The Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs will kick off what should be an incredible second round of the NHL Playoffs Monday evening when they battle in Game 1 at Scotiabank Arena.

The Leafs are slight underdogs in Game 1 after the defending champion Panthers authored a five-game series win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in Round 1. Aaron Ekblad will be serving the second of a two-game suspension in this matchup, while the Leafs are expected to be at full-strength with only Jani Hakanpaa listed on the IR.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The opening round of the NHL playoffs did not disappoint, as five of the eight series required at least six games and ended with highly compelling elimination games. From a neutral perspective, the Battle of Florida was arguably the biggest disappointment, as the Panthers rolled over the Lightning in five games.

Based on all regular season indicators, it seemed that this year’s edition of the Lightning was much improved compared to the team Florida bested in Round One last season and looked likely to give Florida a stiff test.

From a statistical perspective, the Panthers and Lightning were fairly evenly matched in Round One. The Panthers held a 50.8% expected goal share at even strength, but Sergei Bobrovsky was able to outperform Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal, and the Panthers’ power play was significantly more effective.

Bobrovsky finished with a save percentage of .901 in Round One and a +1.3 GSAx rating, while Vasilevskiy stopped just .872 percent of shots faced and held a -1.3 GSAx rating.

The Panthers’ power play succeeded on 25% of opportunities, while their penalty kill did an excellent job keeping the Lightning’s high-powered power play unit in check, killing off 88.9% of power plays in the series.

Special teams will play a key role in deciding who emerges victorious in this series. Under Paul Maurice, the Panthers have typically taken a hefty amount of penalties due to their commitment to setting the tone physically and playing with an edge.  Chances are the Leafs’ power play will get a decent amount of opportunities to work early on in this series, and making the Panthers pay if they cross the line will be critical.

Matthew Tkachuk returned from a lengthy absence in strong form versus the Lightning. He put up three goals and five points in the series while offering accountable defensive play skating alongside Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues.

With Ekblad out of the lineup in Game 5, the Panthers offered a second pairing of Niko Mikkola and Dmitry Kulikov and a third pairing of Uvis Balinskis and Nate Schmidt. The second pairing of Mikkola and Kulikov was outplayed quite badly in that game, and offers up one potential flaw in a rock-solid lineup for the Leafs to try and expose.

Many observers seem to be down on the Leafs for letting the Ottawa Senators back into the series in Round 1, but there’s a case to be made that the experience of winning a high-pressure Game 6 could be a good thing for this team. By no means was Toronto overly bad in its Game 5 loss, and it showed no signs of panic during a well-played sixth game from both teams.

When the Senators battled back from two goals down in Game 6, the Leafs did not unravel and broke through with the series-winning goal only two minutes later.

The Leafs’ overall process has been respectable or even strong during many of their recent playoff eliminations, but they have struggled to own the biggest moments of each series. Finding success in that type of moment could provide a boost for a group that has failed to do so in seasons past.

A lack of production from the Leafs’ top offensive stars has always been a key reason for their disappointing playoff exits with this core, but all of their highest-salaried forwards were highly productive in Round One. Depth scoring from guys like Max Pacioretty and Max Domi could put this team over the edge, but a look at recent Cup winners’ team statistics helps further the case that the Leafs will need their big dogs to remain at their best in order to finally author a deep run.

A key reason Toronto’s top forwards were far more productive than in years past was the effectiveness of its power play, which succeeded on 35.3% of opportunities in the series. The Leafs’ power play was dominant in the final third of the season and should never be anything but an asset considering the talent on the top unit.

Anthony Stolarz followed up his incredible regular season with a solid showing in Round One, finishing with a .901 save percentage and +0.1 GSAx rating.

Many of the reasons why this Leafs team might finally be different came to light in Round 1. The power play was excellent, and their ultra-talented offensive stars produced at the rate that is expected, while they received steady play in goal from Stolarz, who has been a game changer all season.

As they look to kick off the series with a win on home ice and take advantage of Ekblad’s absence from the lineup, there looks to be value in betting into the idea that this Leafs team is different, considering that they are still slight underdogs.

It’s scary to fade the Panthers given all that they have proven over the last two playoffs, but in this specific spot there looks to be more value riding with the Leafs on home ice at +105.