With a new coach, the opportunity to bring old ideas back in hopes that things can work out differently this time makes sense in most cases that is. The idea of William Nylander at centre is one of those ideas that seems like it is better off permanently mothballed.

Unfortunately, where there is smoke there is often fire. With Jonas Siegel of The Athletic writing about the possibility of William Nylander playing centre, the Leafs are likely talking about giving it another go.

The reason why players like William Nylander and Max Domi come up in the conversation for centre is pretty simple. Without them, the Leafs’ centre depth chart looks like this:

Auston Matthews
John Tavares
David Kampf
Pontus Holmberg
Fraser Minten (if you want to rush him)
Steven Lorentz (if the PTO goes well)
Jacob Quillan?

…and then various other options besides Nylander and Domi could also be in the conversation of whether or not they should be shuffled over from the wing (Calle Jarnkrok, Connor Dewar, Easton Cowan)

Metaphorically this is the Leafs’ depth chart:

So yes, having a discussion around Nylander, Domi, and if you want to get really hot takey about it, Mitch Marner is somewhat warranted.

For now, we’ll focus on Nylander and the key reasons why Nylander is viewed as the best option, and that is because no one on the Leafs carries the puck up ice as well as he does. Feel people in the league are as comfortable controlling the puck and those who are in the same class as Nylander for puck control all likely play centre.

Nylander also has the speed that you’d hope to see up the middle and in theory, would help give him an effective 200-foot game. In practice, that 200-foot game doesn’t exist and is part of the reason why Nylander isn’t a strong option for this role, as his defensive shortcomings will be a liability.

This feels like one of those times when the analytics very much align with the eye test and tell the accurate story of William Nylander. The simple reality is that William Nylander is one of the most offensively gifted players in the NHL today but at the same time, his defensive zone value is limited to being a dangerous outlet that will keep an opponent’s defenceman honest when the puck is in the Leafs’ zone. He is not going to retrieve pucks or read the opposition’s offence. And while maybe some believe that Craig Berube might be able to teach Nylander to do this, it’s probably not worth the potential trade-off of the impact on Nylander’s offensive abilities to do this.

Last season at 5v5, William Nylander played 151 minutes without Auston Matthews, John Tavares, David Kampf, or Pontus Holmberg on the ice. That does still include time spent with Max Domi. In those 151 minutes, William Nylander had a 33.52 expected goals-for percentage and a 40.13 Corsi-for percentage. Both of these numbers show a tilt toward the puck being in the Leafs’ end the majority of the time. The trade-off is that his goals-for percentage was 56.25% and while those results are nice, the evidence supports that over a longer run than 150 minutes things would turn worse.

If the Leafs do explore the idea of Nylander at centre one of the best ways of making it work will be through quality of linemates. It seems like Mitch Marner would have to be a given for playing with Nylander as he brings some additional defensive responsibility as well as gives Nylander an offensive partner that won’t result in the most important part of William’s game drying up. The issue there is that if Marner is propping up Nylander then that is potentially asking Tavares to drive his own line with limited support and that too may have less-than-ideal results.

What seems to make the most sense is that William Nylander plays the role of support to one of the Leafs’ developing centres, either Pontus Holmberg or Fraser Minten (in a perfect world where he’s ready for prime time.) The Maple Leafs playing as a three-line team with Matthews, Marner, and Nylander all on their own lines gives Toronto a new approach or at least an approach that has only seen limited usage over the Sheldon Keefe run.

The elevation of a natural centre further down the depth chart rather than creating new barriers for success for a core player seems like a no-brainer, but that being said, giving Nylander, as well as others like Domi, Dewar, and Jarnkrok preseason games at centre will be beneficial. Injuries will happen, benches will be shortened, and there will be moments when additional centre options are needed throughout the year.