<p>July 4th felt like the official dog days of summer point of the NHL offseason. Capfriendly only recorded 4 new contracts, 2 of which were re-signings and 1 was a deal announced the day before. The free agency market consists of Oliver Kylington, Alex Nylander, and players who likely now have their agents cold calling European teams. The good news is there will now be sporadic trades. The bad news is that things actually happening has dropped down to one or two pieces of news across the entire league per day. We can now officially go outside (after getting caught up on The Leafs Nation content, of course.)</p>
<p>Here are a few of my stray thoughts before I enter the land of hammocks and campfires.</p>
<h2>Not moving forward</h2>
<p>The signing of Chris Tanev was a good move. After the fall off in play from TJ Brodie last season and even more so since the injury to Jake Muzzin, the Leafs have needed a top pairing calibre defenceman. Tanev represents the Leafs upgrading from last season but in this was a move to get them back to where they were before. This doesn&#8217;t feel like the Leafs improving, this seems like an attempt to stop the bleeding.</p>
<p>Anthony Stolarz is a great gamble in net. He&#8217;s had a couple of seasons with a not so good one sandwiched in between that offer a lot of hope regarding taking on a bigger role. A goaltending change can always be the missing piece or fall completely flat. It is no different than the gambles taken on Jack Campbell and Ilya Samsonov before him, but the excitement is still there. It still feels more like a status quo move than the Leafs beefing up their team.</p>
<p>Throw into the mix that the Leafs are also down Tyler Bertuzzi and don&#8217;t appear to have the cap room to replace him. Brad Treliving has had a better summer than in 2023 but a big move that signals the Leafs are going for it is still lacking.</p>
<p>Maybe that was Berube. While I like Berube and I&#8217;m glad to see the Maple Leafs move on from Sheldon Keefe, I&#8217;m not sure this constitutes a big splash either.</p>
<p>I&#8217;d argue the Leafs prematurely committing to Max Domi and Timothy Liljegren prevented the opportunity to go big. Both are good players and players I won&#8217;t complain about the Leafs bringing back, but $6.75M in cap space certainly would have aided the Leafs in swinging for the fences. Now the Leafs are in a position where they can certainly use the $2M they have in cap space ($1M if you assume the re-signing of Connor Dewar at a reasonable price) to their advantage along with opportunities to send salary out. There is also the $8.8M in summer cap overage allowance that can help, but also complicate things further.</p>
<p>The Maple Leafs also have limited resources. I wouldn&#8217;t doubt that, despite his contract, Timothy Liljegren&#8217;s future with the Maple Leafs is still in question and there should be some interest in him. The Leafs have Nick Robertson who actively wants to move on and could have some value. The Leafs also own a 2026 1st round pick, and the Panthers&#8217; 2025 2nd round pick, and while these might not be highly sought after trade chips, the Leafs could still be doing some shopping in the trade market in hopes of a significant improvement.</p>
<p>There is also the possibility that the Leafs do move on from Marner although that is less a solution and more a fresh can of worms. It&#8217;s difficult to see the Leafs making a big splash or heading in a new direction without moving part of their core four forwards, but much like the Leafs summer to date it could just be moving pieces around than taking a step forward.</p>
<p>For a GM who prides himself on building teams in the offseason and limiting the in-season tinkering, you&#8217;d have to imagine there is still more to come from the Leafs. If that&#8217;s it for the Leafs aside from the pending Dewar and Robertson signings, the Leafs are in a position where they can try their luck at trade deadline upgrades.</p>
<h2>What is the value of Nick Robertson?</h2>
<p>The Maple Leafs took a pretty aggressive stance against the idea of trading Nick Robertson. I&#8217;m not sure how much I believe they are genuine in their interest to keep him and instead think this was a subtle nod to the rest of the league that Nick Robertson won&#8217;t be traded away for nothing.</p>
<p>Assuming that someone was to offer sheet Nick Robertson, it would likely come at the $1.51M-$2.29M range which requires a 3rd round pick as compensation. This would presumably be the bare minimum of what the Maple Leafs would take back as return for Robertson. Given that Robertson is a 22-year-old that scored at a 20-goal pace last season, I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s crazy to suggest that value especially when he wasn&#8217;t getting much in the way of ice time.</p>
<p>Draft picks are nice, but the Maple Leafs could use a cheap 20 goal scorer and if it is not going to be Robertson, they probably want to find another alternative. Maybe the solution is to look for other teams with unsigned RFAs that could make sense for the Maple Leafs. If they can&#8217;t get a 15-20 goal guy, maybe they can address their need for centre depth instead.</p>
<p>Players like Barrett Hayton and Joseph Veleno represent centre options that could be of interest to the Maple Leafs. Hayton especially seems like a strong bottom six for the Leafs while Veleno comes with the faint hope of upside.</p>
<p>Philip Tomasino is a player who was perceived to have higher upside than Robertson but has done less in the NHL. He has a bit more size and is a GTA guy that often carries some weight in Toronto and could benefit from a change of scenery. Arthur Kaliyev is another player who fits the bill.</p>
<p>Robertson might also be the means to fish a decent player off a capped-out team. Not that the Leafs are in a great cap situation but using Robertson to chase players that might be out of their league on Vegas, Washington, Edmonton, etc. I&#8217;m not saying it&#8217;s time to dream of getting William Karlsson below value, but stranger things have happened in this league.</p>
<p>If trading Robertson is in their best interest, the Leafs will do so but at the same time I&#8217;d imagine Brad Treliving and Craig Berube have reminded Nick that Sheldon Keefe is gone and he has a fresh start and the team is looking for offence with Bertuzzi&#8217;s departure. I&#8217;d imagine the move from Keefe was a big part of the Leafs wanting another look at what they have with Timothy Liljegren as well.</p>
<h2>The NHL needs more offer sheets</h2>
<p>Offer sheets aren&#8217;t often practical but they are entertaining. As bad as the Jesper Kotkaniemi deal has worked out for the Hurricanes, it was unquestionably hilarious at the time. And really that&#8217;s all I want out of offer sheets are the entertainment value.</p>
<p>The Hjalmarsson offer sheet in 2010 pushed the Blackhawks cap situation into a bad spot and forced the dismantling of their Cup winning roster and that&#8217;s exactly what teams should be looking to do now, especially those in the Pacific Division with cap space and draft capital.</p>
<p>The Oilers already sit $2.4M over the salary cap with two key restricted free agents left to be signed. Neither Philip Broberg nor Dylan Holloway are arbitration eligible and are ripe for offer sheets. With offer sheets only requiring a 2nd round pick as compensation up to $4.58M it would be difficult to either steal the Oilers young talent or force the Oilers to make more moves than they already require to become cap compliant. If teams go with two or three year offer sheets they also have the potential to make the re-signing of Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Connor McDavid slightly more challenging.</p>
<p>None of this really affects the Leafs and like I mentioned in the section above, a Nick Robertson offer sheet might be an easy solution although not necessarily the most desirable one. The Leafs also have no means to offer sheet anyone as they do not have any of their own picks in the first three rounds of the next draft.</p>
<p>This is just about hockey being entertaining when there isn&#8217;t hockey to watch.</p>


