When it comes to my favourite “recent” Maple Leaf memories, the 2014-15 season is pretty high on my list. So much hope, so much excitement, so much bad hockey.

The Maple Leafs started off the year pretty decently, before it went off the rails and when it did, the long-called for firing of Randy Carlyle took place. That was quickly followed by one of the most ruthless sell offs of Maple Leaf players at the trade deadline in history and executed so creatively that every last bit of value was extracted from each departing player. It was a great feeling and inspired hope. Then came the lead up to the draft lottery and with the Maple Leafs sitting with the best odds, they did the impossible and didn’t Leaf it up, they landed the first overall pick.

In hindsight, maybe we were all naive about how the good the Maple Leafs were going to be, but I think we also have forgotten about how bad they were at the time and that glorious new era (that ultimately didn’t go anywhere) was still a hell of a lot better than the decade that preceded it.

Now, here we are again only this time the Leafs are still hanging onto their coach (for now), there was a sell off at the deadline but lacked the deep cuts of 2014-15, and the draft lottery situation is incredibly murky due to the Leafs presently sitting tied in 9th from the bottom in the league with 13 games remaining, and pick that will belong to the Boston Bruins if the Leafs don’t find their way into the bottom five.

It should be noted in the race to the bottom, the Vancouver Canucks are a runaway train of futility. They would need to make up 20 points on the Maple Leafs in the remaining schedule for Toronto have a shot at first overall. And when you are talking about bad teams making up ground on each other, the six points required for multiple teams to gain on the Maple Leafs in the remaining schedule a lot to ask and finding themselves in the top five will be difficult enough, let along the number three spot required for the Leafs to comfortably know they won’t be sending their pick to Boston.

In contrast, the path to pushing the Bruins pick out of the top ten seems easier, in theory. It doesn’t do the Maple Leafs much good and runs the risk of a slight chance at the number one or number two pick turning into a minimal shot at the lottery at all in exchange for feeling better about the Leafs give the Bruins. There’s also a play with pride aspect to the trying through the remaining games and handing the Bruins the 15th overall pick if they can. The players are going to play the way they play and it’s unlikely that a roster that wants to win plus a GM and Head Coach that still feel the pressure to win are going to actively tank, it’s just a matter of the Maple Leafs on ice product taking things in its nature direction and right now that seems like it is towards the bottom of the league not the middle of the pack.

At this point focusing on the Brandon Carlo trade and what the Leafs could potentially give the Bruins is just an exercise in making yourself angry. The hope comes from the draft lottery and that’s where taking a look at the odds regardless of where the Leafs end up reminds us that there is always a chance that things could break their way.

This year is a bit different and that is the fact that the Senators will be picking 32nd overall regardless of the draft lottery outcome. Their lottery pick (assuming they don’t make the playoffs) is null and void thanks to the Evgeny Dadonov trade fiasco. If the Senators were to be drawn in the draft lottery there would be an immediate redraw. As a result, here is what that looks like assuming the Senators don’t pull off the miracle of grabbing a playoff spot.

The Maple Leafs are presently sitting at 9th, the Sharks and Devils having games at hand makes it easy to consider the Leafs truly as 9th, and not the 11th spot in the lottery, which is the last spot that has a shot at the first overall pick with a 3% chance. The odds at the second overall pick will be skewed by whatever team wins the first overall selection, but essentially it is a 3.2% shot at that pick with the most likely case being that the Leafs would be standing pat and handing the Bruins the 11th overall pick or possibly the 12th. Maybe not idea but if it’s not a pick in the 6-10 range, it’s less of a bitter pill to swallow.

The Leafs aren’t likely to see their pick get any worse than 12th. The Flyers could fall off, maybe the Capitals, but the Western Conference teams with similar point totals to the Maple Leafs are all sitting in playoff positions and aren’t ground that can be gained in the lottery.

In contrast, the Maple Leafs are only four points up on the 6th overall Winnipeg Jets and six points up on the 4th overall New York Rangers, and the Maple Leafs have games at hand over all the teams below them. The Leafs already are sitting 8th from the bottom if you look at points percentage. They could find themselves (best case scenario) seeing their draft odds increase, giving them a better chance at selecting high in this draft, or (worst case scenario) handing the Bruins a pick in the 6-10 range.

Recent win and shootout loss aside, it should be easy to guess what direction this team will go in now that Auston Matthews has been shut down for the season. The Leafs remaining schedule involves eight games with teams in meaningful playoff races where they will need to win, two games against playoff contending juggernauts who will either be taking it easy against the Leafs or will trounce the Matthews-less Leafs if an effort is given, and four games against lottery teams that will just be clowning for the rest of their schedule just like Toronto.

For what it’s worth, MoneyPuck estimates that the Maple Leafs will finish seventh from the bottom at 83 or 84 points. With the Rangers playing well as of late and projected at 81 or 82 points, and the Jets being a solid team projected at 82-83 points, the Leafs might have a fair shot at 5th from the bottom overall at best.

It’s not likely that the Leafs are going to make tanking their priority and from a long term perspective maybe it is better to see the team playing with pride and trying to win without Auston Matthews. You could argue that character is the missing element more than a top prospect (I’d still take my chances on the top prospect) and the Leafs going down swinging isn’t a bad thing.

The most comforting thing is that draft lottery or no draft lottery there are only fourteen more games of this season with they win or lose.

TABLE Fare + Social is a vibrant food hall in the heart of Toronto’s financial district, offering a unique dining and social experience just steps from transit and the arena—perfect for pregame meals before tip-off. Open weekdays from 11am to 10pm, TABLE serves up morning treats, creative eats, and lively after-work events. With a private terrace overlooking Toronto’s elevated park, guests enjoy stunning views alongside year-round programming that includes food tastings, cooking classes, live music, and pop-up events designed to spark connection and creativity.
Follow along @Tablefood hall or tablefoodhall.com