The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to win their fourth consecutive matchup when they visit Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Rangers in a marquee matchup.

The Leafs remain entrenched in a close division race with the Florida Panthers, and have the opportunity to reclaim first place with a win in this matchup. Toronto is 7-3-0 in its last road games, and is 16-9-2 on the road overall this season.

After the winning the Presidents’ Trophy last season, the Rangers have been one of the NHL’s greatest disappointments with a record of 29-25-4. They have also been one of the least profitable betting sides, as a $100 bettor would be down $844 backing the Rangers in every matchup this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Leafs no-showed the first half of Tuesday’s matchup versus the Boston Bruins, and found themselves down three goals mid-way through the second period. While their lack of urgency early on was quite disappointing, they showed plenty of resiliency and offensive flair in what was ultimately a 5-4 overtime victory.

Chances are the Leafs won’t be able to replicate that style of win come the postseason, but it is good to see the team’s offensive upside shine through in a rivalry matchup. In their series versus the Bruins last year, the Leafs averaged just 1.71 goals scored per game. The notion that they can’t defend when it counts doesn’t really line up with the actual numbers, but the idea that they can’t create offence as effectively in the postseason is certainly accurate.

One of the greatest reasons for the Leafs’ recent postseason failures has been a lack of depth scoring, and they will surely explore options to bolster their offensive core ahead of the trade deadline. Now that they are playing at full health and have more forwards slotted into appropriate roles though, they have started to offer far more productivity away from the big-four.

Nick Robertson and Pontus Holmberg both scored critical goals in Tuesday’s win, after combining for three goals last Sunday versus the Chicago Blackhawks. Holmberg also tallied two more goals Saturday versus the Carolina Hurricanes.

The offensive upside of the bottom-six will take a hit in Friday’s matchup, as Ryan Reaves will draw back into the lineup to help keep Rangers enforcer Matt Rempe in check. He will take over Alex Steeves’ role on the fourth line.

As William Nylander does appear to be playing in this matchup, Max Pacioretty is the only noteworthy forward on the IR.

The Leafs have averaged 3.30 goals per game over the last 10 matchups and have actually underperformed their xGF/60 of 3.63.

Another major reason for the Leafs’ playoff elimination against the Bruins last year was their inability to capitalize with the man advantage, but their power play has been quite effective recently. They have succeeded on 28.3% of opportunities over the last 10 matchups, and based on Friday’s morning skate, appear to be sticking with the five-forward top unit.

The Leafs’ defence core suffered a significant loss on Tuesday, as Chris Tanev suffered an upper-body injury, and will be sidelined for this matchup. Philippe Myers will draw back into the lineup as a result, and will take over Tanev’s role on the second pairing alongside Jake McCabe. Myers is a downgrade on Tanev, but has been a competent defender this season.

Anthony Stolarz has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. His .926 save percentage is tied for the league lead in save percentage among goaltenders to make over 10 starts, and he holds a +14.1 GSAx rating in 20 appearances this season.

While J.T. Miller has done his part in contributing nine points in eight games, the Rangers still do not look to be overly improved after their recent flurry of trades. They are 5-3-0 with Miller in the lineup, however, that sample has included only two matchups versus teams holding a playoff spot, with one being a heavily depleted Columbus Blue Jackets lineup.

They hold an expected goal share of just 44.36% in those eight matchups, which is pretty awful given the quality of opponents faced.

While Kaapo Kakko and Filip Chytil did not have huge roles on the team this season, both have been highly effective since being traded away while playing for the Seattle Kraken and Vancouver Canucks, respectively. With those two gone, the offensive depth looks quite concerning, and the team has not generated many chances in recent matchups.

Since Miller’s arrival the Rangers have generated just 2.60 xGF/60, which ranks 30th in the NHL. By no means is my point to say that Miller has been the problem, but to note that even with him in the mix it would be generous to say the team’s offensive results have even been average.

Miller missed Thursday’s practice with illness, and is considered a game-time decision for this matchup. Chris Kreider and K’Andre Miller are also listed game-time decisions.

The Rangers will be without top defender Adam Fox, leaving a critical hole on the blue-line. While Fox has had a down year relative to his standards, he has still been a significantly better than average skater. He holds a +13.7 expected Goals Above Replacement rating, which ranks first on the team.

Igor Shesterkin has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .906 save percentage and 2.93 GAA in 42 appearances this season.

From a betting perspective, there are a lot of similarities between this game and the Leafs’ matchup versus the Bruins. It is a spot which could lend itself to a more desperate performance from the Rangers because their need for the two points is far greater, but from strictly from a numbers perspective, it’s hard to see why the Leafs aren’t a larger favourite.

Toronto’s offence has looked much more balanced of late, and is headlined by three truly elite forwards in Mitch Marner,  Auston Matthews, and Nylander. The Leafs have generated significantly more chances in recent matchups than the Rangers have, and that doesn’t seem likely to change given the gap in offensive talent between these two sides.

While the Leafs are clearly the better offensive side right now, the Rangers’ recent defensive results are still relatively even with Toronto’s. While Tanev’s loss will prove notable, it’s still not likely to hurt the Leafs as much as Fox’s loss will.

Stolarz has outperformed Shesterkin quite significantly this season, and Toronto has a clear edge in goal if they continue to perform similarly. Shesterkin’s historical resume suggests his game improves moving forward, but even if we consider the goaltending a wash, though, the Leafs still look to be the better team.

At -123, there is value in backing the Leafs, and fading a Rangers side which has been overvalued all season long. While -123 looks like a good number if only Fox is sidelined, if some of the Rangers’ game-time decisions actually do miss this contest, the Leafs would become more heavily favoured.