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NHL Betting Preview (Jan. 11): Canucks vs. Maple Leafs Odds
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Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Nicholas Martin
Jan 11, 2025, 13:30 ESTUpdated: Jan 11, 2025, 13:28 EST
For the first time this season, the Vancouver Canucks and Toronto Maple Leafs will go head-to-head Saturday evening, in a nationally televised matchup on Hockey Night in Canada. Both teams will be looking to respond to ugly road losses against the Carolina Hurricanes.
Vancouver extended its losing skid to four games Friday in Raleigh, a matchup where they generated just 14 shots on goal and were shutout by Dustin Tokarski. They are just 2-4-4 over the last ten games, and hold a one-point lead over the Calgary Flames for the final wild-card spot, having played one more game entering Saturday’s action.
The Leafs are 6-4-0 over their last 10 games, and have played to a record of 17-7-0 on home ice this season. Dennis Hildeby is the Leafs’ starting goaltender in this matchup, and as a result their betting price has come down to -169 at the time of writing after reaching -190 prior to Hildeby’s confirmation as starter.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

Canucks vs. Leafs Odds

  •  Canucks Moneyline Odds: +152
  • Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -169
  • Puck Line Odds: Canucks +1.5 (-164), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+145)
  • Game Total: 6 goals (over +105, under -118)
Vancouver Canucks:
Canucks GM Patrik Allvin is reportedly exploring a number of roster changes via trade, and Allvin’s level of desperation will certainly continue to rise if his team continues to play like they did Friday in Raleigh. Carolina held a 12-6 edge in high danger scoring chances, and did a great job of preventing the Canucks from taking advantage of third-string goaltender Tokarski.
While Carolina is obviously an elite team, it was playing its sixth game in eight nights, and was starting AHL goaltender. As the Canucks were finally playing at close to full-health, it looked like a solid get right spot (to me at least), but ultimately ended up being another display of just how greatly the Canucks have fallen off compared to last season.
The Canucks were unable to fly out of Carolina last night due to poor weather conditions, and were forced to fly in Toronto this morning.
Since December 1st, the Canucks are just 6-6-7, and have allowed 3.16 goals against per game and scored only 2.58 goals for per game. They hold an expected goal share of just 47.52% in that span, and rank last in the league in generating only 23.17 shots for per 60.
There has only been five games this season where Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser and Thatcher Demko have all been in the lineup. There’s obviously room for the Canucks’ form to improve when they are all healthy and playing at their best, but that really has not been the case at any point in the season’s first half.
Whether or not Miller and Pettersson are able to find better form moving forward, it still seems quite clear that the Canucks’ lack of quality play-drivers among the defensive core will remain a significant problem that will hamper the team at both ends of the ice. Filip Hronek is reportedly close to returning from his lengthy absence and will help those concerns to some extent, but these problems were still visible even when he was in the lineup, only a little less prominent.
Kevin Lankinen is expected to get the start in this matchup after serving as Demko’s backup last night in Carolina. In 28 appearances this season Lankinen holds a +0.8 GSAx rating and save percentage of .904.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
There were a number of factors which likely contributed to the Leafs’ 6-3 loss versus the Hurricanes on Thursday evening. Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner and Joseph Woll all had off-nights, which is going to happen throughout an 82 game schedule.
The Hurricanes are considered a Stanley Cup favourite for a reason, and played well after a horrible start to the game. The Leafs also appeared due for a step backwards defensively, based upon how many scoring chances they had been allowing against inferior opponents.
Leafs head coach Craig Berube has opted to keep Marner, Matthews and Knies together on the top line despite their combined -17 rating in Thursday’s matchup. It seems logical to not to overreact and split that trio up, as they have been excellent together this season and it continues to look as though Toronto’s best top-six configurations involve that trio playing together. Even after their performance in Thursday’s matchup Marner, Matthews and Knies hold a 16-13 goal differential in 237.6 minutes of even strength play, and have scored 4.04 goals per 60.
Max Pacioretty will return to the lineup Saturday and play alongside John Tavares and William Nylander. The trio have formed the Leafs’ most consistently effective second line, playing to a +2 goal differential and scoring 3.65 goals per 60.
Jake McCabe’s absence from the lineup was notable over the last two matchups, in which the Leafs allowed 4.50 xGA/60 and 32.53 shots against per 60. McCabe and Chris Tanev have formed one the better shutdown pairing in the league this season, allowing only 2.19 goals against per 60 and 1.67 xGA/60.
Based on today’s morning skate, Morgan Rielly will reunite with Philippe Myers on the top pairing, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson will pair with Tanev on the second unit.
Dennis Hildeby will make his fifth appearance of the season in this matchup. He holds a – 2.7 GSAx and .892 save percentage in his initial four appearances, but did author his best performance of the season in his most recent outing versus Philadelphia last Sunday.
Best Bets for Canucks vs Leafs:
This presents as a quite a tough spot for the Canucks, who played last night in Carolina and have dealt with a tough travel situation. They have struggled to generate offence for a fairly large sample, and that may be the case tonight versus a Leafs side which has been excellent on home ice.
I posted the Leafs to win this matchup in regulation yesterday, and that would still be my lean in terms of a side, but I had not counted on Hildeby starting when I initially posted the bet.
My favourite bet at the time of writing is backing Knies to record a point once again, which has been good to us during his current four game point streak, which has coincided with Matthews’ return to the lineup. The number has moved from +100 to -109, but I still don’t believe that’s enough of an adjustment with him playing on a line which has been one of the league’s most productive for a large sample of play.
Best Bet: Matthew Knies to Record A Point -109 (Pinnacle, Play to -115)

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