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Ron Wilson’s effect on goalies
alt
Cam Charron
Jan 16, 2013, 15:30 ESTUpdated: Jan 16, 2013, 15:27 EST
Even though Ron Wilson has been fired, it’s still interesting to look back on his career and what he did with his goaltenders. Like I mentioned earlier, Dave Tippett and Ken Hitchcock’s goalies can expect higher save percentages in those systems.
Wilson, however, well, let’s just say the goaltending record in his time as coach was awful. The Leafs have bounced from below-average starter to below-average starter. The Leafs haven’t had a goaltender play 50 games in a season since Vesa Toskala in 2008-2009, and they haven’t had a goalie play 50 games in three consecutive seasons since Curtis Joseph between 1999-2002.
So, what to make of Wilson’s record? As you’ll see after the jump, the first thing is that Wilson has coached a lot of respectfully mediocre goaltenders in his career:


Goalie
Faced
Saves
EV SV%
NHL EVSV%
EVSV%+
Exp SV
Andrew Raycroft
358
316
0.883
0.920
0.860
329.2
Bill Ranford
425
384
0.904
0.915
0.888
388.7
Brian Boucher
81
75
0.926
0.920
0.907
74.5
Corey Hirsch
8
8
1.000
0.914
0.995
7.3
Craig Billington
662
602
0.909
0.914
0.895
605.1
Evgeni Nabokov
4402
4053
0.921
0.919
0.902
4044.0
Jean-Sebastien Giguere
994
909
0.914
0.920
0.894
914.7
Joey MacDonald
119
110
0.924
0.919
0.906
109.4
Martin Brochu
45
42
0.933
0.916
0.919
41.2
Olie Kolzig
6959
6357
0.913
0.914
0.899
6363.2
Richard Tabaracci
384
352
0.917
0.916
0.901
351.7
Scott Glemmensen
52
44
0.846
0.920
0.820
47.8
Sebastien Charpentier
68
63
0.926
0.916
0.912
62.3
Thomas Greiss
33
26
0.788
0.920
0.757
30.3
Vesa Toskala
5062
4628
0.914
0.919
0.895
4650.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
TOTAL
19652
17969
0.914
0.917
0.897
18019.7
This is only since 1998 so it doesn’t include his tenure with the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim which ended in the 1996-1997 season. This season could be the first since the Disney Expansion where Wilson won’t be a coach for at least part of it, but given the short season, there may not be much of a chance for teams to hire and fire coaches without resorting to an assistant as an interim. Anything could happen though.
Another fun fact here is that Wilson actually coached Vesa Toskala twice, both in San Jose and in Toronto. Here is the same list of goalies without Wilson behind the bench:


Goalie
Faced
Saves
EV SV%
NHL EVSV%
EVSV%+
Exp SV
Andrew Raycroft
5268
4822
0.915
0.919
0.896
4838.9
Bill Ranford
1027
916
0.892
0.915
0.875
939.5
Brian Boucher
6223
5670
0.911
0.918
0.893
5711.9
Corey Hirsch
347
306
0.882
0.916
0.863
317.8
Craig Billington
1044
958
0.918
0.915
0.903
954.8
Evgeni Nabokov
7842
7251
0.925
0.918
0.907
7197.1
Jean-Sebastien Giguere
11167
10325
0.925
0.918
0.907
10251.5
Joey MacDonald
2162
1975
0.914
0.919
0.894
1987.2
Martin Brochu
88
78
0.886
0.917
0.866
80.7
Olie Kolzig
6656
6103
0.917
0.918
0.898
6112.4
Richard Tabaracci
841
761
0.905
0.914
0.889
769.1
Scott Glemmensen
3243
2980
0.919
0.919
0.899
2981.6
Sebastien Charpentier
421
384
0.912
0.919
0.892
387.1
Thomas Greiss
702
651
0.927
0.920
0.908
645.9
Vesa Toskala
286
268
0.937
0.919
0.920
262.7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
TOTAL
47317
43448
0.918
0.918
0.900
43438.3
We have almost double the amount of shots from Carlyle’s sample. EV SV%+ is an adjusted metric, where .900 is essentially what a league average goalie would put up. That’s calculated using the Exp SV stat I have, which is “expected saves” based on the number of saves a league-average goalie would have made in the same time-span.
Wilson’s goalies are slightly worse off with him than without, but that could be random sample. Look at Jean-Sebastien Giguere, who had a terrific hockey career if not for one-and-a-half terribles seasons in Toronto.
Maybe I’d chalk it up to age, but Giguere had a .924 EV SV% last season with Colorado, so there’s still some ability left in him. Indubitably, Wilson had no idea what to do with the defence and goaltenders he was handed. Predictably, everything collapsed.
So this next chart here is going to show those combined goalies with and without Ron Wilson, and the bottom two lines is going to exclude anything accrued during Wilson’s time with the Toronto Maple Leafs. That strikes Raycroft and Giguere and some of Toskala:


 
Faced
Saves
EV SV%
NHL EVSV%
EVSV%+
Exp SV
With Wilson
19652
17969
0.914
0.917
0.897
18019.7
Without Wilson
47317
43448
0.918
0.918
0.900
43438.3
With Wilson less Leafs
17195
15750
0.916
0.917
0.899
15761.8
Without Wilson less Leafs
30882
28301
0.916
0.918
0.898
28347.8
The goalies Wilson had were not impressive. If you eliminate his time in Toronto, Wilson had no effect on his goaltenders. If you include his time with the Leafs, “no effect” becomes “close to negligible effect” if you can get over the idea that JS Giguere had one-and-a-half miserable years.
What did we learn here? Well, other than Olaf Kolzig is pretty average, it appears goaltenders playing under Ron Wilson’s system don’t see their statlines affected.

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