The Toronto Maple Leafs will wrap up a busy week with a date at Bridgestone Arena versus the Nashville Predators Saturday evening. The Leafs will be looking to extend their winning streak to four games, as they play their fourth game in six nights. The Predators have been much more respectable on home ice this season, as they hold a record of 17-14-3 compared to their record of 8-21-5 on the road.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

It’s been a positive week for the Leafs, who enter Saturday’s slate tied with the Florida Panthers in the division thanks to a three-game winning streak. The Leafs played a strong road game on Thursday in New York, in which they held a 9-7 edge in high danger scoring chances and generated 2.71 expected goals to the Rangers total of 1.96.

The Leafs did an good job of getting bodies to the front of the net to help make life tough for Igor Shesterkin, and did a better job than the Rangers at boxing out in the net-front area. While they did not have all that many chances overall, Shesterkin was not at fault on any of Toronto’s four goals.

Toronto’s second line of William Nylander, Bobby McMann and John Tavares was absolutely dominant in even-strength play versus New York. They finished with a 92.6% expected goal share in 13:31 of time-on-ice together, and combined for three goals and seven points. In 64.7 minutes together this season they hold a 72.1% expected goal share, and have outscored opponents 5-2 where it counts.

Head coach Craig Berube has been forced to adjust his offensive units a lot this season, due to both a lack of health and effectiveness from certain units at times. While the optimal way to configure the bottom-six still remains unclear, the current top-six seems to be the best combination based on everything we have seen this season. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies have generally been the team’s most effective top unit, while McMann continues to look like the best option to play with Tavares and Nylander.

Brandon Carlo had another strong outing versus the Rangers, and looks to be settling in with Morgan Rielly on the top pairing. If those two can continue to offer more effective play, Toronto’s top-four will be looking pretty solid, as Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev have consistently formed an a high-end shutdown tandem. General Manager Brad Treliving did not acquire Scott Laughton to win regular season games, but the start of Laughton’s tenure as a Leaf has certainly been problematic to say the least. He’s put up zero points in his first seven games with the team, and holds a -3 rating overall.

Joseph Woll is expected to get the start in goal. Woll has bounced back from a pair of ugly performances versus the Pittsburgh Penguins and Vegas Golden Knights with three straight wins, including a spectacular performance on Wednesday versus the Colorado Avalanche. He holds a +14.0 GSAx rating and .908 save percentage in 36 appearances this season.

The 2024-25 season has been a complete disaster for the Predators, and the only measure of solace for the organization is that they have bottomed out badly enough to ensure that they will end up with a high selection in this years entry draft. The Predators entered the season with a betting total of 99.5 points, and can already finish with no greater than 86 points.

No team has been more overvalued in the betting markets this season, as it has taken a lot of time for oddsmakers to accurately adjust to how bad the Predators have been. At 25-43 straight up, betting the Predators in each game would yield a 34.9% ROI.

It does seem pretty fair to criticize the work of GM Barry Trotz, coming from someone who did predict this team would be far worse than expected. To varying extents, none of Brady Skjei, Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault have lived up to their contracts, which shouldn’t be entirely surprising as all three are on the wrong side of the age curve and were far from dominant during the 2023-24 season.

Trotz made a pair of highly debatable moves in placing defender Dante Fabbro on waivers, and trading away Alexandre Carrier to the Montreal Canadiens for Justin Barron.

As Captain Roman Josi is currently sidelined, the Predators blue-line currently looks to be quite a concern. Based on today’s morning skate, they will offer a top pairing of Brady Skjei and Nick Blankenburg, a second pair of Marc Del Gaizo and Justin Barron, and a third pairing of Spencer Stastney and Andreas Englund.

The Predators have allowed 3.26 goals against per game this season, and while they have not been overly sharp defensively, shaky play in goal has also been an issue. Juuse Saros enters this matchup with a -5.6 GSAx rating and .896 save percentage in 50 appearances, after posting a -3.0 GSAx rating last season. Saros is expected to get the start in this matchup.

Winning the division will offer a considerable boost to the Leafs’ chances of finally making a deep playoff run, which is something the players and coaching staff have commented on. It seems unlikely that the Leafs will look to past this soft matchup, and these teams don’t seem to be as close as the current betting odds indicate.

For a variety of reasons, the Predators have been the most overvalued team in the NHL this season. Their trio of high salaried acquisitions have been a disappointment, and Trotz has dealt away a number of underrated skaters who played key roles during the Predators’ surprisingly strong 2023-24 campaign. Josi’s injury has only made matters worse, and suddenly they feature a well below average defensive core.

Nashville has also received well below average play in goal from Saros, who’s now offered below average results for nearly two entire seasons.

There has not been a more profitable team to bet against this season than the Predators, and this matchup seems to provide a good opportunity to stick with that trend. At +102 I see value backing the Leafs to win in regulation.