Friday’s matchup should be a good one, as based on points percentage, the Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs are the top two teams in the Eastern Conference. They played a highly entertaining game on November 13th, in which the Leafs made a spirited comeback before earning a victory in overtime.

With their record of 9-2-0 on the road, including numerous wins over elite teams as heavy underdogs, the Capitals have been the NHL’s most profitable team team to back away from home.

The Leafs are 10-3-0 on home ice though, and enter on a five-game winning streak at home.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

After sneaking into the playoffs last season with a -37 goal differential, the Capitals rank first in the NHL with a +31 goal differential so far this season.

It can’t be stated enough how much more talent Spencer Carbery is working with than last season though, as down the stretch in 2023-24 numerous Hershey Bears were in the lineup in meaningful roles.

The Capitals made high-upside gambles on a number of skaters this offseason, and Carbery deserves lots of credit for getting the most from all of them.

Pierre-Luc Dubois doesn’t seem to be getting enough credit for his excellent start, as he has regularly played tough minutes versus elite offensive units and has done a great job keeping oppositions top stars in check. Jacob Chychrun is getting a lot more fan-fare with eight goals and 15 points, and is playing like a true number-one defender.

Connor McMichael and Dylan Strome have combined for 58 points in the opening 25 games, and will pair up with Tom Wilson tonight to form an all-Ontario born top line.

Aliaksei Protas has also taken significant steps forward this season, and features a rare combination of vision, skating ability and size. Along with McMichael, Protas is one of many examples on the Capitals current roster that suggest you can continue to develop skating ability at the NHL level.

They feature one of the leagues deepest defence corps, a unit which has done a tremendous job driving play the other way with strong puck movement. The Capitals rank fifth in the NHL this season with a 54.61% expected goal share and first in actual goals per game.

Perhaps most impressive about their start is that they have faced a tougher than average slate of opponents. Washington already has wins over Vegas (two), Dallas, New Jersey (two), Florida, and Tampa Bay. They have the third softest remaining schedule in the NHL with opponents holding an average rank of 17.96 currently.

Despite all of their success, the Capitals ended up as one of just two teams with zero players selected for the Four Nations cup. While that sounds shocking, the actual ‘snubs’ are pretty reasonable, but that note could be something that continues to motivate Carbery’s group moving forward.

Alex Ovechkin and Sonny Milano are the only Capitals skaters on the IR.

Since Ovechkin’s injury the Caps’ are 4-3-1, and the powerplay has clicked 34.8 percent of the time. While it’s hard to replace Ovechkin’s shooting abilities, Chychrun is a drastically superior puck handler and has an elite shot in his own right, which has helped provide a more dynamic look to the top unit.

Charlie Lindgren has been confirmed as the Capitals starting goaltender in this matchup, which is somewhat surprising as he has been drastically worse than Logan Thompson. Lindgren holds a -5.2 GSAx and .891 save percentage in 12 appearances, compared to Thompson’s +8.1 GSAx and .913 save percentage.

The Leafs put together yet another effort that coach Craig Berube will be proud of Wednesday, as they allowed just 24 shots against on route to a 3-2 victory. The Predators garnered an early lead off a lucky bounce out front, but the Leafs stuck with it and slowly imposed their will.

Berube reunited Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews to start the third period, which immediately resulted in two goals from the Leafs Captain assisted by Marner. With 36 points Marner is up to sixth in the NHL, and is currently priced at +6500 to win the Art Ross Trophy.

Based on today’s morning skate, it looks as though Marner and Matthews will play with Matthew Knies on the top line in this matchup.

Fraser Minten continues to look excellent, as his elite hockey IQ continues to allow him to make strong plays all over the ice despite being undersized and an average skater. His play suggests he has to remain in the starting lineup when regulars such as Bobby McMann and Max Domi return, and is helping to cover their absences.

Jake McCabe will remain out of the lineup in this matchup, which could prove noteworthy versus a Capitals side which ranks first in the NHL in goals per game.

Anthony Stolarz is projected to get the start in this matchup. He holds a .924 save percentage and 2.23 GAA in 14 appearances this season.

This game provides an excellent measuring stick for both sides to test their mettle versus another Eastern contender, and we should see an excellent matchup.

The Capitals chances look to be a little undervalued though, as they have been all season long. While nobody expected them to be this good, they have looked excellent in all faucets of the game and feature strong depth across the board. They own the best goal differential in the league, and hold superior underlying results to the Leafs.

The Leafs have had significantly worse luck with injuries and could prove to be the better side playing at closer to full health, but they still look to be overvalued based on the betting prices to be this large of a favorite.

Chances are this will be a well contested game from both sides that will swing on a critical play or two. At +120 I’ll happily back a Capitals side which continues to be underrated this season.