There’s no hiding that the final week of the NHL regular season has dragged to some extent with so many meaningless matchups, but Saturday’s matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs features plenty of intriguing storylines and should be an excellent game with high stakes.

After losing in regulation last night versus the Ottawa Senators, the Canadiens still need two points from this matchup to clinch their first playoff berth since 2021. While Toronto would surely love to make its greatest rival play one more meaningful game after tonight’s matchup, it will remain highly motivated as it continues its pursuit of an Atlantic Division title.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Canadiens will be looking to respond after having their six-game winning streak snapped in a convincing loss last night against the Senators. Ottawa outshot Montreal 33 to 22 and held a 16-to-9 edge in high-danger scoring chances.

Last night’s game did not look entirely different than many of Montreal’s other recent matchups, and it was probably due for an opponent to finish quality chances at a higher rate. The Canadiens have received tremendous goaltending down the stretch and have always seemed to come up with clutch goals in the biggest moments of each game, but they have been out-chanced fairly significantly.

Across the last 10 games, the Canadiens have allowed 29.79 shots-against-per-60 and hold an expected-goal share of 45.35%. They hold a negative goal differential in that span, having scored 2.80 goals per game while allowing 3.00 goals against per game.

While the Canadiens’ underlying results suggest they will be the worst Eastern Conference team to qualify for the playoffs, they do hold some characteristics that could make them a scrappy opponent. There will be absolutely no pressure on head coach Martin St. Louis’ side entering the playoffs, and Leafs fans should know full well how freeing that can be in elimination games.

While the Canadiens offensive depth is a weakness relative to contending teams, the arrival of top prospect Ivan Demidov has the potential to significantly bolster the top six. Demidov is expected to take the ice with the Canadiens extras this morning but likely will not make his debut until Monday versus the Chicago Blackhawks.

Jakub Dobes will make the start after serving as the backup on Friday. He holds a +5.8 GSAx rating and .904 save percentage and has played a fairly tough slate of opponents. The betting market gives a strong indicator of how surprisingly excellent Dobes has been. In his 14 starts, the Canadiens hold a +34.6% ROI, as they have won as heavy underdogs in several of those matchups.

The Leafs enter this matchup well-rested after earning a high-quality win on Wednesday over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Toronto proved doubters, like myself, wrong with its gutsy 4-3 overtime win in leg two of a back-to-back over another elite side. The Lightning nearly doubled the Leafs in offensive zone time, but the Leafs did a good job of bending and not breaking in the defensive zone, in part due to their 33 shots blocked as a team.

While it would be nice to see the Leafs carry slightly more of the overall play, they have shown excellent commitment to the small details that tend to result in wins during the six matchups that have followed their embarrassing 6-5 shootout loss versus the Sharks.

The Leafs’ high-salaried offensive superstars will rightfully always be the first to catch heat in every loss, but they don’t tend to get much credit when they do carry the team to strong results. Over the last 10 games, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander have combined for 53 points and a +18 rating.

The Leafs top line of Matthews, Marner, and Matthew Knies seems to be set in stone entering the playoffs and came through with a massive performance in the team’s win over the Lightning. Knies has emerged as a bonafide top-liner with a great skill set to help compliment Marner and Matthews, and his play is one reason Marner will likely finally hit the 100-point plateau this season.

It’s tough to question head coach Craig Berube as his team is on track to emerge as the winner of a highly competitive Atlantic Division race, but his commitment to skating Calle Jarnkrok on the second line instead of Bobby McMann does seem debatable. The second line has had its best results by a decent margin with McMann in that role, and it’s difficult to see how McMann ever played his way off of the unit.

The Leafs will have a rest advantage in this matchup, but it is certainly negated by the team’s injury situation, which has suddenly become quite concerning once again.vToronto will be forced to play with just five defensemen in this matchup, as Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe are both unavailable, and due to salary cap constraints the team can not bring in other options. David Kampf and Max Pacioretty will also remain sidelined due to injury.

Anthony Stolarz has been confirmed as the starter. He holds a .922 save percentage and +20.1 GSAx rating, which rank second and third, respectively, among all goaltenders to play over 20 games this season.

Despite their strong recent results, the Canadiens have been allowing plenty of chances against defensively and have leaned heavily upon strong goaltending to find results. Dobes has been fantastic and has been one of the most profitable goaltenders to bet on in the league.

Given that the Leafs will be fighting an uphill battle playing with only five defenders, the prices on sides look fair to me, as there is enough of a case that Montreal could steal this one to think laying -238 on Toronto provides no value.

At -139, there does look to be value in backing Nylander to record over 2.5 shots on goal in this matchup. He has generated 14 shots on goal across the last two matchups versus the Canadiens, and that trend seems likely to continue given the amount of chances Montreal has allowed recently.