A sweep was a lot to hope for. The Toronto Maple Leafs have struggled to make it to make it to the second round for the better part of the past couple of decades, so producing their first series sweep since 2001 wasn’t likely. The Senators forcing a Game Five with their 4-3 overtime win also creates a rare scenario for me to be correct with my Leafs in five prediction. Sadly, this isn’t about me and it is more about the Leafs not showing up ready to close tonight.

Frustration with the overtime, losing John Tavares to an uncalled headshot and the Leafs failing to capitalize on a double minor (partially because of Tavares being in concussion protocol) aside, it was the start of the game that cost the Leafs.

The Leafs demonstrated a collection of their most common errors. They didn’t respect their opponent, and this largely took the form of another common Leaf mistake, becoming too cute with their plays and ignoring what worked for them in the past.

They were undisciplined. Giving up the opening goal on a powerplay because Max Domi opted for faceoff circle stickwork before the puck was even dropped was unnecessary, it gave the Senators an advantage, and the Leafs were never able to produce a lead in the game. The shorthanded goal seemed like an inevitable consequence of the five forward powerplay. At some point the Leafs would be burned, and it came tonight, which is unfortunate for wanting to close out a series, but arguably having a four game buffer to close things out serves as a reminder that things could be worse.

The Leafs were a better team the rest of regulation. The Knies goal was beautiful. The Tavares goal was a reminder of what has been working, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson picking up his second goal of the series and the fifth goal from the Leafs blueline has destroyed the regular season narrative about the lack of production from the point.

Could Stolarz been better? Sure. He’s also earned a night where he shouldn’t have to be the best player. Off of merit in the series you go back to him for Game 5, but out of controlling his workload, I’m curious if Joseph Woll will make his 2025 playoff debut.

Despite the fact that they are in fact the Toronto Maple Leafs and haven’t established much playoff confidence capital, this isn’t a panic situation. They can get this done and Tuesday night it seems reasonable to expect a full engaged team ready to close out the Senators at the Scotiabank Arena.

As for Game 5, I wonder if there aren’t some lineup changes looming. Max Pacioretty isn’t it. At best he was invisible while in the lineup and Nick Robertson, agent of chaos, has a lot more add, even if he requires sheltering. I’m also curious if we see David Kampf find his way back into the lineup as well.

At the end of the night, it was an overtime loss and the Leafs could afford to take a loss in this series. There’s still a one game buffer before panic time.