FORT LAUDERDALE –  The Florida Panthers haven’t trailed 2-0 in a series since the 2023 Stanley Cup Final – a matchup the team ultimately lost in five games to the Vegas Golden Knights.

But in their past five matchups, they’ve been nearly perfect. That includes a five-game series against Tampa Bay in the first round, entering as the bottom seed but playing like a serious Cup contender once again. As the Cats trail 2-0 to the Toronto Maple Leafs, it’s been a bit of a wake-up call. But if any team can overcome adversity, it’s the one that’s coming off a Stanley Cup championship, with much of the core still intact.

According to the NHL, teams that started a series down 2-0 on the road have gone 35-270 all-time – a .115 win percentage. So to say Friday night’s game is a must-win is an understatement.

“Every game is a big one for sure,” Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov said after Friday’s morning skate. “I know we didn’t get the job done in Toronto. We had some good moments in the games, but we also had bad moments, so we learned from those. Now we have a chance to win. a great opportunity and challenge to be on home ice and be a little better than what we were in Toronto.”

Brad Marchand has been the story of the series for the Panthers, registering a goal and two assists. The same can be said for Finnish linemates Eetu Luostarinen and Anton Lundell. Beyond that, Barkov and Sam Bennett have a goal each, but no assists. Matthew Tkachuk has just one helper, while Sam Reinhart is still looking for his first point. So, for all the comments about Toronto’s core over the past few years, it’s actually Florida’s big stars that are lagging behind.

“They’re doing a really good job defending us and blocking a lot of shots,” Barkov said. “We have to find a way sometimes where we maybe don’t shoot, but get the puck back deep behind the net and go from there.”

Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has also let Florida down. His -4.46 goals saved above expected at 5-on-5 is the worst of any goalie in the playoffs, and far below Joseph Woll’s 0.85 for Toronto. Over the course of the playoffs, Bobrovsky’s -4.11 is 18th out of 20 goaltenders. In comparison, he had a 7.31 GSAx a year ago.

Florida has scored on 40 percent of their power plays so far in this series, and have one of the best penalty kills at 87.5 percent. But Toronto has outscored Florida 8-4 at 5-on-5 despite holding just a 34.33 expected goals-for percentage.

The Panthers are back home, though, and that should give them plenty of motivation to step up their game as the heat starts to build. You know Tkachuk and Marchand will be especially amped up – the type of energy you expect from any playoff matchup. Toronto is playing with house money, but the Panthers are just playing to survive. Clash those together and it’s not easy picking a pre-game winner.

There’s no such thing as an easy game in the playoffs, and the Leafs know that.  Consider Game 3 to be the most important game of the series – for both teams.