<p><center></p>
<p class="p1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="553" height="341" alt="" src="https://i0.wp.com/legacy.thenationnetwork.nethttps//theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/Image/kadri%20vs%20bulldogs.jpg?resize=553%2C341"></p>
<p></center></p>
<p class="p1">This is going to be the hockey statistical equivalent of calling the pocket after I&#8217;ve sunk the 8-ball, but not having been in Toronto for the last month, I didn&#8217;t quite get that Nazem Kadri&#8217;s point production was actually a major storyline.</p>
<p class="p1">If I&#8217;ve got this right, through the first 11 games of Kadri&#8217;s season, he had only managed one goal and seven points. That was before this weekend&#8217;s games, where he put up a goal and six assists in three weekend games against Hamilton twice and Abbotsford. </p>
<p class="p1">Even worse, stripping all the games before November 10, Kadri had just three assists in nine games. Not the stuff of &#8220;former first round pick&#8221; material, but I looked into it a little bit further today.</p>
<p class="p1">First, the real good news. Here is a list of Toronto Marlies forwards by shots taken at the net, including their shooting percentages:</p>
<p><style type="text/css">
table.tableizer-table {
	border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
	font-size: 12px;
} 
.tableizer-table td {
	padding: 4px;
	margin: 3px;
	border: 1px solid #ccc;
}
.tableizer-table th {
	background-color: #104E8B; 
	color: #FFF;
	font-weight: bold;
}
</style>
</p>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<tbody>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>No.</th>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Pos</th>
<th>GP</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>SOG</th>
<th>Sh%</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>13</td>
<td>Nazem Kadri</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>6.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12</td>
<td>Ryan Hamilton</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>17.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>87</td>
<td>Leo Komarov</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>24.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>14</td>
<td>Will Acton</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>8.33%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>18</td>
<td>Carter Ashton</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>13.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>Mike Zigomanis</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>9.09%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9</td>
<td>Nicolas Deschamps</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>20.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22</td>
<td>Joe Colborne</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>5.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
<td>Greg Scott</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>11.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11</td>
<td>Keith Aucoin</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>20.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>29</td>
<td>Jerry D&#8217;Amigo</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>15.38%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>39</td>
<td>Greg McKegg</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>18.18%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>23</td>
<td>Matt Frattin</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>37.50%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>15</td>
<td>Spencer Abbott</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>16.67%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25</td>
<td>Kenny Ryan</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>60.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>37</td>
<td>Brad Ross</td>
<td>F</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0.00%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="p1">I don&#8217;t like using goal and point statistics when there&#8217;s nothing around for context, but shot numbers give us a fair indicator of whether a not a player has been performing and just not getting the results. In the notes I&#8217;ve taken during the two games I&#8217;ve watched on TV, I may as well have circled #13 with little hearts. He was creating opportunities, driving play, and getting chances—pucks just weren&#8217;t going in for him. In both games (details <a href="http://theleafsnation.com/2012/10/13/marlies-americans-play-with-two-pucks">here</a> and <a href="http://theleafsnation.com/2012/10/20/toronto-marlies-win-5-0-wayward-hockey-stick-tries-to-eat-greg-mckegg">here</a>), he led the Leafs in total contributions on scoring chances, taking seven for himself and setting up two. </p>
<p class="p1">Kadri&#8217;s been getting good shots: More than any Toronto forward. He&#8217;s just not been getting goals. His line mates have been getting shots. I looked through box scores of every game the Marlies played and using +/- numbers are line mate estimators.</p>
<p class="p1">The counting isn&#8217;t exact because the AHL doesn&#8217;t have on-ice numbers, but I have the Marlies scoring six goals on 15 shots with Nazem Kadri on the ice over the past weekend. That bumped up Kadri&#8217;s and his linemates&#8217; shooting percentage to 15.2% after a slow start (just 4.2%, unsustainably low) that resulted in a scratch against the Iowa Stars.</p>
<p class="p1">I made a handy chart, as I&#8217;m wont to do:</p>
<p><center></p>
<p class="p1"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="550" height="340" alt="" src="https://i0.wp.com/legacy.thenationnetwork.nethttps//theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/Image/Nazem%20Kadri%20fancystats.png?resize=550%2C340"></p>
<p></center></p>
<p class="p2">The 15% number is more sustainable. That&#8217;s about the combined shooting rate of Marlies forwards to this point. In practice, teams don&#8217;t score on 15% of their opportunities (more like 10%) but a good chunk of that is because defencemen take a lot of shots and don&#8217;t get a lot of goals—they shoot from much further away. Last season Marlies forwards shot at 12% and their defencemen struck at 3%. </p>
