Few things suck the air out of a room like underwhelming line rush combinations from a practice. That’s very much the case for the Maple Leafs today as Pontus Holmberg and Connor Dewar find themselves on the outside looking in and Fraser Minten has been devoted back to the AHL despite being a bright spot in the Leafs’ bottom six throughout his stint with the NHL club.

The lines in question are:

Sparing the thoughts on the combinations themselves, the issue is with David Kampf, Ryan Reaves, and the sunk cost fallacy approach to the lineup card.

The sunk cost fallacy is the notion of sticking with the strategy/player that has been invested in because they’ve already made a commitment either financially other through time or other means. It’s simply a reluctance to pull the plug on something that isn’t working because you’ve committed to it. I can’t think of a better term for the relationship the Leafs have with Reaves, but the same is true of Kampf who has either been proven to be replaceable by Connor Dewar, Pontus Holmberg, or Steven Lorentz, and going back to him is a hindrance in the progress that could be made with Minten, someone very likely to be the Leafs best option both in the short and long term.

Kampf’s situation is different than Reaves’ given that Kampf has been injured since mid-November and with his return to health there certainly is a bit of curiosity to see him back in the lineup and reassess where he’s at. Giving him ice time over the next couple of weeks won’t be particularly shocking, but there is a need for him to demonstrate that he is the best option for fourth-line centre going forward.

Year to date, Kampf has averaged more penalty-killing time per 60 than other options like Dewar, Lorentz, and Holmberg. He has a better track record on faceoffs, but while his GA/60 on the penalty kill isn’t better than options like Dewar or Knies, he’s still amongst the top four forwards.

Kampf might not have been as useful offensively as Minten, Holmberg, or Lorentz, but his numbers are still better than Dewar’s, and Dewar gets the edge in the faceoff circle as well. None of this really justifies keeping Kampf around when he can be replaced at 1/3 of his price, but since he’s here and the Leafs don’t need to use that potential cap space just yet, he’ll play.

Reaves on the other hand, doesn’t have numbers that can justify him in the lineup and paying him $1.35M to hit about as hard as Nikita Grebenkin and have about as many scoring chances as Dennis Hildeby. An expensive enforcer (that doesn’t enforce) is a prime example of hanging onto a player hoping that they will one day pay off. If the right set of circumstances unfolds in the playoffs, then clearly naysayers will eat their words. Until then Reaves is an incredibly hard sell.

There is certainly something to be said for mixing things up in the bottom six, it’s not like even when Reaves and Kampf have been out of the lineup the Leafs have been getting the secondary offence they’d seek, and having Connor Dewar sit in order to encourage him to do more isn’t a bad thing, nor is giving Pontus Holmberg a reminder that he hasn’t lived up to his play of last season this year, but the most alarming decision is the demotion of Fraser Minten. Unless the Leafs have a plan in place for the young centre, it’s hard to imagine that the Leafs weren’t the right fit for him, immediately, and while this might not be a panic-inducing decision, alarm bells are going off that the Leafs could be committed to using players that don’t give them the best chance to win meaningful hockey games in the spring.

Life is too short for ordinary vacations! For the first time ever, The Leafs Nation is headed on Vacation! Escape with TLN to Nashville, Tennessee, from March 20th to March 23rd, 2025, to watch the boys on the road. Click here for more info and to get your tickets!