The Toronto Maple Leafs will host the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday, and will be looking for a more convincing effort after allowing 39 shots on goal in Tuesday’s win over the New Jersey Devils.

The Leafs have played to a record of 12-4-0 on home ice this season, which has allowed them to stay close to the Florida Panthers in the race for the Atlantic Division title.

Anaheim’s losing skid was extended to four games last night in Ottawa, as it suffered its ninth multi-goal loss of the season. Anaheim is 5-4-3 on the road, and 1-2-0 in the second night of back-to-back situations thus far.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

It’s been a fairly disappointing start to the campaign for the Ducks, though their total of 24 points in 27 games is almost exactly on pace with oddsmakers’ preseason betting total of 70.5 points. Head coach Greg Cronin’s team has looked quite flat offensively in generating just 2.37 goals per game, and has been heavily outplayed most nights.

From an offensive perspective, I actually believed the Ducks had the potential to be considerably better this season, and that they did feature an underrated top-nine. That take looks fairly awful, and a number of the Ducks key offensive skaters are in the midst of highly disappointing campaigns once again.

Cronin has drawn some fairly heavy criticism and it does seem warranted to me, as there is an argument to be made that this team had the potential to take the kind of offensive strides we have seen out of the Columbus Blue Jackets this season.

Looking to play a conservative, low-event style of hockey hasn’t actually lead to less chances against for Cronin’s group. They rank last or second last in most possession metrics, and have allowed 33.07 shots against per 60 this season, which is the worst mark in the NHL.

The addition of former New York Rangers captain Jacob Trouba could theoretically bolster their blue-line, if Trouba can find his game in a lower pressure environment. While Trouba’s veteran presence is also supposed to help the development of the Ducks’ young core along, his addition blocks young talents like Pavel Mintyukov and Jackson LaCombe from getting a spot in the lineup.

Lukas Dostal is expected to get the start in this matchup, after resting yesterday versus Ottawa. Dostal has been the Ducks’ most valuable player with a .921 save percentage and 2.67 GAA in 16 appearances.

While the Leafs recent play certainly has not been awful, it has been fairly clear that they have not quite been at the level we saw throughout most of their dominant month of November.

Dating back to their matchup in Florida on November 27th, the Leafs are 4-3-0 but have arguably only played one truly dominant game, which came against the 32nd ranked Nashville Predators. In those seven matchups the Leafs hold an expected goal share of just 42.06%, and the eye-test would agree that most of those games weren’t overly impressive. They have also allowed 3.64 xGA/60 in that span, which is the fourth worst mark in the league.

Part of the problem has been the loss of Jake McCabe, who has been one-half of the best shutdown pairings in the NHL this season. In 221.3 minutes together McCabe and Tanev have allowed just 1.30 xGA/60, which is by a wide margin the lowest rate among units that have spent over 200 minutes together. McCabe will return to the lineup in this matchup.

It looks as though Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner will skate together on the top line, leaving a second unit of Max Pacioretty, John Tavares and William Nylander.

While the Pacioretty-Tavares-Nylander line wasn’t effective Tuesday versus the Devils, they have formed an effective line on the majority of nights they have spent together this season. In 74.9 minutes of even strength play they hold a 62.5% expected goal share, and hold a 62.5% actual goal share. They have also generated a whopping 67.26 shot attempts per 60.

Head coach Craig Berube briefly broke apart his five-forward powerplay unit versus the Devils but it appears that unit will start the game together tonight, and that Nylander will once again skate on both units.

Anthony Stolarz is Thursday’s confirmed starter. He holds a .928 save percentage and 2.13 GAA in 16 appearances this season.

Hosting the Ducks for leg two of road back-to-back is about as soft of a matchup as there is in the NHL. While the Leafs haven’t been overly sharp recently, this matchup provides a good spot for them to carry the vast majority of the play and author a convincing win.

Even though Anaheim holds the fourth highest team save percentage in the NHL, it still ranks 30th in the NHL in points percentage this season. If the Leafs bring a strong effort into this matchup, they should spend plenty of time attacking in the offensive zone and generate a lofty shot total.

Everybody in the Leafs’ locker room should be fully aware that their performance in the first two periods of Tuesday’s game were unacceptable, and they entered that matchup off back-to-back losses. Perhaps that makes it less likely that the Leafs bring a letdown performance in this matchup in which they are gigantic favourites.

The price to back the Leafs to cover the puck-line has moved from -140 to -150 overnight. At -150 I still see some value backing the Leafs to cover the puck-line.

My favorite price still on the board though is backing Nylander to record over 3.5 shots on goal at -125.

Nylander has gone under 3.5 in four of the last five games, but three of those ‘under’s’ came in low-event matchups where the entire team struggled to generate anything shots on goal.

Nylander has averaged 4.25 shots per game this season, and gone over 3.5 shots on goal 62.5% of the time. Playing the Ducks on a back-to-back is about as good as it gets for a volume shooter like Nylander, with the only slight concern being that his time-on-ice may not end up as high as it would in more difficult matchups.

I’m expecting a bounce-back performance from Nylander overall, and believe he will look dominant this matchup versus a team that allows plenty of space in the offensive zone. At -135 or better I see value betting Nylander to record four shots or more.