July 4th felt like the official dog days of summer point of the NHL offseason. Capfriendly only recorded 4 new contracts, 2 of which were re-signings and 1 was a deal announced the day before. The free agency market consists of Oliver Kylington, Alex Nylander, and players who likely now have their agents cold calling European teams. The good news is there will now be sporadic trades. The bad news is that things actually happening has dropped down to one or two pieces of news across the entire league per day. We can now officially go outside (after getting caught up on The Leafs Nation content, of course.)

Here are a few of my stray thoughts before I enter the land of hammocks and campfires.
<h2>Not moving forward</h2>
The signing of Chris Tanev was a good move. After the fall off in play from TJ Brodie last season and even more so since the injury to Jake Muzzin, the Leafs have needed a top pairing calibre defenceman. Tanev represents the Leafs upgrading from last season but in this was a move to get them back to where they were before. This doesn't feel like the Leafs improving, this seems like an attempt to stop the bleeding.

Anthony Stolarz is a great gamble in net. He's had a couple of seasons with a not so good one sandwiched in between that offer a lot of hope regarding taking on a bigger role. A goaltending change can always be the missing piece or fall completely flat. It is no different than the gambles taken on Jack Campbell and Ilya Samsonov before him, but the excitement is still there. It still feels more like a status quo move than the Leafs beefing up their team.

Throw into the mix that the Leafs are also down Tyler Bertuzzi and don't appear to have the cap room to replace him. Brad Treliving has had a better summer than in 2023 but a big move that signals the Leafs are going for it is still lacking.

Maybe that was Berube. While I like Berube and I'm glad to see the Maple Leafs move on from Sheldon Keefe, I'm not sure this constitutes a big splash either.

I'd argue the Leafs prematurely committing to Max Domi and Timothy Liljegren prevented the opportunity to go big. Both are good players and players I won't complain about the Leafs bringing back, but $6.75M in cap space certainly would have aided the Leafs in swinging for the fences. Now the Leafs are in a position where they can certainly use the $2M they have in cap space ($1M if you assume the re-signing of Connor Dewar at a reasonable price) to their advantage along with opportunities to send salary out. There is also the $8.8M in summer cap overage allowance that can help, but also complicate things further.

