The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to remain undefeated on their current four-game Western road trip as they take on the Seattle Kraken in their second-to-last matchup before a lengthy break to accommodate the 4 Nations Face-off.

With Mitch Marner sidelined for Tuesday’s matchup in Calgary, William Nylander stepped up with his first hat-trick of the season. Marner’s status for this matchup is still unclear, which is one reason the Leafs are only -156 favourites at the time of writing.

The Kraken are just 13-13-4 at home this season and are 4-5-1 over the last ten games. They have allowed 3.18 goals-against per game this season but have been far more competent when Joey Daccord (.915 SV%, 2.49 GAA) starts in goal.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

While it’s fair to criticize Nylander, Auston Matthews and the like when they aren’t at their best, they have been excellent in the opening two games of this road trip and deserve plenty of credit. Nylander has netted four goals in the first two games of the road trip, Auston Matthews has put up five assists, and John Tavares has returned in solid form with two points.

In terms of chances generated for and against, these two sides have played to relatively comparable results recently, at least closer than you might expect. However the Leafs roster holds drastically more elite offensive talent, and that strength could prove to be the difference in this matchup once again.

The Leafs’ power play has put up four goals in the first two matchups of this road trip and succeeded on 34.8% of opportunities over the last ten games. Given the talent on the top unit, there is no excuse for below-average results, and if the Leafs are finally going to make some noise this postseason, better results on the man advantage will be critical to their success.

Marner was a game-time decision versus the Flames, and his status for this matchup is unclear. If he is unable to play, Max Domi will likely remain on the top line alongside Matthews and Matthew Knies, after the unit had a strong performance versus the Flames.

Over the last ten games, the Leafs have allowed 3.25 xGA/60 and 3.20 goals against per game where it counts. They have allowed less than three goals only once in that span but should have a good chance of a better defensive performance in this matchup.

Anthony Stolarz may return from a seven-week absence in this matchup, as head coach Craig Berube stated, “I think a good possibility he could play tomorrow” during his media availability on Wednesday. Stolarz holds a +9.3 GSAx and .927 save percentage in 17 appearances this season.

While a huge part of the Kraken’s struggles this season has come down to just how bad goaltender Philipp Grubauer’s play has been, their lack of success has certainly come down to far more than that recently.

Grubauer’s -17.5 GSAx rating is the worst mark of any goaltender in the league this season, and due to an injury to Daccord, the Kraken were forced to start him in 21 matchups. He was sent down to the AHL last week, and since that point, Daccord has started all three games.

Daccord holds a +19.4 GSAx rating and .915 save percentage in 36 appearances this season and is expected to start tonight.

The Kraken scored just 2.76 goals per game last season, which was a key reason for Dave Hakstol’s dismissal as bench boss this offseason. While I thought that Hakstol’s dismissal was well-warranted, the team’s play has not taken steps forward, and if anything, they have simply become far less competent defensively.

Over the last ten games, the Kraken have allowed 3.53 xGA/60 and hold an expected goal share of just 44.33%.

The Kraken’s roster is certainly lacking truly elite offensive talent; the team’s deployment of several forwards has been somewhat puzzling. Chandler Stephenson has been one of the worst top-six forwards in the NHL but leads the team in time-on-ice, as management likely does not want to accept that it made a bad bet offering him a six-million dollar deal in free-agency.

Jared McCann has not been at his best while spending most of the year on the third line, but he still leads the team with 42 points in 55 games. It’s unclear if the Kraken would be willing to move the 28-year-old ahead of the deadline, but if that was the case, he would certainly net a huge return given his team-friendly five-million-dollar contract, which isn’t up until the end of the 2026-27 season.

The Leafs have an excellent opportunity to earn two important points from this matchup and move past the Panthers for the division lead. Losing games versus softer opponents has been a key reason that the Leafs have had tough First Round matchups during the ‘core-four’ era, and is something that has still been somewhat of a flaw during their first season under Berube.

At -156 betting, the Leafs to win this matchup would be my lean in terms of a side or total, especially if that price is available after confirmation that Marner will play.

There looks to be a little more value backing Matthews to score, however, as he looks to get off the schneid versus a Kraken team that has struggled defensively of late. He has generated plenty of chances over the last five games and will likely get his share of quality looks in this matchup, particularly if the Leafs’ power play continues to generate so many high-quality scoring opportunities.