Anthony Cirelli is a core player for the Tampa Bay Lightning and because of the nature of his role, he rarely receives top billing. Cirelli has won two Stanley Cups, a Memorial Cup and recently helped Canada win the inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off, but he tends to eschew the spotlight. The 27-year-old has been synonymous with elite two-way impact since he entered the NHL and now Cirelli may be in line for his first Selke Trophy of his decorated career, in what should be the most hotly contested individual award this season.

Cirelli isn’t known for his offensive impact, but he’s registered 26 goals and 53 points in 75 games for the Lightning, playing an integral role in the top-six. He’s entering the prime of his career, which almost feels unfair, given that the Lightning are perpetually in contention, with several teammates already punching their tickets to the Hall of Fame. And while he was lauded as one of the NHL’s best all-around players for several years, Cirelli has elevated his game to a new level in 2024-25 and ought to edge Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov, Jack Eichel and a handful of other candidates.

Cirelli could potentially split votes with his primary linemate Brandon Hagel, and with the risk of sounding like an Atlantic Division specialist, it’s entirely possible that some combination of Cirelli, Hagel, Reinhart and Barkov could make up the top four, with Jack Eichel and Anze Kopitar expected to earn some down-ballot votes.

With some help from Natural Stat Trick, here’s how the four Lightning and Panthers candidates have fared at 5-on-5 this season. It’s worth noting that their league ranks are in parentheses, while we toggled the settings to 300 minutes or greater at 5-on-5, revealing a pool of 653 skaters.

Reinhart may have the best numbers overall, by a hair, but it’s certainly worth pointing out that his line, with Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe, face much easier assignments on average than the Hagel-Cirelli line, which often features Nick Paul on right wing. Barkov has also missed 12 games, which isn’t prohibitive, but it’s enough to shift the advantage in Cirelli’s favour. Leon Draisaitl would be a sneaky candidate for the Selke as well, and voters are going to pore over his numbers as he mounts his Hart Trophy campaign, but he spends the overwhelming majority of his faceoffs in the offensive zone, so a rare Hart-Selke sweep doesn’t seem possible.

“Tony Cirelli plays every shift like he thinks it is going to be his last and he doesn’t take for granted being in this league and, when you kind of have that way about you, guys seem to follow him,” Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said of Cirelli ahead of his 500th career NHL game on March 25, via team reporter Gabby Shirley. “He just does all of the selfless acts. He does all of the things that really take a lot of hard work and he is not afraid of it. Like I said, the best way I can put it is he just plays every shift like he’s never going to get another one.”

It’s not a team award, but Cirelli and Hagel have been essential to Tampa Bay’s sixth-ranked penalty kill, operating at a 81.6 percent success rate. Cirelli may also be the most opportunistic player in the NHL during the kill, with a league-best 2.81 individual expected goals, while Hagel ranks 8th, Barkov ranks 35th and Reinhart sits in 36th, while Florida ranks 10th in the NHL with a 80.9 kill rate.

Nikita Kucherov has been paired with Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel on a turbo-charged first line, but when he’s paired with Hagel and Cirelli, they are arguably the most dominant line in the NHL. Hagel-Cirelli-Kucherov lead all lines with a minimum of 150 minutes at 5-on-5 with a league-best 72.4 share of the expected goals via MoneyPuck, in just over 243 minutes together. When Kucherov is paired with Guentzel and Point, the expected goals share drops to 51.3 percent, although in fairness, it’s the fifth-most used forward line combination in the NHL this season. The point remains that Cirelli and Hagel provide elite defensive impact when joined by the NHL’s most electrifying offensive talent.

How is this about the Leafs? If the Leafs face off against the Panthers or Lightning, they will have to square off against a genuine shutdown forward combination that can create instant offence from turnovers, while tilting the ice. Whether it’s Auston Matthews or John Tavares who will square off against Cirelli and Hagel, or Barkov or Reinhart, they will be in tough against some of the NHL’s best forwards. In the closest Selke Trophy race in recent memory, Cirelli should win the award for the first time, while Barkov is the betting favourite. We’ll have to see if the electorate takes notice.