<p class="p1">Presumably, Kadri&#8217;s been getting more assists than deserved lately, but it won&#8217;t be long until pucks start going in for him. He&#8217;s shot around 13% at the pro level and is at just half of that this year:</p>
<p><style type="text/css">
table.tableizer-table {
	border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
	font-size: 12px;
} 
.tableizer-table td {
	padding: 4px;
	margin: 3px;
	border: 1px solid #ccc;
}
.tableizer-table th {
	background-color: #104E8B; 
	color: #FFF;
	font-weight: bold;
}
</style>
</p>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<tbody>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Year</th>
<th>Team</th>
<th>Goals</th>
<th>Shots</th>
<th>Sh%</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>Maple Leafs</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>Marlies</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>96</td>
<td>17.71%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>Maple Leafs</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>5.88%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>Marlies</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>140</td>
<td>12.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>Maple Leafs</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>28</td>
<td>17.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
<td>Marlies</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>6.25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
<td>NHL</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>79</td>
<td>10.13%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
<td>AHL</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>268</td>
<td>13.81%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
<td>Pro Hockey</td>
<td>45</td>
<td>347</td>
<td>12.97%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p class="p1">I would expect him to trend closer to his 2011-2012 rate. The hope though is that we won&#8217;t make it that far into the AHL season before Kadri is called up to play for the Leafs. <a href="http://theleafsnation.com/2012/9/28/nazem-kadri-responds">Settle down, he&#8217;s got this</a>.</p>

<center>
<p class="p1"><img width="553" height="341" alt="" src="http://legacy.thenationnetwork.nethttps://theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/Image/kadri%20vs%20bulldogs.jpg"></p>
</center>
<p class="p1">This is going to be the hockey statistical equivalent of calling the pocket after I've sunk the 8-ball, but not having been in Toronto for the last month, I didn't quite get that Nazem Kadri's point production was actually a major storyline.</p>
<p class="p1">If I've got this right, through the first 11 games of Kadri's season, he had only managed one goal and seven points. That was before this weekend's games, where he put up a goal and six assists in three weekend games against Hamilton twice and Abbotsford. </p>
<p class="p1">Even worse, stripping all the games before November 10, Kadri had just three assists in nine games. Not the stuff of "former first round pick" material, but I looked into it a little bit further today.</p>
<p class="p1">First, the real good news. Here is a list of Toronto Marlies forwards by shots taken at the net, including their shooting percentages:</p>
<p><style type="text/css">
table.tableizer-table {
	border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
	font-size: 12px;
} 
.tableizer-table td {
	padding: 4px;
	margin: 3px;
	border: 1px solid #ccc;
}
.tableizer-table th {
	background-color: #104E8B; 
	color: #FFF;
	font-weight: bold;
}
</style></p>
<table class="tableizer-table"><tbody>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>No.</th>
            <th>Name</th>
            <th>Pos</th>
            <th>GP</th>
            <th>G</th>
            <th>SOG</th>
            <th>Sh%</th>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>13</td>
            <td>Nazem Kadri</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>14</td>
            <td>2</td>
            <td>32</td>
            <td>6.25%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>12</td>
            <td>Ryan Hamilton</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>14</td>
            <td>5</td>
            <td>29</td>
            <td>17.24%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>87</td>
            <td>Leo Komarov</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>14</td>
            <td>6</td>
            <td>25</td>
            <td>24.00%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>14</td>
            <td>Will Acton</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>14</td>
            <td>2</td>
            <td>24</td>
            <td>8.33%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>18</td>
            <td>Carter Ashton</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>14</td>
            <td>3</td>
            <td>23</td>
            <td>13.04%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
            <td>Mike Zigomanis</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>14</td>
            <td>2</td>
            <td>22</td>
            <td>9.09%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>9</td>
            <td>Nicolas Deschamps</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>13</td>
            <td>4</td>
            <td>20</td>
            <td>20.00%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>22</td>
            <td>Joe Colborne</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>13</td>
            <td>1</td>
            <td>20</td>
            <td>5.00%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
            <td>Greg Scott</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>14</td>
            <td>2</td>
            <td>18</td>
            <td>11.11%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>11</td>
            <td>Keith Aucoin</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>15</td>
