The Toronto Maple Leafs will play their most important game of the season when they host the Florida Panthers on Thursday. Toronto will regain first place in the Atlantic Division if it wins this game in regulation, as it enters two points back of Florida, having played one less game.

The Leafs have played to a record of 6-3-1 over the last 10 games, and are 20-11-1 on home ice this season. They should be well situated for this critical matchup, as they have been off since Monday, and will have top goaltender Anthony Stolarz starting.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

While there is plenty of familiarity between these two rivals, both sides will feature notably different lineups than we saw when they last met on November 27th, due to a combination of both trades and injuries. The Panthers won that matchup 5-1, in the lone game between these teams this season.

While the Boston Bruins did the Leafs the favour in earning a regulation win Tuesday over Florida, they certainly stuck it to their rival in dealing away captain Brad Marchand to the Panthers for a modest price of a conditional second-round pick.

Marchand has still yet to make his Panthers debut, and will remain sidelined with an upper-body injury in this matchup. The Panthers will also be without Matthew Tkachuk, who remains sidelined with a groin injury, and Aaron Ekblad, who will be serving game two of a 20 game suspension for PED usage.

Ekblad’s roles on the top pairing and top power play unit have been overtaken by Seth Jones, who recorded his first point as Panther on Tuesday in Boston. While Jones was in the midst of another highly disappointing season with the Chicago Blackhawks prior to the trade, he could certainly find better form under head coach Paul Maurice.

The Panthers have brought in several defenders who could be viewed as a project in recent years, and the vast majority of them have been able to elevate their game after arriving in Florida.

While GM Bill Zito was able to bring in two noteworthy pieces at the deadline, he was not forced to give up his top trade chip in Mackie Samoskevich, who has blossomed into a real player for the Panthers this season. The former first-round pick has put up 10 points over the last 16 games, and is currently skating on the second line and top power play due to Tkachuk’s absence.

Over the last 10 games the Panthers hold the league’s best expected goal share of 64.14, and it’s not particularly close. They have allowed only 2.40 xGA/60 in that span, and allowed only 1.30 goals against per game where it counts, as goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been on top of his game.

Bobrovsky holds a +5.2 GSAx rating this season, and a .907 save percentage in 43 games played. He has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup.

Toronto will look to make a statement in this matchup after offering some highly unconvincing play during its three-game road trip. The Leafs were able to cap-off the trip with a 4-3 shootout victory over the Utah Hockey Club, but showed more signs of weakness in blowing a three goal lead. They allowed 15 goals across the three games, and held an expected goal share of just 38.34%.

Head coach Craig Berube ran a full practice on Wednesday, which will hopefully help the team sort out its recent defensive issues, and provide newcomers Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton more familiarity with the team.

Since February 1, the Leafs are 9-3-1, and the only two teams with better points percentages in that span are the Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning. Results are what matters most, but it would certainly be fair to say that Toronto’s play has not looked overly well-rounded, and it has leaned on elite finishing to mask other problems.

In those 13 games, the Leafs hold a 48.87% expected goal share, and have allowed 3.64 xGA/60. Regular season xGA/60 was one of the top indicators of playoff success last season, as three of the league’s top-six made it to the conference finals.

Chris Tanev is a game-time decision, and his return would boost the Leafs’ defensive upside tremendously. If Tanev is to remain sidelined, it looks as though Berube will stick with a top-pairing of Morgan Rielly and Carlo, and a second pairing of Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

Stolarz has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup. He holds a .921 save percentage and +15.3 GSAx rating in 24 appearances this season.

This matchup offers a great spot for the Leafs to prove that they are better than they have shown lately, and offer a more well rounded game versus the defending champions. The market has moved heavily against the Leafs, as they are now +121 underdogs after this game opened as a pick-em.

While I’m not sold on the Leafs recent play, I still believe this team has more to give, and will offer a sharper performance in this matchup. Therefore I’m not interested in fading Toronto at the current price of +121, even though the Panthers look to be the cup favourite once again.

There does look to be value backing Samoskevich to record over 2.5 shots on goal at +146, something he has done in seven of his last 15 games played. He ranks third among all Panthers skaters in shot attempts per 60 over the last 10 games, which is an important metric when you consider how much more significant his current role is.