The Toronto Maple Leafs have a problem.

It’s a good problem though. Usually, around this time of year, every media member and fan is saying the Maple Leafs need better goaltending and it’s the thing that will hurt them in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Coming into the season it seemed to be one of the biggest question marks yet again after signing the Florida Panthers Stanley Cup winning backup goaltender Anthony Stolarz to a two-year $2.5M AAV deal and having Joseph Woll as the other side of the tandem, durability issues and all.

Little did everyone realize in the moment it would the best goaltending season the Maple Leafs have had in a long time. First, Stolarz, and even though he missed over six weeks due to a knee injury, he has well out played his contract with a record of 13-8-3, 2.39 goals against average (GAA) and a .918 save percentage, playing like one of the best goalies in the league. On the other hand, Woll has taken the jump everyone hoped he would, with a record 24-12-0, 2.70 GAA and a .908 save percentage and some moments of brilliance mixed in.

One thing is for sure, both have changed the narrative on the goaltending in Toronto because of the seasons they’ve put together thus far, but it begs the question: If the playoffs started tomorrow, who would be the Game 1 starter?

So far this season there hasn’t been a lot of games where Stolarz plays and the Toronto Maple Leafs don’t have a chance because of his play. Even though the play has cooled down a little bit as of late, his status of being a playoff starter shouldn’t be in question.

Going into the numbers deeper than just his record and save percentage, Stolarz proves to be one of the best goalies in the NHL this season, keeping in mind that he has played fewer games as well. He has 60 goals against this year, while his expected goals against is 74.62, bringing his goals saved above expected to 14.6, good for 13^th best in the NHL (per moneypuck.com).

If you want to argue that his lack of playoff experience, or the fact he played terrible in the one game Sergei Bobrovsky got pulled from the playoffs last year against the Edmonton Oilers to defend the idea of starting Woll, then okay. But the experience that he gained from understanding what it takes to win a Stanley Cup and how he has to prepare for every game is what’s really going to help him this year.

Every year of Joseph Woll’s career he’s gotten a little bit better, but before this year he was looked at as the backup for the Toronto Maple Leafs. This year, though, he’s let it be known he is far more than an injury-prone backup goaltender. He’s come up in the big games with massive saves at the right time for his team, but has he been better than Stolarz?

Well, from the stat lines, not really. Stolarz has been better in basically every statical category, but it’s not like Woll is far behind. He’s allowed 94 goals this season, and with an expected goals against of 108.05, he’s got 14.0 goals saved above expected (per moneypuck.com). Woll has been what you would expect from an above average NHL starting goalie over the course of the season.

Where Woll’s argument to be the Game 1 starter really comes from is the surprising fact he’s got more playoff experience than Stolarz, and he’s been near perfect in the playoffs. In seven career playoff games, Woll has only started four times, but somehow he has been able to put up this type of stat line: 3-2 record 1.78 GAA and a .933 save percentage. By the eye test and stats, Woll’s game rises to an elite goaltender when the playoffs come around.

Take two massive games earlier this year against the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche that Woll played in, they won both and it was in part because he was outstanding. On the other hand, Stolarz has struggled in the bigger games as of late, and the blame can’t all be on him because the team didn’t play amazing, but losing to the Florida Panthers with an .880 save percentage and the Ottawa Senators with an .875 save percentage is not a good look.

Right now, for me, I think the Maple Leafs should start Woll for Game 1 as he’s been the better goalie in the bigger games this season, but in the event of a Game 1 loss, Stolarz should get the start for Game 2 so they can see who has the better game to decide which goalie the Maple Leafs will ride with. Either way, the outlook for the 2024-25 playoffs in net is much brighter than it has been in years past.