            <td>3</td>
            <td>15</td>
            <td>20.00%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>29</td>
            <td>Jerry D'Amigo</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>12</td>
            <td>2</td>
            <td>13</td>
            <td>15.38%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>39</td>
            <td>Greg McKegg</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>13</td>
            <td>2</td>
            <td>11</td>
            <td>18.18%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>23</td>
            <td>Matt Frattin</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>2</td>
            <td>3</td>
            <td>8</td>
            <td>37.50%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>15</td>
            <td>Spencer Abbott</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>4</td>
            <td>1</td>
            <td>6</td>
            <td>16.67%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>25</td>
            <td>Kenny Ryan</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>6</td>
            <td>3</td>
            <td>5</td>
            <td>60.00%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>37</td>
            <td>Brad Ross</td>
            <td>F</td>
            <td>4</td>
            <td>0</td>
            <td>2</td>
            <td>0.00%</td>
        </tr>
</tbody></table><p class="p1">I don't like using goal and point statistics when there's nothing around for context, but shot numbers give us a fair indicator of whether a not a player has been performing and just not getting the results. In the notes I've taken during the two games I've watched on TV, I may as well have circled #13 with little hearts. He was creating opportunities, driving play, and getting chances—pucks just weren't going in for him. In both games (details <a href="http://theleafsnation.com/2012/10/13/marlies-americans-play-with-two-pucks">here</a> and <a href="http://theleafsnation.com/2012/10/20/toronto-marlies-win-5-0-wayward-hockey-stick-tries-to-eat-greg-mckegg">here</a>), he led the Leafs in total contributions on scoring chances, taking seven for himself and setting up two. </p>
<p class="p1">Kadri's been getting good shots: More than any Toronto forward. He's just not been getting goals. His line mates have been getting shots. I looked through box scores of every game the Marlies played and using +/- numbers are line mate estimators.</p>
<p class="p1">The counting isn't exact because the AHL doesn't have on-ice numbers, but I have the Marlies scoring six goals on 15 shots with Nazem Kadri on the ice over the past weekend. That bumped up Kadri's and his linemates' shooting percentage to 15.2% after a slow start (just 4.2%, unsustainably low) that resulted in a scratch against the Iowa Stars.</p>
<p class="p1">I made a handy chart, as I'm wont to do:</p>
<center>
<p class="p1"><img width="550" height="340" alt="" src="http://legacy.thenationnetwork.nethttps://theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/Image/Nazem%20Kadri%20fancystats.png"></p>
</center>
<p class="p2">The 15% number is more sustainable. That's about the combined shooting rate of Marlies forwards to this point. In practice, teams don't score on 15% of their opportunities (more like 10%) but a good chunk of that is because defencemen take a lot of shots and don't get a lot of goals—they shoot from much further away. Last season Marlies forwards shot at 12% and their defencemen struck at 3%. </p>
<p class="p1">Presumably, Kadri's been getting more assists than deserved lately, but it won't be long until pucks start going in for him. He's shot around 13% at the pro level and is at just half of that this year:</p>
<p><style type="text/css">
table.tableizer-table {
	border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;
	font-size: 12px;
} 
.tableizer-table td {
	padding: 4px;
	margin: 3px;
	border: 1px solid #ccc;
}
.tableizer-table th {
	background-color: #104E8B; 
	color: #FFF;
	font-weight: bold;
}
</style></p>
<table class="tableizer-table"><tbody>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Year</th>
            <th>Team</th>
            <th>Goals</th>
            <th>Shots</th>
            <th>Sh%</th>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
            <td>Maple Leafs</td>
            <td>0</td>
            <td>0</td>
            <td> </td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
            <td>Marlies</td>
            <td>17</td>
            <td>96</td>
            <td>17.71%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
            <td>Maple Leafs</td>
            <td>3</td>
            <td>51</td>
            <td>5.88%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
            <td>Marlies</td>
            <td>18</td>
            <td>140</td>
            <td>12.86%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
            <td>Maple Leafs</td>
            <td>5</td>
            <td>28</td>
            <td>17.86%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td>2013</td>
            <td>Marlies</td>
            <td>2</td>
            <td>32</td>
            <td>6.25%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
            <td> </td>
            <td> </td>
            <td> </td>
            <td> </td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
            <td>NHL</td>
            <td>8</td>
            <td>79</td>
            <td>10.13%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
            <td>AHL</td>
            <td>37</td>
            <td>268</td>
            <td>13.81%</td>
        </tr>
<tr>
<td> </td>
            <td>Pro Hockey</td>
            <td>45</td>
            <td>347</td>
            <td>12.97%</td>
        </tr>
</tbody></table><p class="p1">I would expect him to trend closer to his 2011-2012 rate. The hope though is that we won't make it that far into the AHL season before Kadri is called up to play for the Leafs. <a href="http://theleafsnation.com/2012/9/28/nazem-kadri-responds">Settle down, he's got this</a>.</p>

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