Draft Numbers: CHL Player Projection Tool Rankings

Over the last couple of days we here at TLN have been using PCS% and The Projection Project to try and identify CHL players that may be overlooked leading up to the draft relative to where they are ranked.  Today we’re going to show you the full list of projection tool rankings.  In these tables will be not just the players that might be overlooked, but the projection numbers of every single CHL forward and defenseman ranked by NHL Central Scouting.

The tables are sorted using PCS% (this is the preferred tool because it uses more factors to develop it’s numbers than The Projection Project), but The Projection Project numbers will also have a column.

Note that PCS% is a player’s % chance of reaching 200 NHL games based on previous players with similar height, age, and level of production.  The Projection Project measures a players % chance of becoming an NHL player.

Without further ado, let’s get started:

THE FORWARDS

Player

Pos

League

CSS

PCS%

Proj%

Dylan Strome

C

OHL

4

100

88

Mitch Marner

RW/C

OHL

6

80

100

Mathew Barzal

C

WHL

11

38.24

55

Andrew Mangiapane

LW

OHL

85

31.91

24

Paul Bittner

LW

WHL

26

31.82

38

Nick Merkley

RW

WHL

23

31.25

52

Jansen Harkins

C

WHL

15

30.61

40

Travis Konecny

RW/C

OHL

14

28.13

55

Lawson Crouse

LW

OHL

5

27.27

35

Tim McGauley

C

WHL

165

25.37

21

Nikita Korostelev

RW

OHL

50

24.79

40

Jake DeBrusk

LW

WHL

19

24.24

40

Pius Suter

C

OHL

74

23.08

17

Graham Knott

LW

OHL

57

22.53

24

Blake Speers

RW

OHL

49

21.05

60

Timo Meier

RW

QMJHL

10

20.83

68

Filip Chlapik

C

QMJHL

18

19.64

43

Daniel Sprong

RW

QMJHL

20

18.92

55

Dryden Hunt

LW

WHL

111

18.21

21

Pavel Zacha

C

OHL

8

16.67

38

Luke Philp

C

WHL

172

16.67

38

Dennis Yan

LW

QMJHL

30

15.79

38

Zachary Senyshyn

RW

OHL

38

15.70

23

Mitchell Stephens

C/RW

OHL

112

14.97

27

Tyler Soy

C

WHL

78

14.18

27

Anthony Beauvillier

LW/C

QMJHL

33

12.5

64

Adam Brooks

C

WHL

176

12.5

13

Conor Garland

RW

QMJHL

86

11.76

38

Austin Wagner

LW

WHL

35

11.43

21

Matt Luff

RW

OHL

96

11.32

20

Jeremiah Addison

LW

OHL

129

11.30

24

Anthony Cirelli

C

OHL

67

11.29

21

Hayden McCool

C

OHL

147

10.70

21

Alexandre Goulet

C

QMJHL

166

10.66

22

Anthony Richard

C

QMJHL

77

10.34

60

Ryan Gropp

LW

WHL

71

10.29

24

Glenn Gawdin

C

WHL

59

10.05

22

Yakov Trenin

LW

QMJHL

48

10

43

Nathan Noel

LW/C

QMJHL

54

10.0

29

Jesse Gabrielle

LW

WHL

73

9.57

21

Giorgio Estaphan

C

WHL

144

9.34

23

Reid Gardiner

RW

WHL

162

9.27

21

Brett McKenzie

C

OHL

120

9.22

20

Brad Morrison

C

WHL

124

9.04

22

Trent Fox

C

OHL

139

8.59

21

Gabriel Gagne

RW

QMJHL

36

8.33

27

Adam Musil

C

WHL

61

7.69

21

Mike Davies

LW

OHL

185

7.59

17

Pavel Karnaukhov

LW

WHL

118

7.08

21

Matthew Bradley

C

WHL

126

6.8

20

Deven Sideroff

RW

WHL

134

6.31

21

Adam Marsh

LW

QMJHL

55

6.0

22

Cameron Askew

C

QMJHL

154

5.97

21

Gustaf Franzen

C

OHL

178

5.93

21

Jean-Christophe Beaudin

C

QMJHL

64

5.82

