Photo Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern/USA TODAY SPORTS
Yesterday, we went over the Leafs’ statistical progress as a team over the month of November. The overall conclusion was that they’re getting pucks closer to the net and that the spike in puck-stopping has gone a long way in making the team Actually Good (TM). Continuing the trend, I dove into just about every statistic that I could pull out for October and November for individual players at and came up with three names in each direction that deserve to be pointed out for their progression from month to month.
3. Nazem Kadri
— Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) November 27, 2016
Kadri is a fitting choice to have on this list, seeing as his universally-accepted Coming Out Party was on November 1st against the Oilers. That’s when people started to accept that his two-way game has come a long way from one that was already quietly decent in prior seasons, and that he could contribute as much defensively as he does on the scoresheet.
In November, Kadri scored 11 points in 14 games, while being played for a little under 16 minutes a night in a shadow role against opposing top lines whenever possible. Despite a drop in offensive-to-defensive zone start ratio from 46% to 33%, Kadri saw gains in every single relative shot metric, gained nearly a primary point per hour at even strength compared to the month prior, and generated more individual attempts, particularly in scoring chance areas. Many will dub him as the team’s best player in November, which is impressive given that he had the worst goaltending support on the team (his on-ice SV% was 0.882).
2. Frederik Andersen
Connor McDavid and Frederik Andersen have a moment while Morgan Rielly figures out what he wants to do with the puck pic.twitter.com/57x70RSFh1
— Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) November 30, 2016
We shouldn’t throw the goaltending completely under the bus, though; this was the month where Frederik Andersen bounced back. Many (myself included) were nervous for varying reasons after his first five starts in October, but it seems that the game on the 27th against the Panthers changed everything.
Since then, save for his role in the 7-0 Los Angeles blowout, he’s been nothing short of obscene. Andersen went from a 2-2-3 record and 0.876 save percentage in October to a 0.931 save percentage in November. Looking at the team numbers, I don’t think this is a matter of shot quality; opponents got more of their attempts on goal, and a higher ratio of them were scoring chances or deemed Expected Goals by Corsica’s model. More likely, Andersen is just healthy and confident again, and that’s a great thing to see.
1. Nikita Zaitsev
Nikita Zaitsev marking Alex Ovechkin. This is why he’s here. pic.twitter.com/5aCZPzlypj
— Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) November 27, 2016
People have been hyped up for Nikita Zaitsev since, well, months before the Leafs signed him, and in the past few weeks, he’s shown why he was worth the wait and the investment. In terms of team-relative shot metrics, he was the most improved Leafs player in November and it wasn’t even close. He saw his Relative Corsi go up by 10%, Fenwick by 13%, Shots by 16%, Expected Goals By 12%, and Scoring Chances by 17%; highest of all roster regulars in every statistic (Marincin was higher in xG and Holland in SCF). This is despite his zone starts actually getting worse (down 4.2% to 43.2%), and being trusted as the team’s top right-handed defenceman on Pair 1.
There are probably a combination of factors going on here. Some of it is going from Matt Hunwick to Morgan Rielly, and some of it is likely just an adjustment to North America; he had the skating ability for NHL ice all along, but factoring for the narrower angles along the boards is a tricky thing for a defenceman. His production didn’t go up at all, but he put more pucks toward the net and at some point will get that sought-after first goal of his NHL career.
3. William Nylander
William Nylander blasts by Luca Sbisa and sets up Auston Matthews, who doesn’t convert. pic.twitter.com/iV9h7C2Min
— Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) November 5, 2016
Look, we’re not going to spin a “he doesn’t care” narrative like much of the media has, or call him expendable, or any of that garbage. But the reality of the matter is that Nylander was extremely good in October and he wasn’t as good in November. Nylander saw his even-strength production drop to just 0.4 goals and primary assists per hour, and saw dips in every shot-based possession/play driving metric. His biggest drop was in team-relative Goals For Percentage (a disgustingly bad -31%), but the fact that the Leafs shot at just 3.9% with him on the ice likely doesn’t help much.
Nylander will no doubt recover, but a slip from a hot start combined with horrible puck luck has probably made all the recent gossip so much easier to push.
2. Connor Carrick
I’m not saying Connor Carrick got away with a penalty here, but the refs tanked this call harder than the Sabres tanked in 2014 and 2015: pic.twitter.com/gVPzxmoiqk
— Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) November 4, 2016
Here’s another example of a player who has seen big dips from the month prior, but only because they were fantastic in that previous month. Carrick’s primary point generation has dried up, even with the team shooting well with him on the ice (13.5%), to… well, he had no primary points at even strength in November. His overall production is actually up, but that’s due to an extra secondary assist.
On the other side of the game, Carrick is also down in every team-relative metric; Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, Goals, Expected, Goals, and Scoring Chances. But it should be noted that, despite this, he was a positive on the team in every single one of those metrics as well, and that his offensive zone starts are slightly down as well.
So this one, more so than any of them, isn’t a case of Carrick going from good to bad. It’s a case of him going from Toronto’s best play-driving possession in October, playing the best hockey of his career, to just being pretty good in November. I still think he’s for real, in any event.
1. Roman Polak
Aaron Ekblad makes it 1-1 for the Panthers. Note Roman Polak being a half-second behind everything, and Matt Hunwick screening Andersen. pic.twitter.com/u2VmAOvvGM
— Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) November 18, 2016
I hate to beat up on Roman Polak. Despite being a wannabe Computer Boy, there are few people I enjoy watching when I don’t have work to do more than him. He’s fearless, plays at 110% every night, and everybody I’ve ever talked to about him has said nothing but good things about him as a person. He’s someone you want to like.
But he was a polarizing player in October and just awful in November. There’s no way around that. Polak’s drop in shot-based metrics was very similar to Carrick’s, but rather than starting from Mount Everest, he was starting from something closer to that half-ski hill at Earl Bales Park. Polak had the worst relative Corsi and Shots For on the Leafs in November, had the second lowest Relative Fenwick to Ben Smith, and near the bottom of Relative Expected Goals (in fairness: so was Most-Improved Zaitsev, and both combined are still only halfway to Smith).
Polak did have above-water relative Goals-For numbers, which has led to a lot of arguments about whether he’s influencing opportunity beyond shot attempts, but I’d imagine that the fact that Andersen with from a 0.901 to a 0.950 with him on the ice probably makes the biggest difference. Maybe there’s something to that. I want to believe there’s a reason that he and fellow PDO Spiker Matt Hunwick had the goals go in their favour. But I’m not sure I see it, both in the spreadsheets and with the eyes.
In the shift prior, Roman Polak gets the opposite luck. Nearly turned into a poster by Viktor Arvidsson but a skate corner saves him: pic.twitter.com/3oL8BiTd29
— Jeff Veillette (@JeffVeillette) November 16, 2016
Either way, he’s gone from “he had that one good night” to “oh no he’s chasing the puck again”, and gets the Wooden Spoon here.