In this the magical time of year when every single player is rumoured to be coming to Toronto and every player not named Auston Matthews gets mentioned as a possible return, it&#8217;s worth taking a moment to look at the situation involving Fraser Minten and his potential to be dealt for a third line centre, a position that Minten could very well comfortably occupy for the Maple Leafs in 2025-26, but understandably isn&#8217;t quite ready to take on after the Four Nations tournament.
Most recently, Fraser Minten was the subject of being <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/report-leafs-trade-package-for-scott-laughton-could-include-a-first-or-fraser-minten">the potential return for Scott Laughton of the Philadelphia Flyers</a>. My initial biases are that I like Scott Laughton but also that I don&#8217;t think Scott Laughton is worth Fraser Minten and I would comfortably have the Leafs be worse at the third line centre spot for the playoffs than see them shoot themselves in the foot. That&#8217;s the initial reaction, but let&#8217;s go to some of the evidence of whether I am right or wrong on that.
Fraser Minten&#8217;s initial 4 points in 15 games as a Leaf don&#8217;t point to a case for him being the 3C on a competitive NHL team. You could argue that a lot of those games came with fourth line minutes playing alongside the likes of Steven Lorentz and Ryan Reaves and that his sheltering and limited usage doesn&#8217;t capture his offensive upside, but the reality is his points per game is at 0.27 so far and his 10 points in 16 games in the AHL translates to a 25 point total over 82 games (a modest increase to 0.30 points per game.) Scott Laughton represents an offensive upgrade to someone who is presently scoring at 0.48 points per game while getting two more minutes a night. More directly, Laughton is scoring 1.94 P/60 at 5v5 (the same rate as Mark Stone, Tim Stutzle, etc.) compared to Fraser Minten&#8217;s 1.11 P/60. That context makes a short term case for Laughton and short term is somewhat the name of the game for the Leafs.
There is also something to be said for Scott Laughton&#8217;s utilization, although 14:47 a night isn&#8217;t an overwhelming amount. Laughton is the leader of the Flyer&#8217;s forwards when it comes to time played shorthanded. He checks off the penalty killer/two-way player angle the Leafs are looking for, that Fraser Minten might eventually turn into but up until now has only been used in when injuries necessitate it. The potential for Fraser Minten is there, but as Nick Robertson has demonstrated during his time in Toronto, not all prospects reach their full potential and Minten&#8217;s potential might end up being a lot like what Scott Laughton is today.
As you can tell, I&#8217;m softening on my take but Laughton&#8217;s own six points in his first 31 NHL games back when he started his career reinvigorates my belief that a 20-year old with a $816k entry level cap hit shouldn&#8217;t be dealt for a 30 year old that while having one of his better seasons, has shown some inconsistencies throughout his career and is struggling to meet the needs of his current coach.
After Laughton&#8217;s first 31 game season, he followed that up with a 71 game season in the NHL, which shows how quickly Minten could be moved up. Laughton was only getting fourth line minutes, and it did take him until the age of 24 before playing what would be considered a third line role, so I guess project your views of what comes next for Minten onto this. It seems reasonable to consider Minten an NHLer next season and it seems reasonable in the year beyond that he could be the two-way 3C they want him to be. It&#8217;s also reasonable to consider that Laughton might take a step back with a change from the only team he has ever played on and already with fewer faceoffs this year, it&#8217;s entirely possible that once again Toronto might find themselves with someone who is better suited to the wing than the middle and will be back to the drawing board next season.
For Laughton, trading Minten seems like too much of a risk. The better move for the future for the Leafs is to keep Minten and explore potentially lighter demands from other trade deadline sellers, even if it means going with a rental option over someone with term.
That doesn&#8217;t mean completely dismiss the idea of trading Minten, but it probably means going after a better player. Even if the deal from the Leafs perspective becomes Minten plus another worthwhile asset, making a move for players that have been rumored to be available like Jared McCann, Brayden Schenn, or Ryan O&#8217;Reilly all represent a move for a player with consistent success, term, and even if it is a short term upside, an upside that it would be difficult to project onto Minten. For these teams Minten provides cap and actual dollar savings, a promising NHL ready(-ish) player, and someone who will better fit the competitive window of their club. If the Leafs are once again committing to getting older and more expensive, at least mitigate the buyer&#8217;s remorse risk.
Back to Minten and Laughton, it seems like the kind of information that the Flyers would like to put out into the world. If you meet their asking price of good NHL ready prospect or a 1st round pick, Laughton can be yours, and if the Leafs had a 2025 1st, it might be a price worth paying. That said, the Leafs shouldn&#8217;t be quick to move on from Minten and the Flyers are going to be hard pressed to get that price.
Data from <a href="http://naturalstattrick.com">Natural Stat Trick</a> and <a href="http://nhl.com">NHL.com</a>

In this the magical time of year when every single player is rumoured to be coming to Toronto and every player not named Auston Matthews gets mentioned as a possible return, it's worth taking a moment to look at the situation involving Fraser Minten and his potential to be dealt for a third line centre, a position that Minten could very well comfortably occupy for the Maple Leafs in 2025-26, but understandably isn't quite ready to take on after the Four Nations tournament.

