There are 17 days remaining in the regular season, and the Atlantic Division race remains unresolved. Ahead of a pivotal matchup Wednesday against the Florida Panthers, the Toronto Maple Leafs hold a three-point lead over the Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning before Tuesday’s slate commences. Toronto has played one more game than both Florida and Tampa Bay and is fighting for its first Atlantic Division title.

The stakes are pretty clearly laid out: although some contrarians have argued otherwise, there’s a clear gap between the Maple Leafs, Panthers and Lightning, and the rest of the division. Winning the Atlantic would likely spell a first-round matchup against the Ottawa Senators, who appear poised to make their first playoff appearance since 2017.

We’re going to examine the remaining schedules for the Maple Leafs, Panthers and Lightning in an attempt to map out the remaining schedule and predict the final standings. If you haven’t begun out-of-town scoreboard watching, now may be the time!

Toronto plays three of its final eight games against Florida and Tampa Bay, with each game operating as a potential playoff preview. There will be a difficult weekend for the Maple Leafs, when they play back-to-back games against the Panthers and the Lightning on the road, where the latter game will prove to be a challenge, against an opponent they’ve beat all season.

It should be safe to assume that the Maple Leafs defeat the Canadiens on April 12, and the Red Wings on April 17, although there are few certainties at this time of year. Columbus is hanging on for dear life in the playoff race and should pose a tough challenge on Saturday. Toronto could be looking at even split during the final eight games and while that may be a pessimistic assumption, the plus-23 goal differential is by far the lowest total of three divisional contenders.

It will be a fight to the end, and Wednesday’s game truly feels like a four-point game, where the Maple Leafs can continue to widen the gap.

Both the Panthers and Lightning embark on four-game road trips to start April, before returning home during the second week of the month. Brad Marchand has entered the lineup, while Seth Jones gets further acclimated to the Panthers’ system, and this is a team well-equipped to repeat as champions. Florida isn’t scoring at the same rate as it used to, with an even goal differential at 5-on-5, but it boasts two Selke candidates in Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, while operating as one of the NHL’s premier defensive teams.

It’s a strange quick in the schedule, but the Panthers play seven divisional games in a row, before hosting the New York Rangers, then play against the Lightning in a game that could determine the division. How Florida emerges from a road stand that includes the Maple Leafs, Senators and Canadiens — who are grasping onto the final wild-card spot — could determine its playoff seeding overall. The Panthers will receive a brief reprieve, when the Red Wings and Sabres come to town in the middle of the month.

Like their cross-state rival, the Lightning are on a four-game road stand to begin April, but there’s a key difference: Tampa Bay faces a relatively weak schedule, with the Islanders, Rangers and Sabres currently outside of a playoff spot.

Nikita Kucherov has been on fire, but the entire Lightning team appears to be firing on all cylinders. Andrei Vasilevskiy has turned back the clock and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him as a Vezina finalist, Anthony Cirelli could win his first Selke Trophy, Brandon Hagel has been an all-around menace, while Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak are operating as a truly elite shutdown pairing. The dynasty could be back on!

Tampa Bay returns home to host Toronto, Detroit, Buffalo and Florida, where it is expected to take home some easy points, with two hard-fought games against its main rivals. Can the Lightning make up the difference?