Three years ago, Mark Scheifele was recorded saying, “Is there anything better than beating the Leafs?” post-game after a Winnipeg Jets victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Since that point, Toronto has won six straight head-to-head matchups versus Winnipeg, including a 6-4 win in Winnipeg in this season’s initial matchup.

The Jets will surely be desperate to get a win over the Leafs on Monday finally and may be catching Toronto at the right time as it will likely remain without Captain Auston Matthews, as well as star goaltender Anthony Stolarz in this matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Since their incredible 15-1-0 start to the campaign, there is no doubt that the Jets’ play has fallen off considerably. They are 10-9-1 in the 20 games that have followed that historic season-opening run, which ranks 15th in the league in that span.

They hold an expected goal share of just 47.48% over the last 20 games and have allowed 3.35 xGA/60, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league.

Due to the outright dominance of Connor Hellebuyck, who won the Vezina Trophy last season, the Jets’ will always fare well in ‘coin-flip’ type matchups. Not only has that point been proven consistently this season, but it’s also one that has been proven over a much larger sample of play, as the Jets went 52-24-5 last season despite fairly breakeven underlying results.

Over the last two seasons, Winnipeg is 76-41-0 ‘straight-up’ in the regular season, and backing them to win in each of those matchups would have netted a +12.5% ROI. Betting odds revolve heavily around teams underlying results, and it seems that oddsmakers have underrated the Jets’ ability to win games with a breakeven share of the overall run of play over the last two seasons.

The Jets’ lesser run of play has also coincided with the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers, who has earned a more consistent role under new head coach Scott Arniel this season. Ehlers has two points in two games since returning from a lengthy absence and is up to 27 points in 26 games this season. He does a tremendous job helping drive play in the right direction at even strength and is a big part of the Jets’ top-ranked powerplay unit.

Hellebuyck is expected to get the start in this matchup. He leads the NHL with a +19.7 GSAx rating, and his .927 save percentage is tied with Anthony Stolarz for first among goaltenders who have played ten or more games this season. He is currently a heavy-betting favourite to win his third Vezina Trophy this season.

The Leafs will look to respond after a fairly convincing 6-3 loss to the New York Islanders on Saturday night. The Islanders staked a 2-0 lead early in the first and still carried more of the overall chances despite playing with multi-goal leads for the vast majority of the contest. New York generated 17 high-danger chances, allowed 12 and out-shot the Leafs 34-29.

The Leafs were in a bad spot in that matchup, as they hosted a desperate Islanders side, which was on ideal rest. In a ‘one-off,’ I’d argue that Toronto’s performance in that game was nothing to be overly concerned about and that it could be viewed as a good exhibition of just how close the league is.

Despite their 7-4-0 record in December, the Leafs’ play has looked far from convincing, and their strong results have been aided by several soft matchups against true bottom-feeders. The Leafs hold a 48.02% expected goal share in December and have allowed 3.46 xGA/60.

Even if you don’t respect analytics to any extent, it’s fairly easy to make the case that the Leafs’ level has dropped off of late. Their only three truly convincing wins this month came over the Buffalo Sabres and Nashville Predators, and in the tougher matchups, it’s been easy to see that they have been the lesser team.

It has not been confirmed that Matthews’ will miss this matchup, but it certainly would not be overly logical to have him return to play one game before a four-day break in the schedule when he is dealing with a nagging injury.

Joseph Woll is expected to get the start in goal. Woll has not been quite as brilliant as Stolarz this season, but he has been far better than average, with a +5.0 GSAx rating and a .912 save percentage in 14 games played.

While the Jets’ play has tailed off considerably over the last month, it seems likely that we have seen the worst of it. Ehlers’ return should continue to stabilize the results of the second line and boost the upside of the Jets’ top-ranked powerplay unit. They may not prove to be a true defensive juggernaut by any means, but thanks to the dominance of Hellebuyck, they will always fare well in relatively competitive matchups, where they avoid complete defensive collapses.

We should expect the Jets’ to bring a desperate performance into this matchup versus a Leafs side which has owned them for the last three seasons, and it seems like they are catching the Leafs at a good time.

The Leafs’ overall game doesn’t quite seem to be at the level that their recent results suggest. They played a ton of low-quality teams in December and have still not fared overly well in terms of the overall run of play, particularly in matchups against high-quality teams.

At -105, I believe we are getting the right price to back the Jets’ finally getting another win over the Leafs in this matchup, as it does seem as though the Jets’ lesser recent play is being heavily factored into this price. If Woll starts, I would back the Jets to -110 and would take slightly worse numbers if Woll ends up resting.