A depleted Toronto Maple Leafs roster suffered a deserving loss against the Florida Panthers on Wednesday, but they get a great opportunity to author a response Saturday versus another Eastern Conference contender. Auston Matthews is set to make his return to the lineup, adding to the excitement of what should be an excellent matchup.

The Lightning are off to a solid 12-8-2 start, and have been dominant on home ice this season with a record of 7-3-1. They snuck out a 3-2 overtime win yesterday afternoon over a desperate Nashville Predators side, but saved Andrei Vasilevskiy for this tougher divisional matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

Wednesday’s matchup proved to be too tough of a situation for the Leafs to handle, as they were outplayed by a Panthers side which worked furiously to snap a four game losing skid. A response in this matchup would allow the Leafs to reclaim the division lead, and it does set up as an easier matchup than their game in Sunrise.

While the Leafs played to a record of 7-2-0 without Matthews, it would be asinine to suggest they are actually a better team without their captain and top forward. They will also receive another significant boost as Matthew Knies is expected to return to the lineup in this matchup.

Toronto will still be without a number of regular forwards such as Max Domi, Max Pacioretty and Bobby McMann, but by a wide margin Matthews and Knies were the most meaningful absences and the offensive core looks significantly better entering this matchup.

The Leafs did an excellent job defensively to help achieve excellent results without Matthews, and will hopefully keep the same attention to detail in their own zone with Matthews back in the mix. In nine games without Matthews they allowed just 2.60 xGA/60, and received a league leading .928 save percentage from Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz.

Based on yesterday’s practice Matthews and Knies are set to join William Nylander on the top line, leaving a second unit of Pontus Holmberg, John Tavares and Mitch Marner. For the time being this seems like a smart way to proceed, as Marner and Tavares have seemed to show some chemistry playing together.

The Leafs are expected to go back to the five forward power play unit we saw briefly prior to Matthews injury in this matchup.

Joseph Woll is confirmed as the Leafs starting goaltender in this matchup. He has played to a .922 save percentage and 2.00 GAA in seven appearances this season.

The Lightning made some more tough decisions this offseason, as they allowed Captain Steven Stamkos to walk, and traded Mikhail Sergachev to Utah to bring in JJ Moser and Connor Geekie. Those moves helped accommodate the addition of Jake Guentzel, and both seem to be working out quite well.

Guentzel has fit in well as expected on the top line, and has put up 21 points in 22 games with nine goals. Moser has been effective on the top pairing alongside Victor Hedman, and Geekie is showing plenty of promise centering the top line.

Those moves have helped to negate the natural decline of a roster which has been thinned thanks to the salary cap, and even still there are some holes to nitpick among the Lightning’s current group.

Over the last ten games the Lightning hold a 55.13% expected goal share, and played to a record of 5-3-2. Part of that span came with Brayden Point out of the lineup, who has been fantastic when healthy this season and is the club’s second most important skater.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has bounced back with a better start to the season. He holds a +5.4 GSAx and .910 save percentage across 18 games played.

The Leafs roster suddenly looks much more threatening with Matthews and Knies back in the mix, and should start to generate more even strength offence moving forward. Matthews is an excellent defensive player, so by no means should his addition mean the Leafs get away from what has brought them success of late.

The Lightning have been excellent on home ice this season, but their home ice advantage is likely mitigated by the fact that Toronto is not in a bad travelling spot, and that they played last night in Nashville.

The Leafs are offering a superior roster depth this season, and as long as the goaltending holds should prove to be the better team this season. I think we will see a good response from Berube’s group in this favorable spot, and I’m happy with the price to back the Leafs at -139.

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