I’m going to start off with what seems like a revelation, at least in my mind. The Toronto Maple Leafs have talented players, but they don’t have great players. Or at least they aren’t great yet.

As we sit here watching the Leafs fail to close out the Senators for the second game in a row, there is a crushing realization that we’ve all seen this movie before. The fact that the Maple Leafs have gone 1-13 since 2018 in series-clinching games speaks to this core being terminally reluctant to step into greatness, and therein lies the problem.

You can argue that progress has been made in the supporting cast for the Leafs. Anthony Stolarz might need a night off, but he has been the closest thing to stable playoff goaltending (save for possibly his tandem partner), the defence has at least returned to the prime years of Muzzin level with the addition of Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe, and Matthew Knies is the answer to a lot of Leafs prayers about net presence. There have been some strong improvements, but it just doesn’t translate when the top lines look flat and the salary cap is invested in those units being unstoppable.

Does the blame lie solely on the Leafs’ core? It can’t, but they do set the direction for which the club goes, and after a decisive win in Game 1, there has been a steady decline from the aggressive battle for important areas of the ice. It continued in Game 5 with the trend of living on the perimeter and only taking shots from the suburbs approach, which looked nice when glancing at shot differentials but ignores the reality that Linus Ullmark was getting a clear look at shots that weren’t heavily telegraphed and lacked any attempt to sustain pressure on the play.

Game 1 featured some gutsy plays from Mitch Marner and John Tavares, Auston Matthews was amongst the hit leaders for the Leafs, and Nylander was constantly creating plays out of nothing. Everyone was on the score sheet, and things looked great. Now, five games in and the single goal output from Marner, Matthews, and Nylander is a lot more underwhelming, and only Tavares’ three goals don’t raise red flags out of the core. All of this looks and feels very familiar.

A big part of the issue is that, since Game 2, getting all four of the Leafs’ core forwards showing up in the same game hasn’t happened. Matthews and Nylander each had a game where they stood out, and Tavares has been consistent but not outstanding, but since his initial strong showing, Marner has faded to the background, and whether Matthews has been dealing with an injury or not, he has not been a presence. This is the top-paid player in the league this season, and a player who wants to make more than that top-paid player, and both are being subdued quite easily by a Wild Card team.

In an attempt to find the rational way of looking at things, the morning after a disappointing loss is met with the reality that losing two games in a row is something that happens. There’s also the fact that the Senators swept the regular season series, so they never should have been treated as an easy out. It also seems quite clear that Matthews’ injury has taken a toll on him this season. You can also look at it from the rational perspective that the Leafs get two more tries at knocking out the Senators, and in reality, that is still the most likely outcome, so don’t make alternative plans for the second round just yet.

All of that said, this has happened before, and we don’t like this movie. Even if the Leafs limp into the second round, there isn’t some mythical easy out for them. In all likelihood, they are going up against a team that won the season series against them, the team that knocked them out in five games the last time they made it into the second round, and also the team that has been to the last two Stanley Cups, including their win there last year. If the Leafs can’t get it right against the Senators, what chance do they have against a team like the Panthers that knows exactly how to beat them?

The Leafs had a strong season, they have talented players, and one would only assume they have the desire to win. And while Mitch Marner is right, winning a playoff round isn’t easy, there needs to be an acknowledgement that it shouldn’t look as impossible as the Leafs have made it look this year and in previous years as well. If this is truly as much as this core can give come springtime, it might be a time to move on from talented players and attempt to find players willing to be great in the games that matter most.