It’s been an ugly start to the season for the New York Islanders, who sit five points back of a playoff spot with a record of 12-14-7. They have suffered through one of the league’s worst injury situations, but will be skating at close to full health in this matchup. They enter this matchup well-rested, having not played since Tuesday in Carolina.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back, and their third game in four nights in this matchup. There has been some significant travel in between those matchups as well, as they played a road game in Dallas on Wednesday. They are 14-4-0 on home ice this season, and sit atop the Atlantic Division with 44 points in 33 games played.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Islanders have played the vast majority of the season with top forward Mathew Barzal, top-pair defender Adam Pelech and forward Anthony Duclair all sidelined due to injury. They have had a plethora of other absences aside from those three key pieces, which has certainly factored into their disappointing results thus far.

It would be a stretch to say head coach Patrick Roy’s side would not be displaying notable flaws without those injuries, but having those players back in the lineup could certainly drive somewhat of an upswing.

New York’s power play ranks last in the league with a success rate of just 12.1%. Barzal is a zone-entry machine and typically the top-unit runs through him, and they will hope that his return helps power results closer to what we saw in 2023-24, when the Isles’ succeeded on 20.4% of power play attempts.

The Islanders’ penalty kill also ranks last in the league with a success rate of just 71.5%. They have taken the least penalties in the league, which has helped hide that flaw to some extent.

Roy noted after the Islanders’ loss to the Carolina Hurricanes on Tuesday his regret over not spending enough time working on special teams play in training camp, and that special teams play would be a point of emphasis in the off-days leading in to this matchup.

It’s not like the Islanders’ play at even strength has been great, either. Over the last 15 games they hold an expected goal share of just 47.71%, and generated just 2.19 xGF/60.  They scored just 2.99 goals per game in 2023-24, and rank 28th with 2.55 goals per game this year.

Superstar goaltender Ilya Sorokin has not been overly consistent this season, but his overall body of work still suggests he is a better than league-average starter. Sorokin holds a +1.9 GSAx rating and .904 save % in 23 games played, and has been confirmed as Saturday’s starter.

It could prove difficult for the Leafs to match the Islanders desperation level in this matchup, as it is clearly a more important matchup for New York, and the Isles’ hold a significant scheduling advantage. One note which could help provide a little extra motivation to the Leafs’ skater, is that the Islanders’ have won the last four matchups between these two teams.

The game script in yesterday’s convincing 6-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres was fairly ideal for the first half of a back-to-back. Toronto let up a little after taking a 5-1 lead midway through the second period, but were the better team for the vast majority of the game. Toronto held a 13-7 edge in high-danger chances, and received a passable performance in goal from Matt Murray in his season debut.

The Leafs have specifically benefitted from Max Domi and Bobby McMann providing some much needed depth scoring alongside Nick Robertson over the last three games.

While the Leafs’ offensive floor looks to have improved compared to what we saw when their injury report was at its worst, their defensive play has tailed off compared to what it was throughout the month of November. Over the last 10 games, the Leafs have allowed 3.47 xGA/60, as well as 29.4 shots against per 60. Those numbers are particularly concerning when you look at the slate of opponents it has faced of late.

The Leafs rank eighth in team save percentage over the last ten games, and third in team save percentage this season. Joseph Woll has been rock-solid with a +6.9 GSAx rating and .918 save percentage in 13 appearances this season, and is expected to get the start in Saturday’s matchup.

Per Chris Johnston, Auston Matthews will be out of the lineup in this matchup as he continues to deal with a nagging upper-body injury.

The Islanders enter this matchup well rested and at close to full-health, with a number of key bodies back in the lineup including Barzal, Duclair and Pelech. They have played the Leafs quite competitively over the last several seasons, and always seem to be particularly inspired in these matchups. This particular matchup comes in a highly favorable scheduling spot for the Islanders.

The prices on sides in this game have swung drastically since word broke that Matthews’ would be sidelined for this matchup. The Islanders’ were a +140 underdog prior to that news, but are now priced at +115. I do see some value backing the Isles’ to win at +115 at the current price, but actually believe that +140 when it was believed Matthews’ would play held more value, as that appears to be an over adjustment.