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Too green vs. too rusty: Why the youth movement makes more sense than veteran wingers

Photo credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
By Jon Steitzer
Aug 31, 2024, 12:00 EDTUpdated: Aug 31, 2024, 09:48 EDT
A not so wise man once said, “f— them kids.” For the cap-strapped Toronto Maple Leafs, less true words have ever been spoken but once again Toronto finds itself at the familiar crossroads of how to fill out a roster.
According to TLN’s Nick Alberga, the Leafs are one of the teams in contention for Max Pacioretty. This decision fits the Marleau, Thornton, and Spezza approach of filling out the lineup with declining veterans who might have some David Justice in Moneyball little nuggets of leadership to drop around the locker room. To date, this approach hasn’t done much for the Leafs. As some extra gas on the fire, TSN added James van Riemsdyk’s name to the mix, which is certainly hammering home that Brad Treliving wants another veteran in the lineup. Treliving tended to block younger players from the roster in Calgary as well, but that was equal parts Darryl Sutter.
The appeal of the veteran option is you know exactly what you are getting. On the surface, both JVR and Pacioretty look like 12-minute-a-night secondary scorers who can contribute to a second powerplay unit. Neither player might be capable defensively, but both have enough sense to get off the ice when the puck is heading towards the Leafs zone. On game one of the season, you can make the case that they would be the best option for the Leafs. The rub is that game one doesn’t matter much. Most bottom six forwards are going to heavily impact where a team is in the standings throughout the regular season, and that’s where the case should be made to give the opportunities to the youngsters.
Game One Easton Cowan is going to be a lot more overwhelmed than Game One Max Pacioretty, that should go without saying when one hasn’t played a professional game and the other has a combined 980 regular and postseason games. Cowan is going to be learning. He’s going to be getting better, and one would hope that by game 82 of the regular season, he is a lot closer to an experienced NHL player than a novice one who can now read plays and make the right decisions quickly. That 82 games over Max Pacioretty or JVR also eliminates the need for a learning curve in the following season. If things are close, it seems that NHL coaches regularly make the wrong decision and the tie should go to the rookie rather than the tie going to the veteran. There is an upside to development and building experience.
The flip side of going with veterans, and I don’t think I’m saying anything groundbreaking here is that old people get tired quicker as a season of physical hockey takes a toll on them. JVR had 32 points in his first 45 games last season, but he had six in his remaining 26 regular season games. He was held pointless in his final 13 games of the season and went goalless in his final 20 games.
Pacioretty’s late season decline was just as pronounced. Pacioretty had just one goal in his final 24 regular season games and went goalless in his 4 postseason games. Pacioretty had an 18-game goalless streak leading into that final goal. These are secondary scorer numbers, this is Ryan Reaves without the hitting or fighting.
Fully recognizing that Nick Robertson might not be part of the mix, the Leafs have options to explore that seem capable of producing the 11 goals that van Riemsdyk had for the Bruins last season. Easton Cowan, Fraser Minten, and Alex Steeves all could make a case for secondary scoring and are more likely to find their groove rather than wear themselves out. That’s before considering that Alex Nylander could make his case for the job as he matched JVR’s 11 goals in the NHL last season while playing in 43 fewer games.
There is a painfully clear best of both worlds situation that you could make a case for. Go with the veterans now and let the kids work their way past them on the depth chart. It’s a way of having depth and not rushing kids. Of course, the kids won’t get better at the NHL level if they aren’t playing at it, but there will be injuries and opportunities and maybe it’s a matter of trusting the rhythm of the season that the Leafs can have it both ways. It could work that way for anyone other than Cowan who needs a job in the NHL or he returns to junior. And honestly, if it looks like junior is the best option for Cowan after training camp, there’s nothing wrong with going that route and bringing in a somewhat washed veteran, assuming that the entire field of prospects/bubble players underperform.
This is no longer a team of Maple Leafs lottery picks getting their feet wet in the NHL. The Leafs roster average age is now over 28, and in addition to Captain Auston Matthews, he has veterans like Morgan Rielly, John Tavares, Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan Reaves, Calle Jarnkrok, and Jake McCabe to rely on. The team has cup winners on it, former captains, and future hall of famers, rather than throwing more egos into the room the best thing might be some eager to please prospects with untapped upside.
Data from Hockey Reference
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