Thanks to a solid win over the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday, the Toronto Maple Leafs have the opportunity to reclaim the Atlantic Division lead with a win on Sunday evening as they take on the Chicago Blackhawks.

The Blackhawks will also be playing back-to-back, after suffering a 5-1 loss versus the Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday. Chicago is just 2-4-4 in its last ten matchups, and are currently sitting second to last in the NHL standings.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Despite a late scare in the third period, the Leafs were able to earn two points in the tougher leg of this back-to-back, and will now look to avoid a letdown playing as heavy favourites. While the Leafs built a reputation for failing to secure easy wins under former head coach Sheldon Keefe, they have not played down to lesser competition recently, as they are 8-1-0 in their last nine matchups against teams that do not currently hold a playoff spot.

The Hurricanes played like a team coming off a lengthy layoff in the first period of last night’s matchup, and the Maple Leafs did a good job executing offensively to take a commanding 4-0 lead after the first period. Perhaps some complacency set in late in the third, but the Leafs did a respectable job of nursing their massive lead overall,  as they limited a quality Hurricanes offence to just 12 high danger chances.

Head coach Craig Berube was not forced to offer any of his forwards over twenty minutes of time on ice, which will hopefully prove beneficial in this back-to-back spot.

Alex Steeves provided some much needed bottom-six scoring, netting his first NHL goal and adding a primary assist. The Leafs’ fourth line of Steeves, David Kampf and Steven Lorentz held a 63.9 percent expected goal share in the game. If the trio can play at a comparable level in tonight’s matchup it could provide a meaningful edge, as many of the team’s most common fourth line combinations have been badly outplayed by the opposition this season.

With Anthony Stolarz healthy and in strong form, the Leafs hold a high quality goaltending tandem which will likely prove highly beneficial down the stretch as they push for the division title. Joseph Woll holds a +14.3 GSAx rating and .909 save percentage in 30 appearances this season, and will presumably get the start in this back-to-back spot.

Over the last two seasons we have seen plenty of teams find better form after making a coaching change, but the boost Chicago has received from bringing in head coach Anders Sorensen looks to be minimal at best.

Since dismissing former head coach Luke Richardson on December 5th the Blackhawks are 9-16-5, and have allowed 3.73 goals against per game. Their .383 points percentage under new head coach Anders Sorensen is a slight improvement on the .346 points percentage held under Richardson, however their process does not actually look to be improved.

The Blackhawks have played a far less conservative style under Sorensen, which has helped Connor Bedard be more productive, but it has also lead to the team allowing far more chances against. Throughout the last 15 games the Blackhawks hold the league’s worst expected goal share of 38.96%. They have allowed 35.09 shots per 60 in that span, which is the worst mark in the league by a wide margin.

While picking on Connor Bedard’s defensive game has provided some low hanging fruit to the mainstream media, it’s pretty tough to expect any star forward to find all that much success playing alongside line-mates who would be second or third liners at best on the majority of NHL rosters.

Bedard’s two-way game has plenty of room to grow, but playing on lines that are destined to be outplayed has certainly helped expose his flaws. Bedard skated alongside Ryan Donato and Landon Slaggert last night versus the Blue Jackets.

Arvid Soderblom is expected to make the start in goal, as Petr Mrazek started last night in Columbus. Soderblom is having his best season at the NHL level, with a +3.5 GSAx and .906 save percentage in 25 games played.

The Leafs have done a good job of collecting wins versus softer opponents recently, and this matchup provides them with a great opportunity to continue that trend. It feels as though Craig Berube’s side understands the importance of winning the division this season, and I’m expecting the Leafs to be fully invested despite this potentially being somewhat of a sleepy spot.

The Blackhawks have been the worst defensive side in the league for a meaningful sample of play, and provide an excellent matchup for a Leafs offensive core which suddenly looks quite deep finally playing at full-strength. Toronto’s top-six should be able to create plenty of high quality looks in this matchup, while limiting the Blackhawks stagnant attack.

While Soderblom has been surprisingly effective this season, Woll is still a superior starter and could be the difference in this matchup if the gameplay is surprisingly even.

At +107 I see value backing the Leafs to cover the puck-line, and would bet it down to -107.