For the second time this month, the Toronto Maple Leafs will take on the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena. The Red Wings won the last matchup on December 14th but followed it up with regulation losses in three of their next four games, which led to the dismissal of former head coach Derek Lalonde yesterday.

While NHL games immediately following the holiday break have a reputation for looking a little sloppy and lethargic, this one could have a little extra bite, as the Red Wings look to benefit from the ‘new-coach bounce,’ while the Maple Leafs look to snap their two-game losing streak.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Leafs will look to bounce back from consecutive multi-goal losses in this matchup, in which they were outscored by a combined margin of 11-5 on home ice by the New York Islanders and Winnipeg Jets.

While the Leafs were at a significant rest disadvantage in both of those matchups, they were far from the only sub-par performances we have seen from head coach Craig Berube’s side of late. In December, the Leafs own a record of 7-5-0, but that mark likely oversells the team’s actual level of play.

It’s a point that I have beaten into the ground while picking the Islanders and Jets to upset the Leafs last weekend, but the Leafs haven’t had many convincing performances of late. Over the entirety of December, the Leafs’ only truly convincing wins have come over the Nashville Predators and Buffalo Sabres.

The analytics agree with the ‘eye-test,’ as in 12 games this month, Toronto holds an expected goal share of just 46.69%. It has allowed 29.51 shots against per-60 in that span and 3.59 xGA/60.

Based on the talent among the Leafs’ roster and what we saw throughout November, it’s easy to make the case that they have the potential to play at a higher level moving forward, but this recent drop-off in form is certainly concerning.

Toronto will be forced to play without Captain Auston Matthews once again in this matchup, who has been ruled out of both games this weekend after re-aggravating his nagging upper-body injury.

The Leafs will also remain without Anthony Stolarz, which means we should see Joseph Woll get the start. Woll has been solid overall with a save percentage of .908 and a GAA of 2.61 in 15 appearances this season but has allowed three goals or more in four straight starts entering this matchup.

While the decision to fire head coach Derek Lalonde was far from surprising given the Red Wings’ disappointing 13-17-4 start, Lalonde was somewhat of a sacrificial lamb for a roster which looked quite flawed entering the season and would likely have disappointed under any coach.

Todd McLellan is a proven head coach who holds a regular season record of 598-412-134 throughout his tenures with the San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, and Edmonton Oilers.

It will be interesting to see if McLellan’s systemic changes lead to vastly improved results, as many of the Red Wings’ pitfalls this season seem to be based on a roster which was never likely to spend much time possessing the puck.

Defenders Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson are both having fantastic campaigns, but there is an argument to be made that they are the only better-than-average blue-liners on the roster. Ben Chiarot, Justin Holl, and Jeff Petry have all struggled mightily this season, and it’s difficult to say a coaching change will change that.

Aging forwards Patrick Kane, Andrew Copp, and Vladimir Tarasenko have all had disappointing starts to the year upfront. Like the defensive core, it’s hard to say how greatly a coaching change will help those three find better form moving forward.

There are some strengths among the Red Wings’ roster, to be sure, as it features a true number-one pairing with Seider and Edvinsson and some legitimate superstars upfront with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond.

Depth forwards Marco Kasper and Michael Rasmussen have also looked great this season and could garner more consistent roles under new head coach Todd McLellan.

Cam Talbot has been surprisingly brilliant this season, posting a .912 save percentage and 2.79 GAA in 18 games played. He has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup.

This could be a spot which proves favourable to a Red Wings team that will be desperate to turn things around under a new head coach, particularly with the added volatility of it being the first game back after the holiday break.

Over the last two seasons, we have consistently seen short-term improvements from teams that have just fired their head coach to the point where it does seem to be relevant from a handicapping perspective. The three teams that have made in-season coaching changes this season hold a combined record of 22-13-4 in games following the coaching change.

From a more standard handicapping perspective, though, the Leafs have not been in overly good form of late. Their reasonable results in December results have been heavily aided by matchups against lesser competition, and they have been highly unconvincing in tougher matchups.

At +115 or better, I see value in backing the Red Wings to upset the Maple Leafs once again in this matchup.