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2016 NHL Draft: NHLe Numbers
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Shawn Reis
Jun 16, 2016, 09:00 EDTUpdated:
NHLe is a neat little stat that helps you, on a very basic level, project how the production of a given player would translate to the NHL. And since there are NHL translation numbers available across many leagues, perhaps more useful in NHLe is the fact that it allows you to compare prospects in a given draft class across leagues.
It has its limitations, though, and it’s not any sort of catch-all statistic. Still, it’s more grist for our mill, and can be useful on a basic level for fans and scouts alike.
Without further ado, what I’ve done is calculate the NHLe for 65 of the top-rated prospects in this year’s draft class. So, a player’s given NHLe number is what the tool says a player’s production would be translated to an 82 game NHL season.
The list isn’t meant to really influence your views or anything like that but rather give you just a few more numbers to have at your disposal so you can enjoy this year’s draft a teeny bit more.
Here you go ( * = European Rankings)

FORWARDS

Player
Rank
League
Position
NHLe
Matthew Tkachuk
2
OHL
LW
49
Alex DeBrincat
21
OHL
RW
44
Auston Matthews
1*
NLA
C
42
Dylan Gambrell
67
NCHC
C
39
Adam Brooks
72
WHL
C
37
Alex Nylander
3
OHL
LW
35
Pierre-Luc Dubois
1
QMJHL
LW
34
Brayden Burke
63
WHL
LW
34
Logan Brown
7
OHL
C
33
Adam Mascherin
42
OHL
RW
33
Vitali Abramov
29
QMJHL
RW
31
Taylor Raddysh
36
OHL
LW/RW
29
Michael McLeod
13
OHL
C
28
Luke Kunin
11
Big-10
C/W
27
Tage Thompson
20
Hockey-East
RW
27
Pascal Laberge
28
QMJHL
RW
26
Will Bitten
43
OHL
C/RW
25
Nathan Bastian
35
OHL
RW
24
Maxime Fortier
145
QMJHL
RW
24
Julien Gauthier
12
QMJHL
RW
23
Max Jones
14
OHL
LW
22
Sam Steel
30
WHL
C
22
Dillon Dube
41
WHL
C/W
22
Noah Gregor
45
WHL
C
22
Simon Stransky
48
WHL
LW
22
Brett Howden
22
WHL
C
21
Tyler Benson
24
WHL
LW
21
Boris Katchouk
25
OHL
LW
21
Jordan Kyrou
34
OHL
RW
21
Dmitri Sokolov
129
OHL
RW
20
Yegor Korshkov
7*
KHL
RW
19
Vladimir Kuznetsov
55
QMJHL
W
18
Jack Kopacka
33
OHL
LW
17
Timothy Gettinger
37
OHL
LW
17
Hudson Elyniuk
68
WHL
LW
17
Patrik Laine
2*
SM-Liiga
LW
17
Givani Smith
54
OHL
LW
16
Jordan Stallard
65
WHL
C
16
Carl Grundstrom
6*
SHL
LW
16
Carsen Twarynski
64
WHL
15
Nicholas Caamano
69
OHL
RW
15
Cliff Pu
75
OHL
C/W
13
Jesse Puljujarvi
3*
SM-Liiga
RW
13
Rasmus Asplund
4*
SHL
LW
13
Beck Malenstyn
73
WHL
C/W
8
  • As we can see, one of the limitations of NHLe is that it often undervalues younger players playing in European leagues. Laine has an NHLe of 17 and Puljujarvi has an NHLe of 13.
  • I’m gonna go full confirmation bias here and say the table further backs up the idea of Adam Mascherin and Vitali Abramov as two overlooked players in this draft. They’re the first to pop up among the consensus group of elite forwards in this draft (Gambrell and Brooks technically are but they’re not first-time draft-eligibles).
  • Just giving the table a quick scan it’s comforting to know that the more you produce, the higher you’re typically going to be ranked. The aforementioned limitations of NHLe with younger players in European leagues toys with this a little bit, but for the most part, the further down the list you go the less enticing the names are.

DEFENSEMEN

Player
Rank
League
Position
NHLe
Samuel Girard
38
QMJHL
LD
24
Cam Dineen
39
OHL
LD
23
Mikhail Sergachyov
8
OHL
LD
22
Jakob Chychrun
4
OHL
LD
21
Charlie McAvoy
6
Hockey-East
RD
21
Jake Bean
15
WHL
LD
21
Frederic Allard
32
QMJHL
RD
20
Olli Juolevi
5
OHL
LD
19
David Quenneville
144
WHL
RD
19
Lucas Johansen
26
WHL
LD
16
Victor Mete
74
OHL
LD
15
Kale Clague
27
WHL
LD
14
Maxime Lajoie
44
WHL
LD
13
Luke Green
40
QMJHL
RD
12
Markus Niemelainen
52
OHL
LD
11
Sean Day
59
OHL
LD
10
Riley Stillman
66
OHL
LD
9
Libor Hajek
31
WHL
LD
8
Logan Stanley
19
OHL
LD
7
Keaton Middleton
71
OHL
LD
3
  • Cam Dineen, Frederic Allard, and David Quenneville are all names I hear at least some people say are underrated and the production level certainly backs that up. In the case of Quenneville, his draft stock is really hurt by the fact that he’s 5″8′.
  • Girard, obviously, is also very productive, and similar to Quenneville size is maybe the biggest detractor there (he’s 5″9′). I only saw him once this year, in the top prospects game, so I really can’t speak to him. But as a guy who’s liked by most as a late first-rounder, the production certainly provides further intrigue.
  • Charlie McAvoy’s numbers compare quite nicely with the other top defensemen in this draft.
  • I’m not big on Libor Hajek or Logan Stanley because I don’t think there’s enough offense or general puck skills to make them more than bottom-pairing guys in the NHL. Obviously, the numbers back that up in this case.

CONCLUSION

There are no conclusions to be made from this. NHLe is a useful surface-level tool, particularly because it allows you to adjust for league and better compare prospects across them. This article is more just a way to make some of the NHLe numbers for this draft class more available so you can have them at your disposable and make your own judgments based off of them.
*=among European skaters
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