23

Connor Moynihan

LW

QMJHL

156

5.77

13

Dante Salituro

C/RW

OHL

109

5.56

55

Ethan Szypula

C

OHL

194

4.95

20

Cameron Hebig

C

WHL

177

4.93

20

Keegan Kolesar

RW

WHL

65

4.79

21

Brandon Lindberg

C

OHL

140

4.79

18

Artem Artemov

LW

OHL

150

4.74

20

Mathieu Joseph

RW

QMJHL

125

4.73

21

Adam Laishram

RW

OHL

168

4.55

21

Evan Weinger

RW

WHL

161

4.48

17

Kameron Kielly

RW

QMJHL

83

4.03

22

Mark Simpson

C

QMJHL

160

3.57

N/A

Alexandre Fortin

C

QMJHL

97

3.56

21

Matteo Gennaro

C

WHL

127

3.31

17

Samuel Dove-McFalls

LW

QMJHL

70

3.26

18

Evan Polei

LW

WHL

197

3.23

N/A

Spencer Smallman

RW

QMJHL

170

3.15

18

Matt Schmalz

RW

OHL

167

3.13

14

Alex Barre Boulet

C

QMJHL

141

3.01

22

Samuel Laberge

LW

QMJHL

119

2.78

17

Roy Radke

RW

OHL

104

2.78

15

Alexandre Alain

C

QMJHL

130

2.73

17

Jordan Fournier

RW

QMJHL

206

2.73

17

Grayson Pawlenchuk

LW

WHL

169

2.41

16

Gabriel Fontaine

C

QMJHL

179

2.03

15

Antoine Marcoux

C

QMJHL

193

1.76

17

Vladimir Tkachev

LW

QMJHL

159

0.76

69

Connor McDavid

C

OHL

1

0.0

100

Evgeni Svechnikov

LW

QMJHL

17

0.0

64

Nicolas Roy

C

QMJHL

45

0.0

22

Overall, there aren’t too many surprises in this table.  Most of the players ranked very highly show up near the top of the table and the players ranked lower show up closer to the end.

I guess I should briefly talk about the 3 players given a 0% chance of reaching 200 NHL games played by the PCS tool.  First of all, the reason Connor McDavid scored a 0% is because he has no historic comparables – because his numbers were so good.  Basically, Connor McDavid is so good that he pretty much broke the tool.

It’s a similar case for Evgeni Svechnikov, who is a 6″3′ forward that put up 1.42 points per game in the QMJHL this season as a 17-year-old.  That doesn’t happen too often.  He did have 5 comparables, but that’s not a lot.  One of them was Jordan Caron, who may very well reach 200 NHL games one day, maybe even next season (he’s at 153 so far).  In any event, I wouldn’t read much into Svechnikov’s score here as he’s just a fairly unique player.

The same can’t be said for Nicolas Roy though.  True, he’s 6″4′.  But he actually had 44 historic comparables – 44 players historically similar to Nicolas Roy this season and not a single one of them reached 200 NHL games played.  For a player already considered to have low upside, that doesn’t bode well for Roy or the team that ends up drafting him.

Other than that, this table is mostly by the book.  There are a few names that score a lot higher than you’d think, and those mostly seem to be the ones we’ve identified as being overlooked.  There are also a few names that have scores a little lower than expected (such as Pavel Zacha, Daniel Sprong, and Anthony Beauvillier) but those players usually score highly in The Projection Project.  They’re also pretty talented, and numbers aren’t everything.

Anyways, make of this table what you will.  The point isn’t so much for me to discuss it for you, but for you to look at it yourselves and start to draw your own conclusions.

