The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to grab a 3-0 stranglehold in the series, just as the Florida Panthers did when these teams met in the 2022-23 postseason.

The Leafs are considerably larger underdogs in Game 3 as the series shifts to Sunrise, as they are currently priced at +190 after closing as +118 underdogs in Game 2.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Considering the betting prices on sides in this matchup, it’s clear that oddsmakers are not entirely sold on the process in which the Leafs have won the first two games of this series. Out of all four upcoming games in Round 2, the Leafs are the largest of any team by a fairly significant margin.

As outlined prior to Game 3 of the Leafs’ opening round matchup versus the Ottawa Senators, NHL teams looking to avoid a three-to-nothing deficit in the series have fared quite well historically.

Since the 2015-16 postseason, teams playing in Game 3 looking to avoid a three-to-nothing deficit in the series are 29-20, and betting on those teams in each of those games would have yielded a +17% ROI. The Leafs were obviously able to buck that trend in Game 3 versus the Senators, and based on the betting prices in this game, there is clearly a “must-win” tax baked into the Panthers betting price in this matchup.

Across the opening two games of the series, the Panthers have generated 32 high-danger scoring chances compared to the Leafs’ total of 19. They have also generated 75 scoring chances compared to the Leafs’ total of 43.

Score factors have played some role in those numbers, and Craig Berube’s defensive system is designed to limit full-fledged defensive breakdowns, so it’s certainly not been as uneven as those numbers suggest. Still, it does appear as though the Leafs are finally benefitting from some decent puck luck, as well as facing off against middling goaltending at the right time.

The Leafs have scored on 17.19% of shots taken in this series. They have an ultra-talented offensive core capable of creating the type of chances that are finished at a high rate, but it’s still unlikely they will be able to finish chances at this rate moving forward.

Toronto offered a well-balanced attack in Game 2, as Max Pacioretty scored the team’s first power play goal of the series, while Max Domi contributed some much-needed depth scoring. The big dogs still did their part as well, as William Nylander scored once again, while Mitch Marner came up clutch with the game-winning goal.

The only one of the Leafs’ top forwards who’s been somewhat underwhelming during this postseason run has been Auston Matthews, and even still he’s played a key role on a top line that has been tremendously effective. Toronto’s top line of Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Matthew Knies has outscored opponents 7-to-1 this postseason and has spent plenty of time playing against opposing top units.

Joseph Woll finished with a +0.78 GSAx rating in Game 2, stopping 25 of 28 shots faced. He held a +4.3 GSAx rating in three appearances versus the Bruins last postseason and was tremendous during this regular season, finishing with a +19.9 GSAx rating.

Paul Maurice’s group will surely come out flying in this matchup, and whether or not the Leafs’ defence corps is able to manage the puck down low and make plays under pressure should prove critical. While the Panthers have carried more of the overall play in this series, the amount of true defensive breakdowns each way has been quite even, and the Leafs’ high-end offensive players have done a better job of converting on their opportunities.

Sergei Bobrovsky has not been overly sharp in this series, and Woll and Anthony Stolarz have combined to offer better play in goal. Bobrovsky holds a -2.9 GSAx rating this postseason and a save percentage of .876.

The Panthers’ third line of Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell, and Brad Marchand has been absolutely fantastic this postseason. They have outscored opponents 8-to-1 and hold an expected goal share of 63%. The Leafs have done a pretty strong job against the top line of Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Carter Verhaeghe, so it would not be overly surprising to see Maurice try to chase some different matchups in Game 3 now that he has the benefit of last change.

The Panthers probably played well enough to earn a split in Toronto and will surely be at their absolute best in Friday’s matchup. The trends regarding teams playing down 2-0 in the series also support the idea that teams playing in a “must-win” type of spot are tough to beat.

With all of those factors in mind, it’s still hard to believe the Leafs are up to +190 in this matchup. Their offensive stars have all looked quite dynamic this postseason and can give the team an avenue to steal games in which they are outplayed to some extent, and Woll still looks to be a rock-solid option in goal.

The Panthers will win this game more often than not, but the betting prices suggest the Leafs only have a 34% shot of winning, and that does not seem to be giving Toronto enough credit. At a hefty price of +190, I see value in backing the Leafs to steal this one on the road.