The Maple Leafs also have limited resources. I wouldn't doubt that, despite his contract, Timothy Liljegren's future with the Maple Leafs is still in question and there should be some interest in him. The Leafs have Nick Robertson who actively wants to move on and could have some value. The Leafs also own a 2026 1st round pick, and the Panthers' 2025 2nd round pick, and while these might not be highly sought after trade chips, the Leafs could still be doing some shopping in the trade market in hopes of a significant improvement.

There is also the possibility that the Leafs do move on from Marner although that is less a solution and more a fresh can of worms. It's difficult to see the Leafs making a big splash or heading in a new direction without moving part of their core four forwards, but much like the Leafs summer to date it could just be moving pieces around than taking a step forward.

For a GM who prides himself on building teams in the offseason and limiting the in-season tinkering, you'd have to imagine there is still more to come from the Leafs. If that's it for the Leafs aside from the pending Dewar and Robertson signings, the Leafs are in a position where they can try their luck at trade deadline upgrades.
<h2>What is the value of Nick Robertson?</h2>
The Maple Leafs took a pretty aggressive stance against the idea of trading Nick Robertson. I'm not sure how much I believe they are genuine in their interest to keep him and instead think this was a subtle nod to the rest of the league that Nick Robertson won't be traded away for nothing.

Assuming that someone was to offer sheet Nick Robertson, it would likely come at the $1.51M-$2.29M range which requires a 3rd round pick as compensation. This would presumably be the bare minimum of what the Maple Leafs would take back as return for Robertson. Given that Robertson is a 22-year-old that scored at a 20-goal pace last season, I don't think it's crazy to suggest that value especially when he wasn't getting much in the way of ice time.

Draft picks are nice, but the Maple Leafs could use a cheap 20 goal scorer and if it is not going to be Robertson, they probably want to find another alternative. Maybe the solution is to look for other teams with unsigned RFAs that could make sense for the Maple Leafs. If they can't get a 15-20 goal guy, maybe they can address their need for centre depth instead.

Players like Barrett Hayton and Joseph Veleno represent centre options that could be of interest to the Maple Leafs. Hayton especially seems like a strong bottom six for the Leafs while Veleno comes with the faint hope of upside.

Philip Tomasino is a player who was perceived to have higher upside than Robertson but has done less in the NHL. He has a bit more size and is a GTA guy that often carries some weight in Toronto and could benefit from a change of scenery. Arthur Kaliyev is another player who fits the bill.

Robertson might also be the means to fish a decent player off a capped-out team. Not that the Leafs are in a great cap situation but using Robertson to chase players that might be out of their league on Vegas, Washington, Edmonton, etc. I'm not saying it's time to dream of getting William Karlsson below value, but stranger things have happened in this league.

If trading Robertson is in their best interest, the Leafs will do so but at the same time I'd imagine Brad Treliving and Craig Berube have reminded Nick that Sheldon Keefe is gone and he has a fresh start and the team is looking for offence with Bertuzzi's departure. I'd imagine the move from Keefe was a big part of the Leafs wanting another look at what they have with Timothy Liljegren as well.
<h2>The NHL needs more offer sheets</h2>
Offer sheets aren't often practical but they are entertaining. As bad as the Jesper Kotkaniemi deal has worked out for the Hurricanes, it was unquestionably hilarious at the time. And really that's all I want out of offer sheets are the entertainment value.

The Hjalmarsson offer sheet in 2010 pushed the Blackhawks cap situation into a bad spot and forced the dismantling of their Cup winning roster and that's exactly what teams should be looking to do now, especially those in the Pacific Division with cap space and draft capital.

The Oilers already sit $2.4M over the salary cap with two key restricted free agents left to be signed. Neither Philip Broberg nor Dylan Holloway are arbitration eligible and are ripe for offer sheets. With offer sheets only requiring a 2nd round pick as compensation up to $4.58M it would be difficult to either steal the Oilers young talent or force the Oilers to make more moves than they already require to become cap compliant. If teams go with two or three year offer sheets they also have the potential to make the re-signing of Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, and Connor McDavid slightly more challenging.

None of this really affects the Leafs and like I mentioned in the section above, a Nick Robertson offer sheet might be an easy solution although not necessarily the most desirable one. The Leafs also have no means to offer sheet anyone as they do not have any of their own picks in the first three rounds of the next draft.

This is just about hockey being entertaining when there isn't hockey to watch.

Lack of a Maple Leafs big splash, Robertson trade value, and a plea for offer sheets: Leaflets

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