The Leafs will look to continue their excellent play on home ice Wednesday as they host the Predators. Toronto is 11-3-0 at home this season and holds a record of 8-2-0 over the last ten games.

Those stats might suggest the Leafs are undervalued as only -140 favourites in this matchup, as the Predators are 2-6-4 on the road and 7-12-6 overall.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Predators looked to be overvalued entering the season, as their big-name acquisitions in Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and Brady Skjei are all on the wrong side of the age curve and were not particularly dominant last season.

The fact that three well-run organizations chose to move on from those veteran stars probably wasn’t a great sign, and they haven’t exactly done much to prove their former clubs wrong. The trio of newcomers has combined for a -5 expected goals above replacement rating so far this season.

Those additions didn’t address the Predators’ need for centre depth, which has been a large concern this season. They have played better since Tommy Novak returned to the lineup, though, and the situation is not quite as bad as it was earlier on.

Since Novak returned on November 17th, the Preds’ are 2-2-3. While that mark is far from impressive, it’s come versus a tough schedule of opponents, and the games have been highly competitive.

They have lost three straight games in overtime to the Flyers, Lightning, and Wild, who are all in excellent form. Those teams hold a 19-7-4 record combined over their last ten games. In those three matchups, they hold a 49.21% expected goal share. So, while the Predators aren’t going to be world-beaters this season, they have looked to be trending in the right direction, and some better results in 3-on-3 play would probably make that argument easier to make.

Jeremy Lauzon and Michael McCarron are the only NHL regulars expected to miss this contest.

Juuse Saros has been confirmed as the Preds’ starting goaltender. He holds a .911 save % and 2.62 GAA across 21 games played this season.

The Leafs know full well they weren’t at their best Monday versus Chicago despite hanging in to earn a 4-1 victory. The Blackhawks lead 14-8 in high-danger chances during five-on-five play, and that stat isn’t surprising rewatching the game.

It’s only one game, and it is a close league where even teams like Chicago can play up to the level of elite teams here and there. By no means is that game anything worth panicking over, but one concern that could prove notable once again on Wednesday is the absence of Jake McCabe.

McCabe and Chris Tanev have allowed just 1.3 xGA/60 this season, which is the best mark in the NHL among any pairing to play 200 or more minutes at even strength.

David Alter has reported that McCabe will miss this matchup.

On the bright side, Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies have both looked excellent since returning to the lineup on Saturday in combining for two goals and six points.

The Leafs are getting closer to full health up front, and Ryan Reaves is now eligible to return from his five-game suspension. Alex Nylander is expected to come out of the lineup in favour of Reaves in this matchup. For what it’s worth, the Leafs are 8-6-2 with Reaves in the lineup compared to a mark of 7-1-0 without him this season.

Joseph Woll is expected to get the start in goal. He has played to a .923 save % and 2.13 GAA in eight appearances this season.

The Predators have played relatively well throughout the last three matchups, which have all ended in overtime losses versus teams in good form. They still feature an elite goaltender, and while the roster has some legitimate flaws, chances are we have seen the worst of it results-wise.

The Leafs look like a legitimate contender this season, but I believe the way that the Preds’ are playing right now, they can hang around in a lower event matchup. While the Leafs have handled a horrid injury situation up front well, McCabe’s absence was really notable versus Chicago and is quite concerning.

At their opening price of +135, I was interested in the Predators, as they do seem likely to break through with better results, given how they have played recently. Expect them to bring a desperate, organized effort here, and I believe with Saros in goal, they have the ability to keep the score-line close.

One angle to target that type of game would be backing the game to go to overtime at +325, and I would bet that down to +310.