John Tavares signed a seven-year pact with the Toronto Maple Leafs on Canada Day 2018, which accelerated the team’s contention timeline, sending the fan base into a frenzied zeal. Tavares’ signing officially marked the beginning of the Core Four era, with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander all graduating into their primes during this period. There was a palpable sense of confidence emanating from the team and Leafs Nation alike, with a pathway to the Stanley Cup firmly in sight. This quartet was simply too talented, and you could start drawing up your parade routes at Trinity Bellwoods Park. The fireworks in the air that night could’ve just easily been for Tavares, and the premonition of an incoming title.

It’s impossible to fast forward seven years, but we don’t need to summarize the era in painstaking detail: consecutive seven-game losses to the Boston Bruins were difficult to stomach to be clear, but there was still an enduring sense of hope, optimism and belief in the Core’s superior gifts. A shocking first-round loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets planted the seeds of contempt. Surrendering a 3-1 lead to an inferior Montreal Canadiens side may have been the nadir. And the Leafs kept ticking, believing in the incremental approach over a radical disruption — which may not so be radical in hindsight — in the form of a seismic trade involving one of the headlining stars. There’s no shame in losing to the red-hot Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Tampa Bay Lightning, a coping mechanism to be sure in the spring of 2022, before a five-game loss to the Florida Panthers in the second round two years ago may have crushed some hopes and dreams.

And still, Toronto entered the final season of Sheldon Keefe’s tenure with the attendant promise things this core would get the Leafs over the proverbial hill. Keefe was fired after the Leafs lost in seven games to the Boston Bruins, while Craig Berube’s style of play promised better results and pragmatic thinking when the playoffs came around. And for a few weeks, there was ample reason to believe this was the case. Max Pacioretty came alive as a secondary scorer, Nylander was shooting the lights out, while Marner and Matthews took over a few games against an inexperienced Ottawa Senators side, generating some belief that the Leafs’ headlining duo would finally provide the postseason output that the hockey world has been waiting for.

After taking a 2-0 series lead against the Panthers, the Maple Leafs have completely stumbled. Marner submitted the worst game of his career on Wednesday night, while Matthews wasn’t much better, although he’s been granted some leeway as he’s fighting through a lingering injury. Nylander is still living up to his end of the deal, although Panthers defenceman Gustav Forsling is pushing him to the limit, and Tavares has been a steadying presence, although he clearly has the least weighty expectations at this stage of his career.

It’s referendum day for the Core Four. And this certainly involves a true referendum on Maple Leafs president Brendan Shanahan, who has overseen the entire era without much supervision. Keith Pelley was appointed as MLSE CEO and it’s clear that he wants a return on the company’s greatest, eponymous investment. Shanahan brought in his head coach (Berube) and general manager (Brad Treliving) of choice, and this era of Leafs hockey is inextricably linked to his decision-making and pedagogy. Incrementalism isn’t a bad thing, but eventually Shanahan’s patience with his Core Four stars may also be the quality that gets weaponized against him, if the Leafs falter this weekend. And his philosophy will have to crumble too, as Marner could potentially walk with nothing in return for the team, after betting on himself and thus far, coming up well short. Seismic change could be underway for a supremely talented Leafs team that routinely performs worse than the sum of their parts.

There’s a misguided notion that the big, scary Toronto media want the Maple Leafs to falter and this simply couldn’t be further from the truth. The passion really does unite us all, and watching the Core repeatedly run into a wall in the summertime hasn’t been easy to watch, even from the ostensibly neutral observers. For the fan base, it must be even more excruciating. Toronto pushed all of its chips in for this win-now window and that’s really what comes down to: win now, or the Core Four has simply expired after a seven-year trial.