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Tale of the tape: How the Panthers and Leafs match up on paper

Photo credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
May 5, 2025, 09:00 EDTUpdated: May 5, 2025, 19:53 EDT
After a brief hiatus, the second round finally gets underway as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Florida Panthers for Game 1. Florida is looking to oust Toronto in its bid to repeat as Stanley Cup champions, while Toronto is attempting to advance to the conference finals for the first time since 2002.
We’ve gone through our staff predictions, highlighted some x-factors and will have news and analysis throughout the series. Here’s how the Panthers and Maple Leafs stack up on a position-by-position basis.
Forwards: This may be closer than many realize. Florida boasts six 20-goal scorers, along with the emerging Anton Lundell who is growing into a two-way menace. It can sprinkle secondary scoring throughout the lineup, while Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov and a now-healthy Matthew Tkachuk drive the offense. Ultimately, Toronto wins this matchup by the slightest of edges. Mitch Marner is coming off the first 102-point campaign of his career, William Nylander scored 45 goals and while it was a down year for his superior standards, Auston Matthews is still an elite goal-scoring threat. Toronto isn’t nearly as balanced as its opponent, but it gets the slightest of edges due to its superior offensive talent, along with a five-man forward power play unit that is clicking at a 35 percent rate through the playoffs. Advantage: Leafs
Defence: Toronto allowed 136 goals at 5-on-5, the third-best total in the NHL, while Florida ranked fourth, surrendering 139 goals at 5-on-5. It is a testament to Craig Berube’s defensive system, along with Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo and Oliver Ekman-Larsson revamping the Maple Leafs’ blue line, that it could even be a conversation when matched up against the Panthers’ elite defensive system. Tanev forms a legitimate shutdown pairing with Jake McCabe, which has allowed Morgan Rielly to settle into a true No. 4 role. Seth Jones was acquired by the Panthers at the deadline and is working well in a No. 4 role as well, while Gustav Forsling will have to navigate Game 1 without Aaron Ekblad, who is suspended. There are true advantages to continuity, and when Ekblad returns, the Panthers will have the slightest of advantages. Advantage: Tied
Goaltending: Anthony Stolarz is the best Maple Leafs’ goalie of the Matthews-Marner era and he’s provided his team with genuine confidence every time he takes the ice. Stolarz is expected to start every game until proven otherwise for the Leafs, and he excelled in the first round, particularly through the first four games. It’s unfortunate that he’s going against his former teammate and one of the most decorated goalies of his generation in Sergei Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky has been stellar for the Panthers, but he isn’t in the unbeatable form that he was in two years ago, when the Panthers stunned the Leafs in five games. This matchup very well could dictate the series. Advantage: Panthers
Coaching: Craig Berube and Paul Maurice have both won Stanley Cups, and enter the series with defined principles that have shaped their teams. Berube and Maurice are both transparent about how they want the game to be played, with an emphasis on risk aversion and punishing teams for their mistakes. We’ll have to see who will win the game within the game, and Berube will get first change during the opening two games of the series. Until the champions are unseated, this one goes to Maurice. Advantage: Slight edge, Panthers
Intangibles: This category clearly swings in the Panthers’ favour. Marner and the Maple Leafs’ core are firmly in their win-now window, but have yet to advance past the second round, and the pressure is mounting. Florida has established itself as the class of the Eastern Conference, looking for a third consecutive trip to the Final this summer. As the saying goes, to be the best, you have to beat the best, and this is the challenge presented for the Maple Leafs, which will shape how this era may be remembered overall.
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