After an excellent finish to the regular season, the Toronto Maple Leafs did not miss a beat in their first playoff game of the Craig Berube era, as they grabbed a 1-0 series lead with a comfortable 6-2 win over the Ottawa Senators on Sunday.

The Senators will look to respond after what was a sloppy, undisciplined performance in the series opener. Oddsmakers currently have Game 2 priced identically to Game 1, with the Senators being offered an implied probability of 41 percent to win this game and avoid a two game deficit.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Senators were not sharp in Game 1 and certainly looked like a side lacking playoff experience. Shaky play in goal from Linus Ullmark and numerous trips to the penalty box provide the team with two easy excuses, but it was clear that Ottawa did not play a disciplined game and offered more notable defensive breakdowns than Toronto did in Game 1.

The Senators outshot the Leafs 33-24 and generated 13 high-danger chances compared to the Leafs total of 10. However, the Senators breakdowns were clearly much more significant than the Leafs, and they shot themselves in the foot with some needless penalties while trying to assert themselves physically.

Head coach Travis Green will surely be preaching the need for his team to offer a more disciplined performance in Game 2, particularly given that Toronto’s power play was highly effective in netting three goals. The team also surely spent plenty of time reviewing the game tape of their putrid penalty kill and will be eager to clean things up on that front, as at even strength they hung in somewhat respectably.

Nick Jensen and Ridly Greig both missed today’s morning skate, but Green stated that both would be available to play in Tuesday’s matchup. Jensen is a key piece on the Senators shallow blue line, so his status is quite noteworthy from a betting perspective, as Travis Hamonic offers a significant downgrade.

While Ullmark had no chance on several of the Leafs six goals in Game 1, his performance was particularly concerning given that he has not been able to perform in the playoffs historically. The Senators will need to be sharper defensively in this matchup in order to find success, but they will certainly need sharper play from their Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender to have any success in this series as heavy underdogs.

It’s only one game from a series the Leafs are expected to win comfortably, but all of the signs that this postseason could be different in Toronto were on full display in Game 1.

Arguably the greatest reason the Leafs failed to get past the Boston Bruins last year was the horrid performance from their power play. Considering all of the uber-talented offensive stars in the lineup, though, Toronto’s power play should be much more of a strength than a weakness, as was the case in the final two months of the season.

Fans love to point out players that are ‘power play merchants,’ but the reality is power play success is extremely critical to winning the Stanley Cup, as in the most tightly contested series when both teams are playing at such a high level, it can become very difficult to gain much of an edge in even-strength play.

The Leafs five-forward power play unit was highly effective in Game 1 and was rightfully rewarded with three power play markers.

Toronto’s fourth line of Steven Lorentz, Scott Laughton, and Calle Jarnkrok also deserves plenty of credit for a strong performance in Game 1. Laughton was rewarded with his first playoff point as a Maple Leaf after a pretty play on Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s game-opening tally and continues to look like a player who has found his game after an ugly start to his tenure as a Leaf.

One of the few negatives from Toronto’s Game 1 performance was the play of Morgan Rielly, who had a night to forget. While many of the analytics surrounding Game 1 were not overly indicative of the actual game, Rielly and Brandon Carlo were clearly outplayed with just a 24.1 percent expected goal share, and that revolved around Rielly’s shaky puck management.

Anthony Stolarz was tremendous in his first playoff game with the Leafs, stopping 31 of 33 shots faced. While Toronto likely would have still won the game with a lesser performance from Stolarz, he did make some timely saves, including an important breakaway save on Brady Tkachuk while the game was still within reach for the Senators.

The Leafs can certainly be proud of their performance in Game 1 and were clearly the much sharper side. If their power play can continue to be remotely as dominant as it was in the series opener, this could be a pretty short series, as Ottawa likely will not be able to account for that deficit at even strength trying to score versus an in-form Stolarz.

While the Leafs had a good showing in Game 1, the Senators could certainly make this game more competitive if they can offer a more disciplined performance in this matchup. They will also need a sharper performance from Ullmark, who could be in tough in this series as the Leafs top offensive stars look desperate to prove they can perform in the postseason.

Goal scoring does tick down considerably in the postseason, but the most notable reduction in production comes in Games 6 and 7, when things really get tight and the refs put the whistles away.

‘Overs’ are 6-3-0 in the 2024-25 playoffs so far, and I’m not convinced this series deserves to feature a low total of 5.5 just yet. It feels tough to bank on Ullmark being overly sharp in this matchup, but the Senators were able to generate some good looks in Game 1 and could be able to manage a better offensive output in this matchup.

At -110 I see value in backing this game to feature over 5.5 total goals and would play it down to -120.