After having their five-game winning streak snapped by the San Jose Sharks on Monday evening, the Toronto Maple Leafs will look to respond in a tough road matchup versus the Vegas Golden Knights.

The Leafs will be at a scheduling disadvantage in this matchup, as they will be playing for the fourth time in six days, and have already logged a ton of miles since the 4 Nations Face-Off. They are currently tied with the Florida Panthers in a hotly-contested Atlantic Division race, but have one game in hand.

The Knights are 22-6-3 on home ice, which has powered them to a four-point lead over the Edmonton Oilers in the Pacific Division. Oddsmakers currently have them priced as the eighth-favourite to win the Stanley Cup this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

While dropping a point Monday against the lowly San Jose Sharks is far from ideal, it’s hard to be too critical of a team with a record of 8-1-1 over the last ten games. Losing to the league’s worst team will always sound off alarm bells in Toronto, but the Sharks have been far more competitive better than their record suggests recently, and were catching the Leafs in a favourable spot.

Toronto outshot San Jose 27-22, while the Sharks held a 12-10 edge in high danger scoring chances in Monday’s matchup. By no means was it a performance to be proud of, but it should not change anyone’s current stance on the team one way or the other.

The Leafs now have an opportunity to make amends for earning just the one point on Monday, and earn a win over a team considered to be a true Stanley Cup contender.

Toronto has shown strong play in a number of different areas of the game during its recent 8-1-1 tear. While the Leafs hold a fairly middling  51.65 percent expected goal share in that span, their elite offensive stars have finished chances at a high-rate, while they continue to receive excellent play in goal.

The Leafs are finally playing at close to full-strength offensively has lead to excellent offensive results of late, averaging 3.90 goals per game over the last 10 matchups, and hold a 14.58 shooting percentage.

Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, John Tavares and William Nylander have all produced a point-per-game or better in that span, while Mitch Marner has recorded eight points in ten games. Pontus Holmberg, Nick Robertson and Max Domi have chipped in some meaningful depth scoring, which has been one of the team’s greatest concerns this season.

At the time of this filing, it’s unclear whether Joseph Woll or Anthony Stolarz will start for the Maple Leafs. Stolarz seems to be viewed as the team’s top option which suggests he will start in a tough matchup, though Woll is more rested after serving as the backup versus San Jose.

Stolarz has posted a +16.7 GSAx rating and .926 save percentage in 22 appearances this season.

Chris Tanev is unlikely to be activated from injured reserve, while Max Pacioretty is also expected to remain sidelined with an undisclosed injury.

The Knights have once again made T-Mobile Arena one of the toughest venue’s in the league for opponents to play in, which has generally been the case throughout their entire existence.

While the Knights have been incredible on home ice this season, they are in fairly modest form right now with a record of 5-3-2 over the last ten games. Vegas has been close to a polar opposite to Toronto in that span, as it holds a dominant 59.27 pervent expected goal share, but holds a team save percentage of just .885, and scored only just 8.67 percent of shots on goal.

While the Knights’ team shooting percentage and save percentage do appear due for positive regression, their roster does hold less high quality finishing talent than the Leafs, and Adin Hill and Ilya Samsonov have been worse than both Leafs goaltenders in each of the last two seasons.

Jack Eichel has been one of the league’s very best skaters this season, and has been downright fantastic at both ends of the ice. Even still, the Knights top-six clearly does not hold quite the same level of skill that Toronto’s does, though it does have more players who’s two-way game has proven effective in playoff hockey.

Shea Theodore still ranks third on the team in points, and his loss has been noteworthy for a team that has scored only 2.80 goals per game over the last ten matchups.

Hill is expected to get the start in goal. He holds a +13.1 GSAx rating and .906 save percentage in 36 appearances this season.

The Leafs may not be playing the most entirely dominant brand of hockey right now, but their combination of elite offensive talent and high-quality goaltending continues to lead to strong results. They have been effective versus other elite teams recently, as they are unbeaten in their last three games playing as underdogs, which have come against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Edmonton Oilers, and Carolina Hurricanes.

The Knights have been tremendous on home ice this season and have a scheduling advantage, which could help them carry more of the overall play. However the Leafs hold more high-end offensive threats, and could steal the game with another strong goaltending performance.

The Leafs have also been excellent in games versus Western Conference opponents, with a record of 14-7-2 this season. The Knights have struggled versus teams from the East, with a record of just 10-11-2.

The Leafs look to be more live than their current price of +142 suggests, and I see value backing them to earn a tough road victory at that price.