Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving has a lengthy to-do list this season in Toronto, signing Matthew Knies to a long-term extension should be at the top of his list.

Knies, who turns 22 in a couple of weeks, is a pending restricted free agent, entering the final season of his entry-level contract. In his first full season with the Maple Leafs, the Phoenix native appeared in 80 games, scoring 15 goals and tallying 35 points. Under then-head coach Sheldon Keefe, Knies averaged 13:40 of ice time per game, ranking him eighth on the team among all Leafs’ forwards. With new coach Craig Berube starting Knies on the top line alongside Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner to start the new season, expect to see Knies’ usage skyrocket.

Not only is the young power forward expected to see more ice time 5-on-5, but he’s also in line to see more time on both sides of special teams. Knies is set to be the net-front presence on the second power-play unit, meanwhile should get a look as a depth penalty killer. He certainly has the skills to be very effective shorthanded and he could eventually be a staple on the top PK unit alongside Marner. Needless to say, his career-high 35 points from a season ago is likely going to be the floor moving forward.

Treliving should do his best to get ahead of this. Knies is prime for a huge season and if the Leafs general manager waits until the end of the year, the motto ‘yesterday’s price isn’t today’s price’ will certainly come into play.

Treliving waited out William Nylander on his extension and didn’t get a deal done until almost halfway through last season. Nylander started the season on a record-setting point streak, which ended up increasing his value by roughly $1- $1.5 million annually as opposed to if the extension was signed before opening night. You have to think this could be in the back of Treliving’s mind.

Knies is poised for a massive campaign. He has great chemistry with Marner and Matthews, and another year together will do wonders. The biggest factor in this all, may not be where he’s playing in the lineup, and more so who he’s playing for. Berube loves a heavy game, he wants the Leafs to outwork opponents and he wants to be tough to play against in all three zones. Knies fits the bill perfectly, coming off a season leading all Leafs’ forwards with 169 hits and improved immensely on both sides of the puck. Prepare yourselves to hear Berube praising his young power forward throughout the year, as these two are a match made in heaven.

Long-term contract extensions are all about projections. With Knies’ work ethic, his commitment to his craft, his current opportunity, along with what Berube values, Treliving should be trying to get something done sooner rather than later. Knies could be in line for the most improved player in Toronto, and that’s not a knock on how he performed last season. It’s just a testament to how far he can go this year.

Knies’ agent, Matt Federico, will be tasked with trying to come to terms with Treliving. There’s been some chatter around Leafs Nation that the team loves Knies and extension talks between the two sides have already started, and rightfully so. Here are a few players, who signed within the last year, to compare:

After reviewing the extensions for Beniers, Byfield, and Zegras, Federico is going to have some options, depending on the term. If I’m the Maple Leafs, push for as long as you can and buy into some of Knies’ unrestricted free-agent seasons. If I’m the agent, I’d push for maximum AAV, even if it’s only a bridge contract with less term.

Knies’ incoming extension could slot in around the $5.5-6.5 million AAV range, as he’s coming off a 35-point season, will see a significant jump in his stats, and projects to improve immensely as he gets older. If the Leafs push for some serious term on the deal, much like the Kraken, it’s not likely to get past $6.5 million. Beniers has a 57-point season under his belt, he’s a former #1 overall pick, and his ceiling is likely perceived as much higher than the Leafs’ power forward.

At the end of the day, the salary cap is projected to climb throughout the next three years and could sniff the $100 million range. Treliving should value Knies as the leader of the Maple Leafs’ next wave of talent, and with the potential of a breakout season in ’24-25, the Maple Leafs executive should be doing whatever he can to get this extension signed before the holiday break in December.

Waiting any longer could cost the Maple Leafs a lot of money.