The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to put the finishing touches on an Atlantic Division title when they play as heavy underdogs versus the Carolina Hurricanes Sunday. If the Leafs win this game, they would win the division if the Tampa Bay Lightning drop any points out of their remaining three games or if they were to acquire at least one point from their final two games.

The Hurricanes are locked into a second-place finish in the Metropolitan Division and will hold home ice advantage in a matchup versus the New Jersey Devils in Round One. At the time of writing it has not yet been confirmed if Carolina will rest players in this game or not, which adds a significant layer of volatility in the betting market.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Leafs will look to avoid a letdown as they play the second leg of a travelling back-to-back in this matchup, after earning a well-deserved victory in a highly spirited matchup versus the rival Montreal Canadiens on Saturday evening. Typically this would have to be viewed as one of the most difficult scheduling spots the NHL can offer, but the timing could be favorable as the Hurricanes have little to play for.

The Leafs were the better team last night in a well-played matchup versus the Canadiens. While Montreal’s offensive upside is somewhat limited, the Leafs did a good job defensively in front of Anthony Stolarz, who recorded his third shutout of the season. The Leafs outshot the Canadiens 35 to 15 and led 4.47 to 2.98 in expected goal share.

As Oliver Ekman Larsson and Jake McCabe are expected to remain sidelined, fatigue could be a factor for Toronto’s defensive core in this matchup, after it was forced to play with five defenders in Saturday’s matchup.

While it still seems fair to argue Bobby McMann is worthy of being the second-line left wing over Calle Jarnkrok, the Leafs more balanced top nine was effective last night. The third line of McMann, Max Domi and Nick Robertson held a 95.5% expected goal share, and the Leafs outshot the Canadiens 5-to-1 with them on the ice.

Joseph Woll will get the start after serving as the backup in yesterday’s matchup. He holds a +13.6 GSAx rating and .907 save percentage in 40 appearances this season.

The Hurricanes could be flying a little under the radar as a full-blown Stanley Cup contender entering the postseason, and they are in a similar cohort as the Leafs as a team that nobody will offer all that much credit to for yet another dominant regular season. The Hurricanes hold a goal differential of +40 this season and, as always, hold tremendous underlying results.

Carolina was widely viewed as the greatest loser of the whole Mikko Rantanen fiasco, as it ultimately ended up losing a game-breaking talent in Martin Necas without keeping the services of Rantanen. However, newcomers Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven have both fit in very well with their new side, and the team features a deep offensive core headlined by three high-end pieces in Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Andrei Svechnikov.

The Hurricanes blue line could receive a significant boost from Alexander Nikishin, who was signed to an ELC on Saturday and is widely regarded as one of the best players outside of the NHL. Nikishin has registered 102 points in 128 games over the last two seasons in the KHL and could quite realistically be an impact player right out of the gates.

Carolina will also be playing the second leg of a back-to-back in this matchup after earning a 7-3 victory Saturday over the New York Rangers, which suggests a higher likelihood it opts to rest some key pieces.

Pyotr Kochetkov started yesterday’s matchup, which means it will likely be Frederik Andersen who gets the start in this matchup. Andersen holds a +13.3 GSAx rating and .911 save percentage in 20 appearances this season.

When true to form, the Hurricanes are one of the most irritating opponents to play against in the league, and it’s been well documented how much players hate heading to the Lenovo Center. The Hurricanes have modest incentive to win this game, as it could mean home ice advantage in the late rounds of the playoffs, but it’s otherwise a meaningless game, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Brind’Amour opted to rest some key pieces.

At the time of writing, my lean would be with the Leafs at a massive price of +180, as if Carolina does rest some key bodies, that price will hold plenty of value.

There also could be value in employing the same strategy and betting some of the Hurricanes skaters, such as Jackson Blake and Jack Roslovic, to go over their shot props, as they do generate plenty of shots per 60 but do not typically get that many minutes.

My favorite play is going back to William Nylander to record over 2.5 shots on goal. Typically games in Carolina are among the worst possible matchups for opposing shooters to go over their prop total, but in this meaningless matchup the Hurricanes may not be as tight-knit defensively as we have typically seen. With that in mind, +100 for a prop that hit at -140 in Saturday’s matchup looks to be an overadjustment.

I’d bet Nylander to record three shots down to -105 if Carolina plays most of its top players, but would play it down to -115 if Carolina rests several key skaters.