The LeafsNation has no direct affiliation to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment, NHL, or NHLPA
The Maple Leafs need to find a way to keep Fraser Minten in the lineup
alt
Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Arun Srinivasan
Dec 17, 2024, 11:00 ESTUpdated: Dec 17, 2024, 11:01 EST
Working around the rigid permutations of the salary cap is a necessary component of life in the NHL, but it often forces teams to be deferent to the salary limits, rather than running an optimal lineup. Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving has worked tirelessly to create some flexibility since inheriting a messy cap sheet from his predecessor, and while the team has deftly navigated several injuries throughout the season, returning 20-year-old Fraser Minten to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies is a clear misstep.
The onus is on the Maple Leafs to find a way to keep Minten in the lineup. Minten missed the start of training camp due to a high-ankle sprain suffered in September during the rookie tournament in a game against the Montreal Canadiens. Upon recovering from injury, Minten recording two goals and four points in five games with the Marlies. Toronto’s emerging prospect also recorded two goals and four points in 11 games during his stint with the Maple Leafs, he’s clearly ready for the NHL, with his hockey intelligence and defensive responsibility readily apparent.
Minten was called up on November 19 and made his season debut the following day against the Vegas Golden Knights, where he recorded his first NHL goal. He wasn’t projected to be an explosive offensive talent, with his cerebral qualities and defensive excellence propelling him through the Maple Leafs’ ranks as a second-round pick from the 2022 NHL Draft. He played in four games with the Maple Leafs last year after an outstanding training camp, but didn’t appear comfortable at the NHL level just yet. This time around, it was a different story and Minten ought to have earned a permanent spot in Craig Berube’s lineup, even as the Maple Leafs boast a surplus of NHL-ready forwards.
Berube previously made the argument that if Minten is one of Toronto’s 12 best forwards, he should remain with the team — this should be obvious, but salary cap considerations, along with returning veterans who expect playing time, makes this task considerably more difficult.
“He’s excellent. He talks, really, like a vet on the bench,” Berube said of Minten on December 5. “He’s already got that mindset and knows the game extremely well. He’s not a guy you gotta really teach a whole lot to. It’s just, he needs reps. Because he understands the game. He understands the systems very well.”
Minten is useful in many scenarios for the Maple Leafs and earned some time on the power play and penalty kill during his 11-game stint. We don’t want to denigrate other players, but he’s already more valuable than David Kampf, whose imminent return is the main reason why Minten is being sent down to the Marlies, along with the fact that he doesn’t require waivers. Minten has more value than Ryan Reaves and more offensive upside than Connor Dewar, who is helping the Maple Leafs tread water in low-event hockey on the fourth line. Prospect analysts have often stated that Minten, even when he arrives in his prime, won’t project to be a top scorer but he’s provided decent secondary offence for a Maple Leafs team that is starved for 5-on-5 offence, where the bottom-six has contributed next to nothing.
You can use analytics to make a case that Minten should be sent down to the Marlies: some would argue that it’s not worth making the argument for Minten, when the Maple Leafs control only 40 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 when he’s on the ice (via Natural Stat Trick) although the team does sport a plus-1 goal differential. It’s also worth noting that Toronto had a superior shot differential when Minten was on the ice in five of his 11 games.
Toronto controls 44 percent of the expected goals when Kampf is on the ice and the team has never been controlled greater than 50 percent during his three seasons with the team — and in plain language, Minten already has superior offensive upside, with physicality and the ability to play on the wing as well. He earned in-game promotions to a line with John Tavares and William Nylander, he’s well-liked and comfortable in the room and looked the part of an NHL regular.
The prevailing and majority logic dictates that Minten would be better suited to playing 18-20 minutes per game in the AHL, as opposed to fighting for limited minutes in a bottom-six role — with the potential to be moved up the lineup as Berube sees fit, as he often rewards players for stellar in-game contributions. I’m not buying that premise.
Minten benefits from being in a room with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander as willing mentors, he soaks up advice and is very coachable, he’s exceptionally intelligent, he doesn’t seem like he would be rattled if his offence dries up as he can impact the game in several ways and there are obvious benefits from staying up with a team that currently sits atop the hotly contested Atlantic Division. It’s better for Minten to get into games and being rendered a healthy scratch certainly doesn’t help, but the onus is on the Maple Leafs to find a place for him in the lineup, when he’s already a superior option to two roster regulars. And perhaps this is short-sighted logic, but development isn’t a key priority for a team that needs to win now.
There’s always the chance Minten would get phased out of the lineup when Calle Jarnkrok returns but based on the eye test, along with the team’s positional needs, it’s clear Minten is already one of Toronto’s 12 best forwards. Minten will be a staple on the team as early as next season, in part due to the rigidity of the salary cap, and it’s the first misstep Treliving and company have made during an injury-ridden campaign.