After a high-quality win over the rival Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday, the Toronto Maple Leafs will look to avoid a letdown as they travel to Columbus for a date with the Blue Jackets. At -205, the Leafs are the biggest favourite by a larger margin than they’ve seen this season, though Anthony Stolarz will likely take on the role of backup in this matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles bets below.

An inability to win the Atlantic Division has left the Leafs with tough first-round playoff matchups and has certainly contributed to their inability to make deep playoff runs in the “big-four” era. Toronto has earned a reputation for playing down to its competition and did not fare well as heavy favourites under former coach Sheldon Keefe in the last three regular seasons. This is a good opportunity to start erasing that reputation and avoid what already looks like a very difficult two vs three matchups in the Atlantic.

Stolarz was sharp once again last night versus the Lightning and now holds a +5.3 GSAx across five appearances this season, with a .938 save percentage. It seems probable that Joseph Woll will make his season debut in this matchup, though that is yet to be confirmed. Woll played to a +7.2 GSAx (goals saved above expected) last season, with a .907 save percentage (SV%).

Teams that receive good goaltending always get credit for defending at a higher level than they actually are, though it is always somewhat of a chicken or the egg-type debate. Analytically speaking, the Leafs actually haven’t been a better side defensively under Craig Berube. They hold a sixth-worst xGA/60 rating of 3.70 this season and are allowing 11.1 high-danger chances against per game. The eye test tells us those numbers may be a little harsh, but it’s still easy to say that Stolarz’s elite play has been a huge part of the Leafs, allowing just 13 goals through six games.

Sometimes life just isn’t fair, and that has to be the sentiment surrounding the Blue Jackets right now. They are now suffering through a lengthy list of injuries, including captain Boone Jenner, Kent Johnson, Dmitri Voronkov, and Erik Gudbranson.

Dean Evason’s group has displayed a quality compete level thus far, even if their 2-3-0 record is disappointing. The three losses came against the Panthers and Wild, who both look great in the early going of the young season.

Though the team is offering an acceptable competition level, their lack of quality NHL talent has been a concern. They hold a 45.34% expected goal share but have managed a goal differential of zero.

Pascal Vincent was relieved of his duties this offseason and one of the reasons I’d argue that was a fair decision was his inability to place young talents into consistent roles. It’s interesting to see that Evason has shaken up his offensive lines entering this matchup with that in mind, including adjusting his top line, which had been among the league’s most effective trios this season.

Cole Sillinger skated in Yegor Chinakhov’s spot on the top line at practice yesterday alongside Sean Monahan and Kirill Marchenko. Monahan, Marchenko, and Chinakhov have combined for 18 points in five games and held a 79.6% expected goal share in 59.9 minutes of even-strength play. Sillinger has meaningful offensive upside and was a 12th-overall pick for a reason. His offensive development has stalled over the last several seasons, but he could benefit from the opportunity to work alongside one of the hottest duos in hockey.

Daniil Tarasov has been confirmed as the Blue Jackets starter in this matchup. He has played to a -0.7 GSAx and .876 save % this season and held a .908 save % in 2023-24.

The Blue Jackets aren’t getting much respect in the betting market ahead of this matchup as they are priced as massive underdogs, despite the fact the Leafs are playing back-to-back without Stolarz in goal. I’m not quite willing to back the Blue Jackets, but I do think they can contribute to the game’s total of 6.5 goals with a reasonable offensive night.

Four of the Blue Jackets opening games have come against notably low-event teams, and I think that has made their offensive process look a little worse than it might be moving forward.

All of Toronto’s superstars have looked great recently, though, and should find a way to get plenty of quality looks toward Tarasov.

At -120 or better, I see value in backing this game to go over the total of 6.5 goals. I also see value in backing Sillinger to score a goal at +410, as he has the offensive upside to thrive in a highly favourable role on the top line.