The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to avoid a letdown when they visit the SAP Center to face off against the 32nd-ranked San Jose Sharks. The Sharks were able to earn a 3-2 shootout victory when these teams last met on March 3rd in Toronto, but were in a highly favourable scheduling spot.

The Leafs should be desperate to avoid dropping any more points against the league’s worst team in this matchup, as they are currently tied atop the Atlantic Division with the Florida Panthers.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

While Toronto still has plenty to prove right now against higher quality competition, Tuesday’s dominant 7-2 win over the Philadelphia Flyers was a step in the right direction, and it gets a great opportunity to author another big offensive performance in this matchup.

The Leafs second line of William Nylander, Bobby McMann and John Tavares combined for 10 points in Tuesday’s big win, and it continues to look as though the ideal top-six arrangement has been settled. In 87.1 minutes together, Nylander, Tavares and McMann have outscored opponents 8-2, and scored 5.51 goals per 60.

It remains to be seen whether or not we see the top two units dominate the same way come the postseason. On paper though, the Leafs have one of the best top-sixes in the entire NHL, given the current form of each of the ‘big four’ and the excellent complimentary play from McMann and Matthew Knies.

It looks as though head coach Craig Berube will stick with the same offensive units in Thursday’s matchup, which makes sense considering the team’s performance on Tuesday.

It would have been nice to see Laughton finally get off the board and record his first point with the Leafs on Tuesday, but it was still a step in the right direction for the third line. The Leafs outshot the Flyers 7-1 in 11:10 with the third unit on the ice and held a 62.7% expected goal share.

Joseph Woll was in the starter’s crease at the morning skate, and is expected to get the start. He holds a +13.4 GSAx rating and .907 save percentage in 37 appearances this season.

Macklin Celebrini continues to look even better than expected, which has made another horrific season from the Sharks more stomachable for their fans. At 19-42-9 overall, the Sharks will likely end up with a top-two selection at the 2025 NHL entry draft as well.

Trading away top defender Jake Walman has left a massive hole on one of the league’s worst blue lines, but acquiring a first round pick from Edmonton for a player San Jose was originally paid a second-round pick to take on is an excellent piece of business.

With Walman out of the equation, the Sharks are currently offering a top pairing of Mario Ferraro and Shakir Mukhamadullin, and a second pairing of Luca Cagnoni and Vincent Desharnais. Head coach Ryan Warsofsky’s side has allowed a league-worst 3.67 xGA/60 this season, but that certainly should not be a knock on Warsofsky given the team’s severe lack of talent.

While the Sharks have been pretty awful defensively, their league-worst goals against average has much to do with the horrible goaltending they have received since trading away Mackenzie Blackwood to the Colorado Avalanche. Georgiev has allowed 3.57 goals against per game this season and holds a save percentage of just .876 in 42 appearances.

The Leafs have absolutely no excuse to come up with anything less than two points from this game. Despite this being a soft matchup, Toronto should hold a high level of urgency after already losing once to this Sharks team and collapsing on Saturday in Nashville, and it seems unlikely that the Leafs will play down to their opponent in this particular spot.

The Sharks have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season, and dealt away their best defender in Walman at the deadline. They will have the league’s second-worst starting goaltender in net Thursday with Georgiev set to start, and even if this game features surprisingly even gameplay, the goaltending disparity could prove significant.

At a price of +101, there looks to be value backing the Leafs to cover the puck line in a spot where the Leafs high-end offensive stars should be able keep rolling.