The Toronto Maple Leafs haven’t given their fans much to root for in the month of October. And you would think that, by now, most people are used to it. It certainly could have been worse than a record of 5-5-1 to start the season, but when you consider how much both the defensive corps and the goaltenders have struggled, and pair it with some less-than-inspiring production from the team’s newfound depth, it’s understandable that a solid 90 per cent of the fan base (OK, I may have made that number up) are dialed into the Toronto Blue Jays until further notice.

Thankfully, history shows that the Leafs love to start the season with their skates in the mud before finding their groove in November and reaffirming their status as one of the top teams in the Atlantic Division. That doesn’t excuse the way they’ve played so far, and I’m sure they would have preferred to bank a bunch of points in what was a very home-heavy schedule in October, but if anything it should provide some reassurance that, no, the Leafs aren’t about to fall off. At least not yet. If you don’t care about any of this and your personal margin for error is zero due to the amount of time this team has had to make a significant playoff run and the amount of subsequent failures, that’s fair too! I’m not here to judge you for your emotions.

That being said, it’s worth acknowledging that as uninspiring as they’ve played so far, the rest of the Atlantic Division with the exception of the Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings have played the same.

After looking at the way the Atlantic Division is laid out, it’s much easier to contextualize how early in the season it is. Defending their play while they sit at the bottom of the Atlantic Division is the equivalent of applying clown makeup while I write this, but it’s not so much a defence as it is a reminder of how the season typically unfolds.

The Red Wings and Canadiens are two teams who have been chomping at the bit to end their rebuild and work their way back into playoff contention on a regular basis, and so far, they’ve demonstrated that they have made some strides. But, to expect both of these teams to outclass the Leafs, Lightning, and Panthers for the duration of a whole season isn’t realistic. They will hit their slumps and experience the peaks and valleys of an 82-game NHL season just like everybody else does, although if anything, their hot start has indicated that teams will have to keep tabs on them.

For all the talk about Auston Matthews and his ‘slow’ start to the season with five goals and eight points in 11 games, let’s have a look at the Panthers’ stars, in comparison. Sam Reinhart has five goals and six points in 11 games. Carter Verhaeghe has two goals and five points in 11 games. And Sam Bennett? Remember, the guy who was supposed to be one of the most coveted free agent forwards this past summer? He has one goal and two points in 11 games.

The Lightning, on the other hand, haven’t struggled as much offensively as the Panthers, but you can imagine that they’re also wanting more production out of their star players. Nikita Kucherov has ten points in nine games, Brayden Point has eight points in 11 games, and like Anthony Stolarz, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has sputtered out of the gates. His .899 save percentage (SV%) is well below what’s expected of him on a regular basis, but ask yourself this. Do you think Vasilevskiy is going to struggle like this all year long? Probably not, right?

Then you look at the Bruins, who have gotten lots of production from their star players even in the absence of Brad Marchand, but their goaltenders are going through it. Jeremy Swayman has a SV% of .886 and a goals-against average (GAA) of 3.45, while Joonas Korpisalo has a SV% of .882 and a GAA of 3.49. Their goaltender situation has essentially guaranteed a minimum 3-goal against performance every time they take the ice. Do you expect that to continue, too?

That leaves us with the Senators, who you can’t really call a third-place team when they’re only two points out of last, and the Sabres, who don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt until they show everybody they’re serious. It sounds harsh, but the Sabres’ biggest offseason acquisition was Sam Lafferty, which doesn’t entirely inspire confidence that this is going to be the year they take a step forward and compete for the playoffs.

If you read this piece from the angle of “okay, so this guy is basically saying the Leafs are going to experience positive regression and everybody else is going in the opposite direction”, you’ve missed the point. The point is that you can’t draw any conclusions after the first month of the season. I don’t believe the Leafs, Panthers, and Lightning will be bad all season, and I don’t believe the Canadiens and Red Wings will be good all season. Things will even out, and if the Leafs are still stumbling by the time December rolls around, it might be time for a serious conversation about the direction of this team. But as of now, history shows that their tendency to mail it in during October will be followed by their tendency to turn it on in November. It’s just the way it is.

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