The Toronto Maple Leafs have been playing what I like to refer to as ‘refund-level’ hockey lately. Meaning, their recent stretch of play has been terrible on a number of fronts and something leaving fans wondering what they just spent their hard-earned money on. They haven’t won in regulation in seven games, they’ve won one of their past six games, and two of their strengths in maintaining leads and strong goaltending have seemingly come plummeting back to earth.

What amplifies this poor play is the fact that it comes just over a week after the NHL Trade Deadline, one where general manager Brad Treliving seemed to step outside his comfort zone to give his team an extra vote of confidence. Despite never being known for making big trades at the deadline, he shipped out multiple first-round picks and prospects to acquire forward Scott Laughton from the Philadelphia Flyers and defenceman Brandon Carlo from the Boston Bruins. While Carlo has adjusted well to the trade, tallying a single assist in four games and providing Morgan Rielly a stable partner, Laughton has gone pointless in his first four games and although looking more comfortable every night, hasn’t gotten the Leaf monkey off of his back.

The deadline is far down the list of issues hampering the Leafs right now. Auston Matthews is a shell of himself compared to 2023-24, on pace for nearly 40 fewer goals than last season, their goaltending has come down to earth after a stunning start to the season, and their penalty kill is near the bottom of the league since the calendar flipped to 2025. It’s not uncommon for teams to go through stretches like this, after all, it’s a long regular season. But to have the issues come to light right after the trade deadline, right after your general manager parted with some of your best assets, doesn’t help the case whatsoever. Pair that with the fact that the Leafs have blown leads in three of their past six games after heading into this stretch with a perfect record of 27-0 when leading after two periods, and there’s not a lot of inspiring hockey being played in Toronto right now.

All this being said, how much does it really matter?

First and foremost, I want to clarify that I’m not excusing their bad play. I’m not saying they shouldn’t care about anything besides making the playoffs, and I’m certainly not saying that going into the playoffs on a hot streak rather than sputtering out the way they have been wouldn’t help them at all. But here’s the reality of the situation – no matter how good the Leafs have played in the regular season in past seasons, their issues come playoff time have always been the same. Their offence dries up, they lose the special teams battle, and they allow timely, costly goals even if they get stable team defence and goaltending for the majority of the time.

Let’s take things back to the 2022-23 season, which was the last time the Leafs balled out at the deadline with the acquisitions of Ryan O’Reilly and Jake McCabe. Once the March 3 deadline of that season passed, the Leafs finished the season with a record of 12-5-3, rounding out to 12 wins and eight losses to end the year. There weren’t any major slides over this stretch, but until a four-game win streak to close out the season, the team was very much operating on a win-loss-win-loss pattern. Of course, this was the season where the Leafs actually managed to win one (1) playoff round before getting wiped by the Florida Panthers in five games. One round win surely wasn’t enough to satisfy the fanbase once the reality of the second-round loss came into play, but it also seems to be where the bar is considering each of the other playoff runs during the Matthews era has resulted in first-round exits.

If you look at the year before, the Leafs were playing excellent hockey to end the 2021-22 season. Following the trade deadline that saw them walk out with veteran Mark Giordano and forward Colin Blackwell as their two main additions, they finished the year 15-3-2. What happened in the playoffs? They went up 3-2 in the series before losing Game 6 and 7 to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Pardon me if I sound apathetic to the situation, or if even after all of these clarifications, I still sound like I’m cutting them a break for playing so badly lately. But it’s time for a reality check. We’re in year 9 of the Matthews/Marner/Nylander era with expiring contracts for Marner and John Tavares coming up this summer. Nylander is 28 while Matthews and Marner are both 27. If we were at a point where winning one playoff round was considered a victory, then sure, strong regular play to ensure optimal seeding would be a priority. But ask yourself, are you satisfied with one series win for the Leafs this season? If not, then you understand that a trip to the Stanley Cup final likely means they have to go through the Florida Panthers at some point, whether that’s in round 1 or round 3. The same goes for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Even if it wasn’t just about dodging the best teams, have the Leafs shown in the past that they can handily beat teams weaker than them? No, they haven’t. They lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2019-20 play-in round when the NHL held their playoffs in the bubble, and despite winning the North Division in 2020-21 and getting a first-round matchup with the Montreal Canadiens, who finished the season under .500, they choked away a 3-1 series lead and went out early just like every other time. Do you feel any more inspired getting to watch them face the Blue Jackets, who are more motivated than ever, or the Ottawa Senators, who have long had their number in the regular season and just completed a regular season sweep of the Leafs? The same Senators who have been spinning their tires hoping for a playoff appearance for the first time since 2016-17? If you do, I’ve got a lakefront property in Saskatchewan to sell you.

It’s no secret that the Leafs are not doing themselves any favours by tapping into their bad habits right in the home stretch of the regular season. The goaltending slowing down is a worrying sign considering neither Anthony Stolarz nor Joseph Woll have played more than 27 games in a single season before this season, and if you’re a team as top-heavy as the Leafs, you simply can’t afford to have your stars fizzle out when the team needs them the most, no matter how improved your defensive corps is. But, for the “do it in the playoffs” crowd, this is for you. Keep that same energy. Strong regular season play has not translated to playoff success in the past, so why would that be any different this season?

The Leafs are now tied for second in the Atlantic Division with Tampa Bay and four points behind the Panthers with two games in hand. The Senators are only four points back of the Leafs in the first wildcard spot, but they’re still ten points up on the second wildcard spot, and at this point, they would have to have a generational 18-wheeler-style slide to miss the playoffs, which would be the only true doomsday scenario for them. They’re too talented at each position to do this (ideally they don’t prove me wrong on that), and whether or not they’re doing things right at the moment doesn’t mean they’re going to keep doing those things right once the stakes are higher.

There are 16 games remaining, starting with a home tilt against the Calgary Flames on Monday. 16 games to get the train back on the tracks, and 16 games to figure out how to do the right things when it matters.