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2016 NHL Draft: NHLe Numbers

Shawn Reis
7 years ago
NHLe is a neat little stat that helps you, on a very basic level, project how the production of a given player would translate to the NHL. And since there are NHL translation numbers available across many leagues, perhaps more useful in NHLe is the fact that it allows you to compare prospects in a given draft class across leagues.
It has its limitations, though, and it’s not any sort of catch-all statistic. Still, it’s more grist for our mill, and can be useful on a basic level for fans and scouts alike.
Without further ado, what I’ve done is calculate the NHLe for 65 of the top-rated prospects in this year’s draft class. So, a player’s given NHLe number is what the tool says a player’s production would be translated to an 82 game NHL season.
The list isn’t meant to really influence your views or anything like that but rather give you just a few more numbers to have at your disposal so you can enjoy this year’s draft a teeny bit more.
Here you go ( * = European Rankings)

FORWARDS

PlayerRankLeaguePositionNHLe
Matthew Tkachuk2OHLLW49
Alex DeBrincat21OHLRW44
Auston Matthews1*NLAC42
Dylan Gambrell67NCHCC39
Adam Brooks72WHLC37
Alex Nylander3OHLLW35
Pierre-Luc Dubois1QMJHLLW34
Brayden Burke63WHLLW34
Logan Brown7OHLC33
Adam Mascherin42OHLRW33
Vitali Abramov29QMJHLRW31
Taylor Raddysh36OHLLW/RW29
Michael McLeod13OHLC28
Luke Kunin11Big-10C/W27
Tage Thompson20Hockey-EastRW27
Pascal Laberge28QMJHLRW26
Will Bitten43OHLC/RW25
Nathan Bastian35OHLRW24
Maxime Fortier145QMJHLRW24
Julien Gauthier12QMJHLRW23
Max Jones14OHLLW22
Sam Steel30WHLC22
Dillon Dube41WHLC/W22
Noah Gregor45WHLC22
Simon Stransky48WHLLW22
Brett Howden22WHLC21
Tyler Benson24WHLLW21
Boris Katchouk25OHLLW21
Jordan Kyrou34OHLRW21
Dmitri Sokolov129OHLRW20
Yegor Korshkov7*KHLRW19
Vladimir Kuznetsov55QMJHLW18
Jack Kopacka33OHLLW17
Timothy Gettinger37OHLLW17
Hudson Elyniuk68WHLLW17
Patrik Laine2*SM-LiigaLW17
Givani Smith54OHLLW16
Jordan Stallard65WHLC16
Carl Grundstrom6*SHLLW16
Carsen Twarynski64WHL15
Nicholas Caamano69OHLRW15
Cliff Pu75OHLC/W13
Jesse Puljujarvi3*SM-LiigaRW13
Rasmus Asplund4*SHLLW13
Beck Malenstyn73WHLC/W8
  • As we can see, one of the limitations of NHLe is that it often undervalues younger players playing in European leagues. Laine has an NHLe of 17 and Puljujarvi has an NHLe of 13.
  • I’m gonna go full confirmation bias here and say the table further backs up the idea of Adam Mascherin and Vitali Abramov as two overlooked players in this draft. They’re the first to pop up among the consensus group of elite forwards in this draft (Gambrell and Brooks technically are but they’re not first-time draft-eligibles).
  • Just giving the table a quick scan it’s comforting to know that the more you produce, the higher you’re typically going to be ranked. The aforementioned limitations of NHLe with younger players in European leagues toys with this a little bit, but for the most part, the further down the list you go the less enticing the names are.

DEFENSEMEN

PlayerRankLeaguePositionNHLe
Samuel Girard38QMJHLLD24
Cam Dineen39OHLLD23
Mikhail Sergachyov8OHLLD22
Jakob Chychrun4OHLLD21
Charlie McAvoy6Hockey-EastRD21
Jake Bean15WHLLD21
Frederic Allard32QMJHLRD20
Olli Juolevi5OHLLD19
David Quenneville144WHLRD19
Lucas Johansen26WHLLD16
Victor Mete74OHLLD15
Kale Clague27WHLLD14
Maxime Lajoie44WHLLD13
Luke Green40QMJHLRD12
Markus Niemelainen52OHLLD11
Sean Day59OHLLD10
Riley Stillman66OHLLD9
Libor Hajek31WHLLD8
Logan Stanley19OHLLD7
Keaton Middleton71OHLLD3
  • Cam Dineen, Frederic Allard, and David Quenneville are all names I hear at least some people say are underrated and the production level certainly backs that up. In the case of Quenneville, his draft stock is really hurt by the fact that he’s 5″8′.
  • Girard, obviously, is also very productive, and similar to Quenneville size is maybe the biggest detractor there (he’s 5″9′). I only saw him once this year, in the top prospects game, so I really can’t speak to him. But as a guy who’s liked by most as a late first-rounder, the production certainly provides further intrigue.
  • Charlie McAvoy’s numbers compare quite nicely with the other top defensemen in this draft.
  • I’m not big on Libor Hajek or Logan Stanley because I don’t think there’s enough offense or general puck skills to make them more than bottom-pairing guys in the NHL. Obviously, the numbers back that up in this case.

CONCLUSION

There are no conclusions to be made from this. NHLe is a useful surface-level tool, particularly because it allows you to adjust for league and better compare prospects across them. This article is more just a way to make some of the NHLe numbers for this draft class more available so you can have them at your disposable and make your own judgments based off of them.
*=among European skaters

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