The Toronto Maple Leafs will head to the American Airlines Center for a heavyweight showdown with the Dallas Stars on Wednesday. Toronto and Dallas enter this matchup one spot apart in points percentage, and are both currently priced at +1100 to win the Stanley Cup.

Toronto will be without Anthony Stolarz in this matchup, who underwent a procedure on his knee Wednesday and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks. Aside from Stolarz, the Leafs are working with the healthiest roster we have seen in months, and that should allow them to improve on their ugly 5-6-2 record on the road moving forward.

Dallas holds the best home win percentage in the league at 13-3-0, but reportedly have a number of skaters who are game-time decisions for this matchup due to illness.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

After a slow start versus the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday, the Leafs were absolutely dominant in the final two periods of the game, earning a 5-3 victory. Toronto held a 22-4 edge in high-danger scoring chances, and generated 5.55 expected goals to the Sabres 2.30. Third-stringer Dennis Hildeby made his third start of the season, and stopped 24-of-27 shots faced.

While Woll may offer somewhat of a drop-off compared to Stolarz, it should not be overly significant. Woll holds a +5.9 GSAx rating and .917 save percentage in 17 appearances this season.

The Leafs hold a respectable record in December thus far, with a record of 5-3-0. They have scored 2.75 goals per game, and allowed 2.63 goals against per game.

While those marks are respectable, they have played only two playoff teams (Washington and New Jersey), and did not look overly dominant in those matchups. Toronto holds an expected goal share of just 47.7% this month, and the ‘eye-test’ certainly agrees they have not looked as dominant as we saw in the month of November.

The good news is the Leafs are now nearly fully healthy, as Calle Jarnkrok and Jani Hakanpaa are the only skaters remaining on the IR, and it’s entirely possible neither ends up in the lineup for the first game of the playoffs.

Based on Tuesday’s practice, it appears head coach Craig Berube is going to keep William Nylander, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner stacked on the top line in this matchup.

It also looks as though Simon Benoit will come out of the lineup in favour of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who skated on the third-pairing alongside Conor Timmins.

The Stars were able to grind out a win over a quality opponent on Monday versus the Washington Capitals without Thomas Harley, and may be in a similar situation Wednesday. Jake Oettinger was brilliant in that matchup, stopping 25-of-26 shots faced and stopping 1.75 goals above expected.

It appears as though the Stars could remain without Harley in this matchup, and that Nils Lundqvist may also be unavailable. As Matt Dumba is also unavailable due to injury, the Stars have recalled defender Alex Petrovic ahead of this matchup, who struggled at the NHL level last season.

In the month of December the Stars hold a 55.4% expected goal share, and also hold a record of 5-3-0.

Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson have both been highly productive over the last two games, and have looked better of late after a slow start to the season. Even without Tyler Seguin in the lineup, the Stars are still skating one of the deepest offensive cores in the NHL.

Defensive depth is a concern relative to last season though when the Stars had Chris Tanev, and that concern could be particularly prominent in this matchup if Harley and Lundqvist are unable to play.

While the Leafs have clearly not played their best hockey in the month of December thus far, this does still look like a good opportunity to back them as an underdog. They enter this road matchup on ideal rest, which should help to nullify the Stars’ home-ice advantage.

Obviously Stolarz’ absence hurts, but Woll has provided excellent goaltending in his own right this season. With that in mind, this is the healthiest we have seen the Leafs’ lineup in quite some time.

It may be the Leafs benefitting from a shorthanded Stars’ lineup, as head coach Peter DeBoer stated a number of Stars’ skaters are fighting an illness ahead of this matchup. Harley in particular would be a highly notable absence, a loss which would become more significant if Lundqvist also can not play.

At +115 I see value backing the Leafs in this matchup, and would currently play it to +110. If the Stars end up with several notable absences, I would then stop at closer to even money. The flip-side of that is that if you do like the Stars to win this game, I’d wait until closer to puck-drop to put bets in.