THE DEFENSEMEN

Player

Pos

League

CSS

PCS%

Proj%

Rasmus Andersson

D

OHL

93

46.67

67

Vince Dunn

D

OHL

32

38.46

64

Ryan Pilon

D

WHL

24

38.30

41

Thomas Schemitsch

D

OHL

91

37.04

55

Travis Dermott

D

OHL

46

31.25

55

Chris Martenet

D

OHL

81

30

20

Ivan Provorov

D

WHL

7

29.41

71

Nicolas Meloche

D

QMJHL

40

27.78

41

Brandon Carlo

D

WHL

25

26.92

23

Mitchell Vande Sompel

D/F

OHL

34

25.0

70

Noah Juulsen

D

WHL

22

23.73

41

Jakub Zboril

D

QMJHL

12

21.28

41

Jeremy Roy

D

QMJHL

21

20.0

64

Andrew Nielsen

D

WHL

52

18.06

24

Parker Wotherspoon

D

WHL

43

17.24

31

Gustav Bouramman

D

OHL

75

16.16

41

Thomas Chabot

D

QMJHL

16

14.81

34

Brendan Guhle

D

WHL

56

14.81

24

Connor Hobbs

D

WHL

72

14.69

24

Michael Fora

D

WHL

205

14.14

N/A

Chaz Reddekopp

D

WHL

82

14.10

20

Kyle Capobianco

D

OHL

44

13.11

34

Loik Leveille

D

QMJHL

121

11.67

54

Jeremy Lauzon

D

QMJHL

42

11.22

34

Matt Spencer

D

OHL

68

10.96

28

Riley Bruce

D

OHL

210

10.0

12

Sergey Zborovskiy

D

WHL

103

9.76

20

Tate Olson

D

WHL

146

9.62

23

Tyler MacArthur

D

OHL

175

9.43

19

Michael Zipp

D

WHL

189

9.15

23

Kade Jensen

D

WHL

184

8.70

20

Simon Bourque

D

QMJHL

76

8.0

31

Alexandre Carrier

D

QMJHL

89

7.84

54

Austin Strand

D

WHL

101

7.77

19

Connor Schlichting

D

OHL

LV

7.52

N/A

Keoni Texeira

D

WHL

143

7.14

23

Justin Lemcke

D

OHL

137

6.89

24

Ethan Bear

D

WHL

97

6.25

31

Cameron Lizotte

D

OHL

99

6.20

16

Philippe Myers

D

QMJHL

157

6.15

16

Marcus Crawford

D

OHL

207

5.69

27

Devante Stephens

D

WHL

116

5.66

16

David Henley

D

QMJHL

95

5.61

15

Kevin Davis

D

WHL

153

5.59

24

Joe Gatenby

D

WHL

174

5.46

19

Colton White

D

OHL

128

5.21

23

Olivier Galipeau

D

QMJHL

142

5.12

20

Guillaume Brisebois

D

QMJHL

41

4.67

24

Bailey Webster

D

QMJHL

122

4.35

15

Jason Bell

D

QMJHL

187

4.29

27

Brandon Crawley

D

OHL

201

3.86

20

Stephen Desrocher

D

OHL

145

3.68

19

Tristen Pfeifer

D

WHL

135

3.13

N/A

Jarett Meyer

D

OHL

201

0.0

12

Jack Van Boekel

D

QMJHL

180

0.0

N/A

Again, nothing too surprising here that we didn’t already discuss in our article about overlooked CHL blueliners.

In fact, this table is almost as by the books as you can get.  Almost every player ranked highly by Central Scouting shows up somewhere in the top half of this table, and all the lower-ranked players show up later on.  One exception might be QMJHL defenseman and Team Canada representative at this year’s U18s, Guillaume Brisebois.  Ranked 41st by NHL Central Scouting, Brisebois is given just a 4.67 PCS% score, good for 8th-last on this list.

Again, make of this table what you will.  Use it to educate yourself more on some of the lesser-known players of this draft class.  And make sure to bookmark this page, because this is something you might want to refer back to, especially as the picks start officially rolling in later this month.

THANKS

On a final note, I just wanted to take the time to thank our friends at Canucks Army who were kind enough to let us at TLN use their still-in-development PCS% tool.  I also wanted to thank the fine folks who created The Projection Project for their invaluable new tool for evaluating young players.  Shout out to CHL Stats too, another product of Canucks Army writer Josh Weissbock.  You are all awesome.

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