The Toronto Maple Leafs stabilized with a convincing 6-2 win over the Calgary Flames on Monday, and will look to make a statement when they host the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday evening.

While the Leafs hold a respectable 5-4-1 record over the last 10 games, they have been heavily outplayed by a number of high-quality opponents in that span. That includes the Avalanche, who bested the Maple Leafs 7-4 in Colorado on March 8th.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Avalanche have been one of the NHL’s hottest teams recently and seem to be elevating their game at the right time, ahead of what could be a lengthy playoff run. They are 8-1-1 over the last ten matchups, and hold an expected goal share of 57.90 percent in that span, which ranks second in the NHL.

Oddsmakers currently view Cale Makar as a heavy favourite to win the Norris Trophy, which would be the second of his young career. If Makar can score five goals in the Avs’ final 14 games, he will become the first defender to score 30 goals since Mike Green in the 2008-09 season.

Nathan MacKinnon is considered the third betting favourite to repeat as the Hart Trophy winner at +800, which is a number that may come as a surprise to many observers. While MacKinnon currently leads the league with 103 points, he has spent the majority of his minutes alongside Makar, Toews and other elite talents, has 27 less goals, and eight more empty net points on empty-netters.

Head coach Jared Bednar continues to try and deploy MacKinnon’s line alongside Makar and Devon Toews defensive pairing as much as possible, forming a unit which continues to dominate seemingly every opponent. While that has been the case all season long, suddenly the Avs’ look to a be much more formidable side when MacKinnon and Makar aren’t on the ice together.

Avalanche president of hockey operations Joe Sakic paid a hefty price to acquire Brock Nelson from the New York Islanders prior to the deadline, bolstering a second line which has been a weakness this season. Nelson has put up just two assists in his first five games with the team, while playing alongside Valeri Nichushkin and Jonathan Drouin at even strength.

Sakic also gambled that defender Ryan Lindgren could turn things around in a softer role, after the 27 year-old struggled mightily with the New York Rangers this season. Lindgren is currently lining up with Sam Malinski with Josh Manson sidelined due to injury,  and Malinski and Lindgren hold a 60 percent expected goal share together thus far.

While it’s looking plausible that Lindgren might turn things around in a cushier role, what seems most apparent right now is that Malinski has blossoming into a quality defender in his sophomore season.

Mackenzie Blackwood is expected to start in goal in this matchup. He holds a +12.4 GSAx rating and .915 save percentage in 47 games played this season.

The Leafs were able to respond to their embarrassing loss coming versus the rival Ottawa Senators with a convincing win over the Flames on Monday, but still have plenty to prove right now as they take on a higher quality opponent. Toronto has not beaten a playoff team since February 22nd, when they bested the Carolina Hurricanes in the first matchup after the 4 Nations Face-Off break.

Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander were all dominant on Monday, combining for eight points and 10 shots on goal. Nobody is going to be overly moved by a performance like that versus a weaker opponent, and it will be interesting to see if they are able to follow it up as they take on a true Stanley Cup favourite.

Whether it was during head coach Sheldon Keefe’s tenure with Toronto, or this season under Craig Berube, the offensive lines have always been the main point of contention among the team’s most passionate observers.

The team’s best option is to play Matthews, Marner and Matthew Knies together on the top line, and keep John Tavares alongside William Nylander on the second unit, which seems to be how the Leafs will line up in this matchup. Nylander is capable of being fairly productive regardless of his role, which makes inserting him on the third unit tempting. Still, it makes more sense to play him in the top-six and lean more heavily upon those two units.

While it feels like the main talking point from the Leafs’ recent losses is always a lack of productivity from their highest salaried forwards, the team has plenty to prove defensively right now. They hold a 3.40 xGA/60 rating over the last ten games, and allowed 3.70 goals against per game where it matters.

Joseph Woll has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a +11.5 GSAx rating and .905 save percentage in 35 appearances this season.

This matchup provides a huge opportunity for the Leafs to start fine-tuning their game ahead of a critical postseason. They have struggled mightily versus other Stanley Cup favourites recently, and their defensive play in those matchups has been particularly concerning.

Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton played well versus Calgary on Monday, and could be becoming more acclimated to playing for their new side. It’s easy to say that on paper the Leafs roster has the potential to play better than we have seen lately, and for that reason I’m not quite solid on betting Colorado at -127 in this matchup.

Matthews had one of his most dominant performances of the season on Monday, racking up two goals and an assist, while generating 10 attempts on goal. While this is a tougher matchup, I’m counting on him being heavily involved in this matchup once again. At -114 I see value backing Matthews to record over 3.5 shots on goal, and would play it to -119.