Most recently, Fraser Minten was the subject of being <a href="https://theleafsnation.com/news/report-leafs-trade-package-for-scott-laughton-could-include-a-first-or-fraser-minten">the potential return for Scott Laughton of the Philadelphia Flyers</a>. My initial biases are that I like Scott Laughton but also that I don't think Scott Laughton is worth Fraser Minten and I would comfortably have the Leafs be worse at the third line centre spot for the playoffs than see them shoot themselves in the foot. That's the initial reaction, but let's go to some of the evidence of whether I am right or wrong on that.

Fraser Minten's initial 4 points in 15 games as a Leaf don't point to a case for him being the 3C on a competitive NHL team. You could argue that a lot of those games came with fourth line minutes playing alongside the likes of Steven Lorentz and Ryan Reaves and that his sheltering and limited usage doesn't capture his offensive upside, but the reality is his points per game is at 0.27 so far and his 10 points in 16 games in the AHL translates to a 25 point total over 82 games (a modest increase to 0.30 points per game.) Scott Laughton represents an offensive upgrade to someone who is presently scoring at 0.48 points per game while getting two more minutes a night. More directly, Laughton is scoring 1.94 P/60 at 5v5 (the same rate as Mark Stone, Tim Stutzle, etc.) compared to Fraser Minten's 1.11 P/60. That context makes a short term case for Laughton and short term is somewhat the name of the game for the Leafs.

There is also something to be said for Scott Laughton's utilization, although 14:47 a night isn't an overwhelming amount. Laughton is the leader of the Flyer's forwards when it comes to time played shorthanded. He checks off the penalty killer/two-way player angle the Leafs are looking for, that Fraser Minten might eventually turn into but up until now has only been used in when injuries necessitate it. The potential for Fraser Minten is there, but as Nick Robertson has demonstrated during his time in Toronto, not all prospects reach their full potential and Minten's potential might end up being a lot like what Scott Laughton is today.

As you can tell, I'm softening on my take but Laughton's own six points in his first 31 NHL games back when he started his career reinvigorates my belief that a 20-year old with a $816k entry level cap hit shouldn't be dealt for a 30 year old that while having one of his better seasons, has shown some inconsistencies throughout his career and is struggling to meet the needs of his current coach.

After Laughton's first 31 game season, he followed that up with a 71 game season in the NHL, which shows how quickly Minten could be moved up. Laughton was only getting fourth line minutes, and it did take him until the age of 24 before playing what would be considered a third line role, so I guess project your views of what comes next for Minten onto this. It seems reasonable to consider Minten an NHLer next season and it seems reasonable in the year beyond that he could be the two-way 3C they want him to be. It's also reasonable to consider that Laughton might take a step back with a change from the only team he has ever played on and already with fewer faceoffs this year, it's entirely possible that once again Toronto might find themselves with someone who is better suited to the wing than the middle and will be back to the drawing board next season.

For Laughton, trading Minten seems like too much of a risk. The better move for the future for the Leafs is to keep Minten and explore potentially lighter demands from other trade deadline sellers, even if it means going with a rental option over someone with term.

That doesn't mean completely dismiss the idea of trading Minten, but it probably means going after a better player. Even if the deal from the Leafs perspective becomes Minten plus another worthwhile asset, making a move for players that have been rumored to be available like Jared McCann, Brayden Schenn, or Ryan O'Reilly all represent a move for a player with consistent success, term, and even if it is a short term upside, an upside that it would be difficult to project onto Minten. For these teams Minten provides cap and actual dollar savings, a promising NHL ready(-ish) player, and someone who will better fit the competitive window of their club. If the Leafs are once again committing to getting older and more expensive, at least mitigate the buyer's remorse risk.

Back to Minten and Laughton, it seems like the kind of information that the Flyers would like to put out into the world. If you meet their asking price of good NHL ready prospect or a 1st round pick, Laughton can be yours, and if the Leafs had a 2025 1st, it might be a price worth paying. That said, the Leafs shouldn't be quick to move on from Minten and the Flyers are going to be hard pressed to get that price.

Data from <a href="http://naturalstattrick.com">Natural Stat Trick</a> and <a href="http://nhl.com">NHL.com</a>

Trading Fraser Minten only makes sense if there is a significant upgrade

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