The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders will complete their season series Thursday at UBS Arena. Each side has one regulation win out of the initial two matchups, which were both played in Toronto.

The Leafs have played to a record of 8-6-2 on the road this season, and have won three straight games on the road entering this matchup. Auston Matthews will remain out of the lineup in this matchup, but is reportedly close to returning to game action and could play this weekend. Matthews told reporters Wednesday he’s unsure if he’ll be able to fully overcome the upper-body injury that has kept him out of the lineup for 14 games.

As it may only take around 92 points to claim the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot this season, the Islanders’ season is not entirely lost yet, despite playing to a record of just 14-17-7. They have 23 games left on the schedule before the trade deadline to author a meaningful push for the final spot, or GM Lou Lamoriello will likely be forced to finally make significant changes.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Leafs were able to hang on for an important win over the Islanders in their last matchup, in what was a closely contested game. Toronto played with a high level of urgency, and showed strong attention to detail defensively in holding New York to just one goal for. The Isles held a 13-10 edge in high-danger chances, and outshot Toronto 31-25.

While there were plenty of positives to point towards from Tuesday’s game, it was another performance in which the Leafs did not carry play the way a true contender should. The ability to win close games is a huge positive come playoff time, but it’s important to consider that playing simply to win coin-flip-type matchups has been a huge part of Toronto’s disappointing playoff results during the ‘core four’ era.

Over the last 15 games, the Leafs hold an expected goal share of 47.18%, and have been outshot by an average of 2.86 shots per game. Shot quality is what matters most, but it is important to consider that this data is designed with that in mind. In those 15 games, the Leafs have played to a record of 9-6-0, and scored 3.20 goals for per game while allowing 3.06 against.

Matthews’ absence from the top-six is currently looking more notable than it did earlier on in the season, particularly as Matthew Knies’ level has fallen off after his spectacular start to the season. David Kampf centered Knies and William Nylander at Wednesday’s practice, and for the time being, it certainly looks as though Nylander is being asked a tall order to carry that unit to strong results.

Joseph Woll is Toronto’s confirmed starter. He holds a .913 save percentage and 2.48 GAA in 17 appearances this season.

The time is now for the Islanders to author a push for the playoffs, or we may finally see Lamoriello sell off veterans such as Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and potentially even captain Anders Lee ahead of the deadline.

The Islanders have fought through one of the league’s worst injury situations and have started to post better underlying results playing at close to full health, but it’s clearly still a stretch to argue they will manage a considerable turnaround this season. In the seven games that they have played with a healthier lineup, they have managed a 51.81% expected goal share, but hold an ugly record of 2-5-0.

A lack of high quality finishing talent continues to be part of the problem, as has surprisingly shaky play in goal from Ilya Sorokin. In those seven matchups, the Islanders hold a team save percentage of just .861.

New York was able to put together a 19-10-4 tear at the end of last season under head coach Patrick Roy to garner a playoff berth, and will look to draw inspiration from that run as it tries to turn around the 2024-25 campaign.

Sorokin has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds an .898 save percentage and 2.92 GAA in 27 appearances this season.

While the Leafs have played to a strong record overall without Matthews this season, the lack of a second high quality centre in the top-six is starting to look more concerning right now. While Woll has been good, he is also offering lesser play than Anthony Stolarz was earlier in the year.

The Islanders brought a strong effort into Monday’s matchup between these sides, and I believe we will see them play a slightly sharper game in this matchup. This game comes at an interesting point in the campaign for the Islanders, as there is still time left to save the season if they can get on a hot streak here now that Barzal, Duclair, and Pelech have shaken the rust off after lengthy absences.

At full health the Leafs are the better team, but I don’t believe they deserve to be favoured in this specific spot with Matthews and Stolarz sidelined. The Islanders have always brought spirited efforts into these head-to-head matchups, and have played the Leafs well thus far this season.

At -105 or better, I see value backing the Islanders to earn a critical win on home ice in this matchup if Woll starts. If Woll does not start, I would play the Islanders down to -115.