Team

Betting

The LeafsNation has no direct affiliation to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment, NHL, or NHLPA

Maple Leafs scoring chances through 36 games

By Cam Charron

Apr 4, 2013, 14:03 EDTUpdated: Apr 4, 2013, 13:58 EDT

Comments

Screencap via MLHS

After our last update, the Toronto Maple Leafs were still out-chancing the opposition despite getting out-shot most nights, but their bad habits caught up to them in the third quarter of our shortened season.

I have so far counted 374 chances against the Leafs at even strength, and 356 for the Leafs. That’s just even strength, since thanks to a strong penalty kill, the Leafs are overall out-chancing their opposition once you factor in special teams, 474-469.

For individual differentials for players, as well as some explanation into what a scoring chance is, click past the jump.

In regards to scoring chances, we use the definition from the Copper n Blue:

A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area – loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a “chance for” if someone on his team has a chance to score and a “chance against” if the opposing team has a chance to score.

The home plate area:

Now, the general rule is that “possession begets chances” and “chances beget goals”. When the Toronto Maple Leafs have a high shooting percentage, it doesn’t mean that the Leafs are getting lucky shooting the puck. It means they’re getting lucky with the puck finding sticks in the scoring area.

Ultimately, the teams that take the best chances will score the most goals. I haven’t seen enough evidence to say that generating scoring chances is a repeatable talent: you’ll see later in this post that scoring chance numbers are near identical to Corsi numbers *except in some cases*. If there’s a major difference between “chances” and Corsi, I’d expect Corsi to be more predictable of the future.

To illustrate this visually, I’ve looked at Leaf Fenwick numbers (goals, shots and missed shots) and how they relate to scoring chances over the course of a season. The percentages are the rate of events that went in favour of the Leafs. 10-10 would be 50%, 11-9 would be 55%, and so on:

Shot rate has stayed more consistent than scoring chances this season. Scoring chances are trending downward lately and this is the first 12-game segment of the season where they’ve found themselves in the negative (below 50%) all season. That said, the penalty kill is exceptional and the Leafs have banked enough points that they can back into a playoff spot if need be.

Here are Leaf forward totals. 150 minutes is the minimum to be included:

No.	TOI	Total +	Total –	+ per 20	– per 20	+/- per 20
Nazem Kadri	477.58	117	87	4.9	3.6	1.3
Matt Frattin	249.4	58	46	4.7	3.7	1.0
Leo Komarov	365.82	77	64	4.2	3.5	0.7
Clarke MacArthur	402.53	90	83	4.5	4.1	0.3
James van Riemsdyk	540.58	118	134	4.4	5.0	-0.6
Tyler Bozak	536.03	113	129	4.2	4.8	-0.6
Colton Orr	204.03	32	39	3.1	3.8	-0.7
Phil Kessel	570.35	123	143	4.3	5.0	-0.7
Mikhail Grabovski	503.73	94	114	3.7	4.5	-0.8
Nik Kulemin	500.92	94	114	3.8	4.6	-0.8
Jay McClement	401.8	43	78	2.1	3.9	-1.7

Four Leaf forwards find themselves in the positives, including, uh, Leonid Komarov, who fits the profile of a two-way player in the sense that he’s played a bunch of minutes this year with Nazem Kadri.

You can see at the bottom the Leaf players who have been playing against the toughest competition. Jay McClement is overall a -1.7, but that’s mostly because he doesn’t generate anything offensively. He restricts shots and chances against defensively, which is something Mikhail Grabovski and Nik Kulemin haven’t been able to do this season. The first line get lit up when they’re on the ice.

Here’s the defence:

No.	TOI	Total +	Total –	+ per 20	– per 20	+/- per 20
Cody Franson	459.12	92	70	4.0	3.0	1.0
Mark Fraser	458.58	92	73	4.0	3.2	0.8
Carl Gunnarsson	492.43	101	92	4.1	3.7	0.4
John-Michael Liles	343.28	67	71	3.9	4.1	-0.2
Mike Kostka	534.77	117	129	4.4	4.8	-0.4
Dion Phaneuf	665.65	128	162	3.8	4.9	-1.0
Korbinian Holzer	342.67	64	85	3.7	5.0	-1.2

Carl Gunnarsson is in the pluses despite playing in the top four all season. What a hero. Korbinian Holzer was up on the first pairing for about seven games too long and was sent down when the Leafs finally realized it. In the end, playing with Holzer and Mike Kostka all season has killed Phaneuf’s numbers, although Corsi is more forgiving to Kostka.

If anybody is wondering, Joffrey Lupul and Jake Gardiner haven’t met the minimum number of minutes to show up on the chart. The Leafs have been great with Lupul on the ice this season: 6.6 chances for and 3.7 against per 20 minutes. It would lead the team, but again, small sample. With Gardiner, they’re +4.9 and -6.0 per 20 minutes. Great offensively, weak defensively, but split the difference, give him more time for those numbers to settle and he comes out in the pluses more often than Mark Fraser.

Actually, give him Mark Fraser’s minutes.

For my own reference, here are Behind the Net.ca numbers. If you doubt the Leafs possession problems, note that no regular player has started more than half of his shifts in the offensive zone. Toronto are getting buried next to James Reimer and Ben Scrivens in that respect.

NAME	TOI/60	Corsi Relative	Corsi On	Off Zone Start %	Corsi Rel QoC
Matt Frattin	12.47	15.2	-1.20	44.4	0.181
Clarke MacArthur	13.42	15.1	-2.24	47.3	-0.163
Nazem Kadri	13.27	14.2	-1.63	48.1	0.023
James van Riemsdyk	15.02	4.6	-8.77	48.5	0.989
Phil Kessel	15.84	4.6	-8.84	48.8	0.757
Tyler Bozak	14.89	2.2	-10.41	45.6	0.811
Leo Komarov	11.80	1.4	-8.86	47.0	0.025
Mikhail Grabovski	13.99	0.2	-11.79	36.4	1.605
Colton Orr	6.18	-9.9	-20.88	49.2	-2.108
Nikolai Kulemin	13.91	-11.5	-20.12	36.7	1.969
Jay McClement	11.16	-23.4	-29.87	28.3	0.786

NAME	TOI/60	Corsi Relative	Corsi On	Off Zone Start %	Corsi Rel QoC
Cody Franson	13.91	8.5	-6.27	48.9	-0.894
Mike Kostka	17.25	8.0	-5.27	42.6	0.726
Mark Fraser	13.90	5.8	-8.50	46.0	-0.749
John-Michael Liles	15.60	5.0	-5.94	48.3	-0.076
Carl Gunnarsson	17.59	0.0	-12.18	42.0	0.948
Dion Phaneuf	18.49	-12.6	-19.65	40.6	1.952
Korbinian Holzer	15.58	-24.2	-27.49	40.9	1.471