The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to build on a convincing 4-0 victory over the Boston Bruins, as they host their fellow division rival Detroit Red Wings on Friday. Toronto will remain without Auston Matthews in this matchup, and is 36-19-2 in games without him since he entered the league.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

Though it’s felt like a highly unconvincing start to the season that has many observers questioning the “Yzerplan”, the Red Wings hold a solid record of 6-5-1 and would be back in a Wildcard spot with a win Friday.

The Red Wings power play has succeeded 25% of the time this season, which has helped to mask the fact they aren’t generating many chances at even strength. They rank last in the league in expected goals for per 60 at 2.16, and have scored only 2.75 goals for per game where it counts.

Detroit’s goaltending tandem of Alex Lyon and Cam Talbot has combined for a .908 save percentage, which is the fifth-best team save percentage in the NHL. Plenty of those looks have come from quality areas, and Red Wings goaltenders also hold a +6.3 goals saved above expected rating.

Aging defenders Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry have struggled mightily on the second pair in particular. They hold a 37.3% expected goal share in 118.9 minutes of even strength play, and are allowing 5.2 xGA/60.

The Red Wings have allowed 34.12 shots against per 60, which is the second highest mark in the NHL. They rank bottom five in time of possession and time spent in the defensive zone.

This is a good spot scheduling wise for the Red Wings, as it is just their third matchup in the last six days, and fourth since last Wednesday. They also enter with a clean bill of health.

Cam Talbot has been confirmed as the Wings starting netminder. He has played to a .929 save percentage and 2.45 GAA in seven appearances this season.

Toronto enters off one of its most complete efforts of the season. A number of key players stepped up with Matthews sidelined, and it received another stellar goaltending performance from Anthony Stolarz. The Leafs allowed only two high danger chances against in even strength play in the matchup.

Over the last five games the Leafs hold a 60.46% expected goal share, which is the best mark in the NHL in that span. They have allowed just 25.78 shots against per 60 in that span, and an xGA/60 of 2.35.

Outside of an ugly showing Sunday in Minnesota, the Leafs newly formed second line of William Nylander, John Tavares and Max Pacioretty has been highly effective. In 52.5 minutes together at even strength the trio has played to a 66.7% expected goal share and generated 4.60 xGF/60.

Anthony Stolarz is the projected starter, as the Leafs will host the Montreal Canadiens on Saturday.

While the Leafs should be able to carry the majority of the play in this matchup and spend plenty of time attacking in the offensive zone, I’m not sure there is much value backing them at -190. The Wings feature an elite powerplay and are getting great goaltending, and could hang around in this matchup as a result.

It’s also hard to believe that the Leafs will actually continue to be a better team with Matthews sidelined, and his absence leaves a significant hole down the middle.

I was high on the angle that Nylander would step up in Matthews absence Tuesday versus the Bruins, and I’m happy to go back to that well today. Though the prop I outlined was a loser (over 3.5 shots on goal), Nylander looked good in netting a goal and an assist in 18:47 of time on ice.

The Red Wings allow the second most shots against in the league, and allow plenty of space on the perimeter in the defensive zone. For those reasons I’m happy to go back on Nylander to record four shots or more at -130, and would play it down to -140.